## NY Democratic Primary: Your forecast

18 Apr

Richard Charnin
April 18, 2016

You can listen to the pundits who told you that Hillary is leading by 17%, implying that it is all over and it’s time to just anoint Hillary, so why even bother to vote? Or you can actually go out and vote.

Now these so-called  election forecasters (who never mention the fraud factor) are going to try and project the vote to within 1% – with Hillary winning of course. I’m not going to tell you what the final vote will be. I’m not that smart.

But I will say this: Win or lose, Bernie will do much better than reported in the media.

So do the forecast. Below is a matrix table which shows approximately how Bernie will do if he gets 45-65% of the white vote and 45-65% of non-whites. That’s 25 scenarios. It’s called a sensitivity analysis.  Bernie’s total vote share is a function of his share of whites and non-whites.

Fully expect that one of the 25 scenarios will closely match Bernie’s final recorded vote.

Know this: if the CNN exit poll indicates that Bernie had 45% of whites and 45% of non-whites (or 45% overall) do not believe it. In fact, expect that Bernie will do 5-8% better than the recorded vote. Remember the exit poll is always adjusted to match the recorded vote.

So here goes.  Pick out the cell which contains Bernie’s share that you believe will be closest to the final recorded vote. In other words predict Bernie’s recorded share of the white vote and non-white vote, knowing that it will surely understate his True Vote.

For instance, cell C2 = 56.2%

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Race………….. NYReg Sanders Clinton
White…………… 76.6% 55.0% 45.0%
Non-white……… 23.4% 60.0% 40.0%
TOTAL…………….100% 56.2% 43.8%

………………………..Sanders % White
……………………..45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0%
………………………A……..B……..C……..D…….E
%Non-White………………. Sanders TOTAL
1. 65.0%………….. 49.7% 53.5% 57.3% 61.2% 65.0%
2. 60.0%………….. 48.5% 52.3% 56.2% 60.0% 63.8%
3. 55.0%………….. 47.3% 51.2% 55.0% 58.8% 62.7%
4. 50.0%………….. 46.2% 50.0% 53.8% 57.7% 61.5%
5. 45.0%………….. 45.0% 48.8% 52.7% 56.5% 60.3%

Posted by on April 18, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

### 14 responses to “NY Democratic Primary: Your forecast”

1. April 18, 2016 at 2:30 pm

I think the recorded vote will be 51.2% but the True Vote is definitely higher, it has been this whole campaign!!

2. April 19, 2016 at 2:42 pm

Richard, could you please post where we can go to get the exit poll data BEFORE it becomes “adjusted?” The URLs? I want to get screenshots and I encourage others to do so too!

• April 19, 2016 at 5:52 pm

Look for CNN screenshots just before closing.

3. April 19, 2016 at 2:47 pm

Also, I saw on CNN (or MSNBC) that the “first exit polls” would be available at 5 pm EST… is there not a place to see them BEFORE this… I’m thinking they could be “adjusted” more than once… before 5 pm and then again after the machine vote is reported.

• April 19, 2016 at 5:54 pm

I do not have the answer to that.

4. April 19, 2016 at 3:02 pm

One more important question Richard… have citizen conducted exit polls been successful/useful to mathematicians like yourself…. if so, I’m betting we could A LOT of Bernie supporters involved in this! I’m talking about this: http://electionintegrity.net/contact_us.cgi?to=simon&subject=Like+to+help+collect+data

5. April 19, 2016 at 6:04 pm

Richard, will you release whether or not you detect voter machine fraud in NY this evening/tomorrow? If you find this in NY, I personally think we should organize citizen exit polls in all the upcoming states!

• April 19, 2016 at 7:20 pm

I will probably post on NY. But don’t rely on my analysis. You should run citizen exit polls regardless.

6. April 19, 2016 at 8:13 pm

Richard, I’m looking at CNN, CBS, and other pages but I cannot find an exit poll that shows percentages/votes for Bernie vs. HRC…. it’s 8:12 pm in NY… shouldn’t they be up?

7. April 19, 2016 at 8:15 pm

Motivating people will be key if it is to be done on a mass scale… and also with enough people in different places to make it readily believable… having your data for NY would be key in doing so I think.

8. April 19, 2016 at 9:32 pm

At least on the page I was reloading, CNN did not release exit poll data until about 1 minute after the polls closed. Is this different from what they did before? Weren’t you able to download the info just BEFORE the poll closed?

I’m wondering if they didn’t release the data until it had already been adjusted some, although of course many of the votes are not in yet.

CNN also announced on TV that the split was Bernie 48% to HRC 52%… but this was right after the polls closed.

9. April 19, 2016 at 10:40 pm

Richard and others, take a look at the Reddit thread below…. the OP saw the same 48% to 52% stat I saw on CNN right as the polls closed…. so everyone is wondering why the numbers coming in don’t approach this… we REALLY need to get the word out about voting machine fraud and the real exit poll versus the “adjusted” exit poll to match the rigged results…. right now, the vast majority of people have NO CLUE ABOUT THIS!!