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Tim Robbins: We Need to Fix Our Broken Election System

05 May

Richard Charnin
May 5, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Tim Robbins, a fine actor and dedicated progressive activist, wrote We Need to Fix Our Election System in the Huffington Post. We need more of his kind.

“Going into Tuesday’s Democratic primary in Indiana, polls showed Bernie Sanders trailing Hillary Clinton by around 7 percent. The final tally had Sanders up by 6 percent, a 13 point difference that seems to follow a pattern of polling discrepancies in this primary process that are quite troubling. A couple of weeks ago I shared a post containing statistics compiled from CNN and the New York Times figures comparing Democratic Party primary exit polls and final election results. The numbers show a significant discrepancy between the two, favoring Hillary Clinton in all but one of the primaries by an average of 9.02 percent and in the New York primary by 16 percent. The post carried an incendiary headline, suggesting election fraud, which caused quite a ruckus. I’m glad it did. We need to have this discussion.

This posting led to the predictable onslaught of internet trolls calling me crazy, conspiracy theorist, etc., all the talking points that are being masterminded by the sleaze-meisters over at David Brock’s Correct the Record, a Hillary Clinton Super PAC. The post also brought criticism from the mainstream media, but that is no surprise to me. I’ve been there before. In the 2002-3 campaign to stop the Iraq war, others and I were characterized as crazy, conspiracy theorists, etc., as mainstream media shamefully abdicated its role in a functioning democracy by becoming a propaganda arm for Bush and Co. Yes. The New York Times did that, and the Washington Post and ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, PBS, NPR etc. We, the millions who across the world were saying no, who were aware of the lies that Bush and Co. were telling, were ignored by the mainstream media, marginalized as radicals and told by pundits to shut our unpatriotic mouths.

So when that happened to me again two weeks ago, often by the same organizations that had marginalized me for my opposition to the war in 2002-3, I recognized the familiarity of it all. Could my post have touched a nerve? It certainly did with Joshua Holland, who wrote in Raw Story that I was involved with a “rabbit hole of misinformation and conspiracism.” He then goes on to refute the claims of election fraud with seemingly empirical statistical evidence. Now, I am not a mathematician. But Richard Charnin is. He has two master’s degrees in applied mathematics and has followed presidential elections since 1952. He took issue with Mr. Holland’s article. I defer to his expertise: “Election Fraud: Response to Joshua Holland.”

Read the rest of the article here. View the 2016 Democratic primaries spreadsheet.

This is how the exit pollsters forced a match to the IN recorded vote.

Indiana exit poll
Unadjusted 1323 resp Clinton Sanders
Men 42% 40% 60%
Women 58% 48% 52%
 Total 100% 44.64% 55.36%
Final Adjusted 1323 resp Clinton Sanders
Men 41% 43% 57%
Women 59% 50% 50%
 Total 100% 47.13% 52.87%

DATA SOURCES
The table below was created by Theodore de Macedo Soares (tedsoares@yahoo.com)
CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing.
The NY Times is the source of the reported vote counts.

Inline image

 

 
 

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23 responses to “Tim Robbins: We Need to Fix Our Broken Election System

  1. Nicholas Nowlin

    May 6, 2016 at 12:38 am

    How do I rebut people who say exit polling does not account for early voting?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      May 6, 2016 at 12:48 am

      Nothing to rebut. Early absentee voting can also be rigged.
      There are many ways to steal an election.
      1. Disenfranchise.
      2. Stuff ballots (absentee)
      3. Flip votes on voting machine and/or central tabulator.

      The unadjusted exit poll numbers are very close to the true vote.
      The adjusted final exit poll is matched to the recorded vote – even if it is fraudulent.

       
  2. Nicholas Nowlin

    May 6, 2016 at 3:13 am

    they say exit polls do not count early voting…….this is absolute bullshit to me but there is something to counter that argument right?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      May 6, 2016 at 9:43 am

      I already answered that.

       
      • Nicholas Nowlin

        May 6, 2016 at 4:57 pm

        I’m trying to convince the a critic. I believe. I’m trying to get help from you on how to respond. If you have some time I’d like to get you on my podcast.

         
      • Richard Charnin

        May 6, 2016 at 7:07 pm

        I need more info.

         
  3. Mary Shumay

    May 6, 2016 at 8:16 am

    Purging voter rolls counts!

     
  4. Bev

    May 6, 2016 at 11:51 am

    Richard, I could not get onto your site yesterday evening after many tries. I am glad I can today.

