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Primary Exit Polls: True vs. Recorded Vote

11 Aug

Richard Charnin
Updated: August 14, 2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primary spread sheet

There were 25 Democratic primary exit polls and 2 entrance polls (IA and NV). Clinton won the average adjusted exit poll (the recorded vote) by  56.6-43.4%. Sanders won the True Vote Model (TVM) by 52.3-47.7%.  The only difference between the TVM and the adjusted exit poll is voter turnout. 

The TVM uses a combination of the adjusted exit poll vote shares  and the latest Gallup Party ID survey percentages as a proxy for voter turnout. But this is conservative; it assumes there was no vote flipping on the central tabulators and/or the DREs.  Bernie must have done better than his average 52.3% share. 

Unadjusted exit polls: http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/wv/Dem
Gallup Party-ID Surveys: http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx  

True Vote Party-ID  is estimated for each state based on the proportional change in National Party-ID  from 2014 to 2016.  The 2-party share of Independents increased from 37.4% to 57.3%. 

Bernie likely won an estimated 37 primaries and caucuses. The True Vote Model assumes that the Gallup survey of voter preference reflects actual turnout. This was not the case in closed primaries. On the other hand, mostly Bernie voters were purged from the rolls. And the model assumes no vote flipping which is unrealistic.

The model indicates that Bernie won a) 17 of 27 exit polled primaries (including the NV and IA entrance polled caucuses), b) 8 of 12 primaries where there were no exit polls (CA KY MT NM SD DE RI OR) and c) all 12 caucuses with a 65% average share.

Confirmation of the model: IA and NV
Bernie won the recorded vote in 14 caucuses with a 65% share. The model indicates that he won the IA entrance poll with 63.6% and NV with 61.7%.

 

2014 Exit poll Party ID    2016 Gallup Party-ID   
Dem Ind Ind % 2-party Dem Ind Ind % 2-party
40.5% 24.2% 37.4% 32.0% 43.0% 57.3%

