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Pre-election Presidential polls: preparing for a stolen election

19 Oct

Pre-election Presidential polls: preparing for a stolen election

Richard Charnin
Oct. 19, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

The media wants voters to believe that Clinton has a substantial lead in the polls – while maintaining that the Russians are working with Wikileaks and  are preparing to hack the voting machines for Trump. But the media won’t discuss the history of election fraud going back decades on proprietary voting machines and central tabulators. And that 2016 Election fraud is proven by exit poll discrepancies  favoring Clinton in 24 of 26 states.

The latest Fox poll shows Clinton leading  45-39% over Trump. Johnson and Jill Stein have 5% and 3%, respectively.The Party-ID weights are 43% Dem, 38% Rep and 19% Ind.  Candidate vote shares were calculated to match the poll results.

In order to match the Fox poll, Clinton had approximately 35% of Independents and Trump 30%. Approximately 17% of Independents support Johnson and Stein while 18% (can we consider them Independents?) show no preference..

But the latest Gallup party affiliation survey indicates that 40% are Independents,   32% Democrats and 28% Republicans. Using the survey percentages, and assuming that 50% of Independents support Johnson and Stein, then Trump is leading Clinton by 36-35%, with 16% for Stein and 13% for Johnson.

Applying the Gallup weights adjusted proportionally to each of  15 battleground states, Trump leads by 36.9-34.5% and wins 13  states with a 142-51 lead in electoral votes.

In anticipation of the final presidential debate, it is instructive to recall the Democratic primaries. Eleven of 26 exit poll discrepancies exceeded the margin of error – a 1 in 77 billion probability. 

Wikileaks documents provide confirmation that the primaries were rigged against Sanders while Donald Trump easily won the Republican primaries.

Other than Fox News, the Clinton email scandal is ignored in the mainstream media. They would rather focus on  Trump’s locker room comments years ago- which are no different than the language used every day on cable and in films.  The media would rather dwell on this non-issue than discuss the monumental Clinton/DNC scandals unfolding every day.

 

View the  spreadsheet calculations and source data links.

The Fox Poll

Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein na
Ind 19% 35% 30% 10% 7% 18%
Dem 43% 85% 5% 2% 2% 6%
Rep 38% 5% 82% 6% 2% 5%
 Calc 100% 45.1% 39.0% 5.0% 3.0% 7.9%
 Poll 100% 45.0% 39.0% 5.0% 3.0% 8.0%

 True Vote: Gallup party affiliation survey 

Gallup  Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 40% 20% 30% 20% 30%
Dem 32% 80% 5% 5% 10%
Rep 28% 5% 80% 12% 3%
 Calc 100% 35.0% 36.0% 13.0% 16.0%
 Poll 92% 45.0% 39.0% 5.0% 3.0%
 Diff 8% -10.0% -3.0% 8.0% 13.0%