    I have to say I could not be prouder of you for all the work you have steadfastly done over many years even though it must have seemed like barking alone in a desert. Your work does seem to be getting much better recognition and traction now. If your brave work with so many other people’s activism, changes the outcome of this election, we will have to have a giant celebration for saving each other, democracy, the future, kids, climate, and our own and other species. What a wonderful purpose for our lives and legacy that would be. We must do this now when it counts, or continue for as long as it takes.

     
    • Bev

      May 6, 2016 at 12:00 pm

      I meant Yuuuge celebration if we can change history to save each other.

      #ExitPollGate

      How appropriate, from the star of the Divergent movies:

      https://twitter.com/shailenewoodley

      Shailene Woodley Verified account ‏@shailenewoodley Apr 26
      Shailene Woodley Retweeted Lee Camp [Redacted]
      #ExitPollGate #FeelTheBern buckle yer bootstraps ladies and gents. our work is just beginning.
      Shailene Woodley added,
      Lee Camp [Redacted] @LeeCamp
      #Bernie supporters – let’s get #ExitPollGate to trend on Twitter! The exit polls show election fraud. #BernieOrBust
      ………

      Thank you Richard.

       
  5. Bev

    May 8, 2016 at 11:10 am

    Just to let you know when I googled your title above, Tim Robbins: We Need to Fix Our Broken Election System, I could not find it on google. However, the very first listing was the Huffingtonpost article by Tim Robbins titled We Need to Fix Our Broken Election System.

    Once I typed in &filter=0 at the end of the google url search address at the bar at the top of the page, there was your article listed as the second article under the Huffingtonpost article by Tim. This is not the first time. People may now need to put that &filter=0 on searches of your articles to see if more appear, or if they cannot find one of your articles.

     
  6. Nicholas Nowlin

    May 9, 2016 at 2:42 pm

    Send me an email.

    nick200505@comcast.net

     
    • Richard Charnin

      May 9, 2016 at 5:25 pm

      Nicholas, if you have a comment, post it here.

       
      • Nicholas Nowlin

        May 10, 2016 at 4:54 pm

        I want to arrange an interview with you for a progressive podcast. I think what you have to say is important and want to leverage independent media to get it out.

         
  7. Cindy

    May 10, 2016 at 8:37 pm

    I too have had issues pulling up your site sometimes… the first time it happened, I tried off and on for hours… I was concerned they had taken it down.

    I find it interesting today that MSNBC called the race for Bernie right at closing, but gave no exit poll numbers on percentages… but CNN is holding back and saying things like “we’ll have to wait and see”… are they waiting for the “adjusted” poll result, I wonder.

     
  8. Bev

    May 11, 2016 at 11:55 am

    I posted the following at Naked Capitalism, hopefully it will take:
    In links: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/05/links-51116.html#comment-2594438

    “Hillary Clinton Gives U.F.O. Buffs Hope She Will Open the X-Files – (Will She Admit to Being an Alien?) New York Times (David L). Yes, this is not The Onion.”

    How about opening a “Why” File on the tossed 90,000 affidavit ballots (in NY) now. Were they and others paid to do that?

    https://twitter.com/LeeCamp?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
    http://yt2fb.com/elections-board-paid-millions-before-ny-primary-hi/

    Lee Camp [Redacted] Verified account ‏@LeeCamp

    The Elections Board was paid MILLIONS before the NY Primary??, Hillary’s new money laundering, and much more……
    …….

    And, about the “x” files. Carl Sagan had the highest security clearances and highest motivation and was determined to find any evidence of extraterrestrial life during his government tenure during the Clinton years. So, Hillary would also know what Carl found…there was nothing.

    As Carl said the biggest claims need the biggest evidence-paraphrased. (I add, that applies especially to who is really winning during these caucuses and primaries?) The explanation that finally makes sense of all the hubbub about area 52 with no evidence is this:

    It was the time of Sputnik, and our government and military were scared witless. The crashed advanced alien capture was an encouraged story to try to convince the Russians not to attack a technologically backward U.S., by suggesting we had leapfrogged them so that they were the technologically backward nation. There. You are welcome.

    Now all of you who were so looking forward to “the alien” story are potentially very interested in real science, which is even better than science fiction (our imaginations have not come close to the awesomeness of real science), and can discard pseudo science which has no evidence. You are now redirected to reality, science, and the need for real evidence.

    This is very helpful as regards are current problems with primaries that have those evidence missing/hidden e-voting, e-scanning machines owned by the extreme, abusive right wing giving us the “F” files of election Fraud.

