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The 2016 Democratic Primary Quiz

11 Apr

The 2016 Democratic Primary Quiz

Richard Charnin
Updated Aug.8, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

Data and calculations used in this quiz are from the Democratic Primaries Spreadsheet  which is linked from my blog posts in the 2016 election category.

      1. Iowa caucus: Clinton won how many consecutive coin flips?  a) 6, b)8, c)10
      2. Iowa caucus: Clinton won the entrance poll by 50.1-49.9%. The Party-ID split was 76% Dem-24% Ind. But applying the Gallup survey 30% Dem-70% Ind split, Sanders has a) 56%, b) 60%, c) 64%.
      3.  Massachusetts: Clinton won 50.3-48.7%.  But Sanders won the exit poll by 52.1-45.7%. He won in locations using hand counted paper ballots with  a) 54%, b) 55%, c) 58%.
      4. Illinois: Clinton won 50.9-49.1%. But Sanders won the unadjusted exit poll with a) 50.8%, b) 51.0%, c) 51.2%.
      5.  Michigan exit poll: Bernie had a) 50%, b) 51%,c) 52% of the vote.
      6. Missouri: Bernie had 49.9% of the two-party vote and a) 50.9%, b) 51.9%, c) 52.9%% in the unadjusted exit poll.
      7. Ohio: Hillary had 56.9% of the vote and 51.9% in the unadjusted exit poll. The probability of the discrepancy is  a) 0.1%, b) 0.5%, c) 1.0%. 
      8. Georgia: Hillary had 72%. Voting on  a) DRE, b) Optiscan, c) Paper ballots.
      9. Arizona: 4.1% decline (17,000 votes) in Maricopa County  voter turnout (50.2%) from 2008. Turnout in the other 14 AZ counties increased by  8.3%. This is a) a statistical fluke, b) of no consequence, c) indicates massive fraud.
      10. Arizona Yavapai County Daily Courier exit poll: Bernie led by 63-37%. Hillary won  the county  with a) 52%, b) 54%, c) 56%
      11. Sanders:  Won 7  primaries (41% share) and 12  caucuses (65% share). The 24% discrepancy is a) of no significance, b) just a statistical fluke, c) indicates massive election fraud. 
      12. Wisconsin final exit poll:  vote shares are not available for 124 (7%) minority respondents.  This is because a) they did not respond to the exit poll, b) their responses were insignificant, c) there is no logical explanation
      13. Wisconsin: Sanders had 51% of blacks in the final pre-election poll. But he had only 31% in the adjusted exit poll.  Which of the following is false? The difference is a) plausible, b) unlikely, c) necessary to  force  a match to the recorded vote.
      14. Wisconsin: Sanders had 68% of whites at the 4pm exit poll timeline, but just 59% in the final exit poll. Which of the following is false? The difference is a) plausible, b) unlikely, c) necessary to  forced  a match to the recorded vote.
      15. Adjusted exit polls: unadjusted polls are always forced to match the recorded vote. This is a) standard operating procedure, b) unscientific, c) assumes zero fraud, d) all of the above.
      16. Wyoming caucus: Bernie won by 56-44% yet Hillary picked up 11 delegates to Bernie’s 7. This is a) no big deal, b) the way the system works, c) proof of a rigged election.
      17. Recorded shares:  Sanders has a) 45.3%, b) 47.4%, c) 48.4%
      18. Gallup-weighted shares:  Sanders has a) 50.3%, b) 51.9%, c) 53.6%
      19. New York: Hillary won by 57.9-42.1%. She won the exit poll by 52-48%. The probability that the 11.8% discrepancy was due to chance is: a) 1 in 97,000, b) 1 in 126,000, c) 1 in 242,000
      20. Probability that Sanders exit poll discrepancy from the recorded vote would exceed the margin of error in 11 of 26 primaries is  a ) 1 in 18 billion, b) 1 in 47 billion, c) 1 in 77 billion
      21. Election fraud:  Sanders did better than his recorded vote because  a) voter rolls were manipulated, b) 11 exit polls exceeded the margin of error, c) the number polling locations were reduced , d) all
      22. Approval ratings : Clinton  had a 40% approval rating. Approval rating is a) highly correlated to exit polls, b) Sanders rating is consistently higher than Clinton , c) candidates with less than 50% approval always lose the true vote in an election, d) all
      23. Connecticut  primary: Clinton won the primary by 51.8-46.4%.  Sanders led the preliminary exit poll  by 55-40%. The probability of the shift is a) 1%, b) 2%, c) ZERO
      24.  Paper Ballots: Clinton won non-paper ballot primaries by 65-33%. She won paper ballot primaries by 50-48%. The probability that the discrepancy  was not due to fraud is a) 1%, b) 2%,  c) ZERO
      25. Adjusted exit polls: matched Clinton’s recorded share to within  a) 0.06%, b) 0.5%, c) 0.9%
      26. California:  Sanders’ highest vote share in 58 counties was in Humboldt county (71%). This was likely due to the fact that a) it is very liberal, b)  the only county in the U.S. which uses an Open Source system to audit the votes, c)  it was just a coincidence.
      27. California: Clinton led in votes counted on Election Day by 56.4-43.6% . Sanders led after Election Day with a) 47.8%, b) 51.7%, c) 52.7%.
      28. New York: Clinton won by 57.1-47.9%. The 2 Party-ID exit poll split was 83% Democrats and 14% Independents.  Sanders had 72% of Independents and 38% of Democrats. Based on the Gallup survey, the estimated split is  53% Independents and 47% Democrats.  Using the Gallup split, Sanders had a) 51%, b) 52%, c) 53%
      29. Red states (11): Clinton had 70%. The split was 59% Independents and 41% Democrats. If Sanders had 55% of Independents, Clinton needed 106% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. It is a) implausible, b) impossible, c) an incorrect calculation.
      30. Nevada caucus: Clinton won by 52.7-47.3%.  The exit poll split was 81% Democrats and 18% Independents. Sanders had 76% of Independents and 41% of Democrats.  But according to the Gallup 2-party survey, an estimated 58% were Independents and 42% Democrats. Applying the Gallup split with the same vote shares, Sanders won by 61-39%.  Clinton needed 93% of Democrats to match the recorded vote.
        That is a) implausible, b) impossible, c) an incorrect calculation