True Vote Model Spreadsheet

c- closed primary

Avg  Exit Poll 56.6% 43.4%  True 47.7% 52.3%
 Recorded  Gallup
AL Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 23.0% 54.2% 45.8% 57.6% 54.2% 45.8%
DEM 77.0% 88.0% 12.0% 42.4% 88.0% 12.0%
Total 100.0% 80.2% 19.8% 100.0% 68.5% 31.5%
AR Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 28.0% 42.7% 57.3% 57.5% 42.7% 57.3%
DEM 72.0% 79.3% 20.7% 42.5% 79.3% 20.7%
Total 100.0% 69.0% 31.0% 100.0% 58.2% 41.8%
CT c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 22.0% 23.7% 76.3% 66.3% 23.7% 76.3%
DEM 78.0% 60.8% 39.2% 33.7% 60.8% 39.2%
Total 100.0% 52.6% 47.4% 100.0% 36.2% 63.8%
FL c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 21.0% 42.7% 57.3% 59.3% 42.7% 57.3%
DEM 79.0% 72.1% 27.9% 40.7% 72.1% 27.9%
Total 100.0% 65.9% 34.1% 100.0% 54.7% 45.3%
GA Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 24.0% 51.5% 48.5% 55.7% 51.5% 48.5%
DEM 76.0% 78.1% 21.9% 44.3% 78.1% 21.9%
Total 100.0% 71.7% 28.3% 100.0% 63.3% 36.7%
IA Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 24.0% 27.4% 72.6% 68.2% 27.4% 72.6%
DEM 76.0% 57.3% 42.7% 31.8% 57.3% 42.7%
Total 100.0% 50.1% 49.9% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1%
IL Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 23.0% 30.3% 69.7% 50.6% 30.3% 69.7%
DEM 77.0% 57.0% 43.0% 49.4% 57.0% 43.0%
Total 100.0% 50.9% 49.1% 100.0% 43.5% 56.5%
IN Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 24.0% 28.0% 72.0% 57.5% 28.0% 72.0%
DEM 76.0% 53.8% 46.2% 42.5% 53.8% 46.2%
Total 100.0% 47.6% 52.4% 100.0% 38.9% 61.1%
MA c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 35.0% 33.3% 66.7% 69.8% 33.3% 66.7%
DEM 65.0% 60.1% 39.9% 30.2% 60.1% 39.9%
Total 100.0% 50.7% 49.3% 100.0% 41.4% 58.6%
MD Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 20.0% 43.3% 56.7% 47.0% 43.3% 56.7%
DEM 80.0% 71.0% 29.0% 53.0% 71.0% 29.0%
Total 100.0% 65.5% 34.5% 100.0% 58.0% 42.0%
MI Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 31.0% 28.3% 71.7% 52.9% 28.3% 71.7%
DEM 69.0% 58.5% 41.5% 47.1% 58.5% 41.5%
Total 100.0% 49.2% 50.8% 100.0% 42.5% 57.5%
MO Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 26.0% 33.0% 67.0% 55.2% 33.0% 67.0%
DEM 74.0% 56.1% 43.9% 44.8% 56.1% 43.9%
Total 100.0% 50.1% 49.9% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7%
MS Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 14.0% 66.0% 34.0% 55.5% 66.0% 34.0%
DEM 86.0% 86.2% 13.8% 44.5% 86.2% 13.8%
Total 100.0% 83.4% 16.6% 100.0% 75.0% 25.0%
NC c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 30.0% 37.0% 63.0% 58.0% 37.0% 63.0%
DEM 70.0% 65.9% 34.1% 42.0% 65.9% 34.1%
Total 100.0% 57.2% 42.8% 100.0% 49.1% 50.9%
NH c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 42.0% 25.5% 74.5% 72.7% 25.5% 74.5%
DEM 58.0% 48.1% 51.9% 27.3% 48.1% 51.9%
Total 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3%
NV c  Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 19.0% 24.5% 75.5% 58.5% 24.5% 75.5%
DEM 81.0% 59.3% 40.7% 41.5% 59.3% 40.7%
Total 100.0% 52.7% 47.3% 100.0% 38.9% 61.1%
NY c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 17.0% 28.0% 72.0% 53.0% 28.0% 72.0%
DEM 83.0% 64.1% 35.9% 47.0% 64.1% 35.9%
Total 100.0% 57.9% 42.1% 100.0% 44.9% 55.1%
OH Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 26.0% 33.3% 66.7% 53.9% 33.3% 66.7%
DEM 74.0% 65.2% 34.8% 46.1% 65.2% 34.8%
Total 100.0% 56.9% 43.1% 100.0% 48.0% 52.0%
OK c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 34.0% 23.3% 76.7% 50.0% 23.3% 76.7%
DEM 66.0% 55.3% 44.7% 50.0% 55.3% 44.7%
Total 100.0% 44.5% 55.5% 100.0% 39.3% 60.7%
PA c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 18.0% 26.5% 73.5% 47.2% 26.5% 73.5%
DEM 82.0% 62.5% 37.5% 52.8% 62.5% 37.5%
Total 100.0% 56.1% 43.9% 100.0% 45.6% 54.4%
SC Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 25.0% 46.5% 53.5% 55.2% 46.5% 53.5%
DEM 75.0% 83.0% 17.0% 44.8% 83.0% 17.0%
Total 100.0% 73.9% 26.1% 100.0% 62.8% 37.2%
TN Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 29.0% 45.5% 54.5% 58.5% 45.5% 54.5%
DEM 71.0% 75.9% 24.1% 41.5% 75.9% 24.1%
Total 100.0% 67.1% 32.9% 100.0% 58.1% 41.9%
TX Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 24.0% 46.9% 53.1% 58.8% 46.9% 53.1%
DEM 76.0% 72.4% 27.6% 41.2% 72.4% 27.6%
Total 100.0% 66.3% 33.7% 100.0% 57.4% 42.6%
VA Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 24.0% 42.0% 58.0% 55.0% 42.0% 58.0%
DEM 76.0% 71.8% 28.2% 45.0% 71.8% 28.2%
Total 100.0% 64.6% 35.4% 100.0% 55.4% 44.6%
VT Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 44.0% 8.0% 92.0% 52.4% 8.0% 92.0%
DEM 56.0% 18.1% 81.9% 47.6% 18.1% 81.9%
Total 100.0% 13.7% 86.3% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2%
WI Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 29.0% 28.0% 72.0% 52.1% 28.0% 72.0%
DEM 71.0% 49.5% 50.5% 47.9% 49.5% 50.5%
Total 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 100.0% 38.3% 61.7%
WV c Party-ID Clinton Sanders Party-ID Clinton Sanders
IND 44.0% 26.6% 73.4% 50.9% 26.6% 73.4%
DEM 56.0% 65.9% 34.1% 49.1% 65.9% 34.1%
Total 100.0% 48.6% 51.4% 100.0% 45.9% 54.1%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/pubchart?oid=1968941681&format=image

 
8 Comments

Posted by on August 11, 2016 in 2016 election

 

Tags: , ,

8 responses to “Primary Exit Polls: True vs. Recorded Vote

  1. Linda Crump

    August 12, 2016 at 10:09 am

    thank you for all your hard work Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2016 21:38:36 +0000 To: justlc@live.com

     
  2. Sue

    August 13, 2016 at 4:22 pm

    Shows Sanders won 18 of the 25 states. Has anyone sent these stats to the International Media? And does anyone know what the rules are, if any for rescinfing a primary?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      August 14, 2016 at 1:59 am

      This is a model, not proof. It assumes that the the Gallup survey of voter preference reflects actual turnout.
      This was not the case in closed primaries. On the other hand, mostly Bernie voters were purged from the rolls.
      And the model assumes no vote flipping which is unrealistic.
      So it is conceivable that Bernie won 17 of the 27 exit polled primaries (NV and IA were entrance polled caucuses).
      Bernie won all the other 12 caucuses.
      Of the 12 primaries which were not exit polled, Bernie likely won 9: CA KY MT NJ NM SD DE RI OR
      In total, Bernie likely won an estimated 41 primaries and caucuses.

       
  3. Robin

    August 15, 2016 at 5:07 pm

    We collaborated to gather reams of screen shot evidence from the refresh data off tabulators, in every single state. Our evidence is not for show and tell rather, to try and CONVICT a couple of big, bad actors. You will just have to hold your Michael Keenan breath, sir.

     
  4. Valerie Cullins

    August 31, 2016 at 1:53 am

    I really appreciate all of your work in showing the election fraud discrepancies. We will never have what we need unless we first fix the corruption in our election process.

     

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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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