    Open caucuses with real evidence of public hand/head counts and hand counted paper ballots precincts have Bernie Sanders winning at around 65%. The no evidence, hidden evidence voting machines have Bernie losing at around 41%. People you need to get smart faster, though many of you already are.

    https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/05/05/tim-robbins-we-need-to-fix-our-broken-election-system/#comments

    Tim Robbins: We Need to Fix Our Broken Election System
    Richard Charnin

    Tim Robbins, a fine actor and dedicated progressive activist, wrote this article in the Huffington Post. We need more of his kind.
    ……..

    In comments:
    #ExitPollGate

    How appropriate, from the star of the Divergent movies:

    https://twitter.com/shailenewoodley

    Shailene Woodley Verified account @shailenewoodley Apr 26
    Shailene Woodley Retweeted Lee Camp [Redacted]
    #ExitPollGate #FeelTheBern buckle yer bootstraps ladies and gents. our work is just beginning.
    Shailene Woodley added,
    Lee Camp [Redacted] @LeeCamp
    #Bernie supporters – let’s get #ExitPollGate to trend on Twitter! The exit polls show election fraud. #BernieOrBust

     
  9. Quin Hearn

    May 14, 2016 at 5:20 pm

    Hello Mr. Charnin. I’m a college mathematics instructor. I make YouTube videos for my students. I made one using your data. I just posted it here: https://youtu.be/5qfHnlMUJ1o for your review, because I mention you in the video. Also, I would be appreciative if you had a chance to look it over and tell me if you think everything looks good. I used a Binomial Probability approach to keep things simple and I know that is a bit different from what you did. Thank you in advance. Quin Hearn

     
    • Richard Charnin

      May 14, 2016 at 9:24 pm

      Hi Quin,

      It is an excellent video. But my calculations for the MoE are different.
      View my latest post.
      https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/05/12/the-primaries-hillary-wins-the-lottery/

      I use the standard formula for calculating the MoE of an exit poll, unlike the one used in the table.
      The table you show is not mine. I copied it from another site.
      Review my adjusted table for 26 primaries.

      The probability that at least 11 exit polls would exceed the MoE is 1 in 8.3 BILLION:
      The Poison distribution is an excellent approximation of the Normal. It is used in a myriad of applications to determine the probability of rare events (like exceeding the 0oE).
      P = 1 – poisson (10,0.025*26,true)

      The exit poll margin of error (MoE) is based on the number of respondents and the vote shares:
      MoE =1.3*1.96*sqrt (EP*(1-EP)/N), where EP is the 2-party exit poll share, N is the number of respondents, 1.3 is the exit poll cluster factor adjustment. There is a 95% probability that the exit poll will fall within the MoE.

      The probability of fraud is calculated using the Normal distribution. The probability is based on the difference (DIFF) between the exit poll share (EP) and recorded share (RS) less the MoE. If DIFF=MoE, the probability is 97.5%.

      Let me know if you have any questions.

       
  10. Nathan

    May 19, 2016 at 2:04 pm

    Hi, I’m trying to figure out about exit polls. I can’t find digestable information. I took a class in statistics but only 1 during the summer as required for my degree, so I’m in no way an expert. My question is this.

    I see that there are discrepancies between the votes and the exit polls, and this is illustrated as a %. I’ve also heard that a certain % is indicitive of election fraud. But, my question, what determines the % at which its indicitive of election fraud.

    I watch a video of the NY BOE hearing and one guy cited you, and he cited the NY BOE own words that something like 2 or 3% is the indicator. But where can I find this information that, in fact, NY BOE themselves say 2 or 3%? Thanks.

     
  11. Eric Hildeman

    June 8, 2016 at 3:01 pm

    Hi, Richard. I’m finding your blog posts intriguing. Your math is excellent, but I’m deeply concerned about the changes in the exit polling data you talk about. For example, where you cite Illinois exit polls by CNN giving Bernie a 50.7% to 47.4% margin of victory over Hillary, but the current CNN exit polls give Hillary a victory of 50.41% to 48.83% for Bernie. Surely, you have saved the original exit poll data somewhere? Perhaps CNN’s original numbers are cached? Did you do a screen shot?

     
  12. Richard Charnin

    June 9, 2016 at 12:57 am

    The data source is described in the post. View the table. Thee data was captured by Ted Soares. His e-mail is indicated below the table.
    Did you see the table? Why don’t you contact him if you have questions?
    https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/05/05/tim-robbins-we-need-to-fix-our-broken-election-system/

     

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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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