 

Answers:
1a 2c 3c 4c 5c 6b 7a 8a 9c 10c 11c 12c 13c 14a 15d
16c 17a 18c 19b 20c 21d 22d 23c 24c 25a 26b 27c 28c 29b 30a

 
11 Comments

Posted by on April 11, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

Tags: , ,

11 responses to “The 2016 Democratic Primary Quiz

  1. Carol

    April 11, 2016 at 11:32 pm

    Richard, can you post the answers so people don’t have to read everything all the way through? People are lazy, doncha know?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      April 12, 2016 at 1:23 am

      I was going to wait a bit, but I just put them in.

       
  2. Frater Plecticus

    April 13, 2016 at 6:04 am

     
    • Richard Charnin

      April 13, 2016 at 11:25 am

      Not quite right? Can you explain why in one sentence? I know you provided a link, but I would like your comment.

       
  3. Frater Plecticus

    April 13, 2016 at 2:05 pm

    In total, just over 800 Laramie County voters showed up to make their presidential preference known, and 621 people turned in surrogate ballots.

    Of those in-person voters, 329 sided with Clinton and 474 were for Sanders.

    Of the more than 600 surrogate ballots received, 402 went in favor of Clinton and a mere 215 went to Sanders.

    Clinton received 731 of those 1,430 total votes while Sanders took 689 – a 42-vote difference.

     
  4. Richard Charnin

    April 13, 2016 at 10:40 pm

    Well,that’s not what I read: https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/investigate-clinton-surrogate-voting-fraud-wyoming

    But I guess I read wrong. I could not believe 620-0 surrogates.
    I will change the question.

     
  5. Virginia

    April 28, 2016 at 3:19 am

    how much would it cost to mount one’s own exit polls so one could publicize the raw data?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      May 22, 2016 at 5:42 pm

      The pollsters need to ask just ONE question: Who did you vote for?
      You need one or more analysts to determine the polling locations and create the questionnare.
      Figure two pollsters per location.
      And another to tabulate the results.

       
  6. Oma Vic McMurray

    May 22, 2016 at 10:05 am

    Any chance you plan to update the quiz? it’s a great idea, keeps ‘the list’ going for those of us that only keep short equations…thanks for all you do for us!

     
  7. waltertraxel

    August 12, 2016 at 12:50 am

    Reblogged this on waltertraxel.

     

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