15 Battleground states

Gallup Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 38.7% 20% 30% 20% 30%
Dem 31.6% 80% 5% 5% 10%
Rep 29.7% 5% 80% 12% 3%
 Calc 100% 34.5% 37.0% 12.9% 15.7%
 Poll 95.0% 45.4% 42.9% 5.4% 1.3%
 Diff 5.0% -10.9% -6.0% 7.5% 14.4%
 Gallup   Party-ID
EV Dem Rep Ind
AZ 11 22.8% 27.3% 49.8%
CO 9 24.4% 26.2% 49.5%
FL 29 30.6% 27.8% 41.5%
GA 16 30.8% 34.2% 35.0%
IA 6 24.5% 25.4% 50.0%
ME 4 25.2% 21.5% 53.3%
MI 16 34.7% 29.4% 35.9%
MN 10 34.7% 31.0% 34.3%
MO 10 30.8% 35.0% 34.2%
NC 15 32.9% 24.2% 42.9%
NV 6 31.3% 27.5% 41.2%
OH 18 32.4% 33.4% 34.2%
PA 20 39.1% 29.2% 31.8%
VA 13 31.6% 33.4% 35.0%
WI 10 33.9% 32.6% 33.5%
 Total Evote  193
Average 30.6% 29.2% 40.1%
Wtd Avg 31.6% 29.7% 38.7%
 Polls       Trump Clinton
 10/19 Clinton Trump Johnson Stein EVote EVote
AZ 42 44 9 1 11
CO 45 37 10 3 9
FL 48 44 4 1 29
GA 42 48 4 0 16
IA 39 43 6 2 6
ME 44 36 9 3 4
MI 47 37 7 4 16
MN 43 43 4 2 tie tie
MO 42 47 4 1 10
NC 48 47 4 0 15
NV 47 40 7 0 6
OH 45 45 6 1 tie tie
PA 47 41 6 1 20
VA 46 43 6 0 13
WI 47 39 1 3 10
 Total EV          43 122 
Average 44.8 42.3 5.8 1.5
Wtd Avg 45.4 42.9 5.4 1.3
 Gallup Party_ID       Trump Clinton
 True Vote Clinton Trump Johnson Stein EVote EVote
AZ 29.6% 38.0% 14.4% 18.1% 11
CO 30.7% 37.0% 14.3% 18.1% 9
FL 34.2% 36.2% 13.2% 16.3% 29
GA 33.4% 39.4% 12.6% 14.6% 16
IA 30.9% 36.6% 14.3% 18.2% 6
ME 31.9% 34.5% 14.5% 19.1% 4
MI 36.4% 36.0% 12.4% 15.1% 16
MN 36.2% 36.8% 12.3% 14.7% 10
MO 33.2% 39.8% 12.6% 14.4% 10
NC 36.1% 33.9% 13.1% 16.9% 15
NV 34.7% 35.9% 13.1% 16.3% 6
OH 34.4% 38.6% 12.5% 14.5% 18
PA 39.1% 34.9% 11.8% 14.3% 20
VA 34.0% 38.8% 12.6% 14.7% 13
WI 35.5% 37.8% 12.3% 14.4% 10
Total EV  142  51
Average 34.0% 36.9% 13.1% 16.0%
Wtd Avg 34.5% 36.9% 12.9% 15.7%
 
9 Comments

Posted by on October 19, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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9 responses to “Pre-election Presidential polls: preparing for a stolen election

  1. Anthony Dee Varrone

    October 19, 2016 at 12:25 pm

    In your averages for Jill Stein: Have you made any allowance for the three states in which she will not be on the ballot (excluding states that have a write-in option?)

     
  2. John Castelloe

    October 20, 2016 at 10:33 am

    Richard, what is your basis for “assuming that 50% of Independents support Johnson and Stein”? The same Fox poll you integrate into your calculations disagrees with that pretty dramatically, crediting them with only 17% of support from independents (with 18% “na”, allowing for a best-case scenario of 35%). What I would most like to know is why Fox’s 19% sampling of Independents is so far off from Gallup’s 40%. Do they define “Independent” differently? Is Fox under-sampling them? That alone would be a compelling piece of evidence to support poll manipulation, and we don’t need to go as far as claiming that Trump is actually winning or Jill Stein has surpassed the 15% debate threshold to make a bold claim against the story that mainstream media is telling us.

     
    • Richard Charnin

      October 21, 2016 at 3:37 am

      The fact that they are Independents. The fact that 70% of Independents voted for Bernie in the primaries.
      The fact that the polls are rigged to favor Clinton by low-balling Jill Stein’s support.
      The fact that Fox’s 19% sampling of Independents is far off the Gallup 40% Independent party affiliation survey.
      The fact that I have been analyzing election fraud for 15 years.
      The fact that I exactly forecast Kerry’s UNADJUSTED 2004 exit poll share after adjusting the pre-election polls for the 6% undecided voters.
      The fact that I exactly forecast Obama’s 53% recorded share and 365 EV in 2008 and 332 EV in 2012.
      The fact that I forecast his 58% True vote (420 EV) in 2008 which exactly matched the WEIGHTED AGGREGATE OF THE UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS.
      And Obama had 61% in the UNADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (17836 respondents)
      The fact that FINAL pre-election and FINAL exit polls ALWAYS MAGICALLY match the BOGUS RECORDED VOTE.

      etc. etc. etc.

       
  3. asher27

    October 20, 2016 at 3:02 pm

    “Wikileaks documents provide confirmation that the primaries were rigged against Sanders while Donald Trump easily won the Republican primaries.”

    can you tell us the email ID for those documents (or link to it) so we can see for ourselves? I’m very curious how strong this proof is. I’m dying for proof to smack in the face of every hillary supporter.

     
    • Richard Charnin

      October 21, 2016 at 3:24 am

      If you are still unaware of the Wikileaks documents which prove DNC bias against Sanders, I suggest you do you homework by using google.

       
  4. CarlAntoine

    October 21, 2016 at 2:18 am

    Reblogged this on CarlAntoine and commented:
    #BernieSanders #FeelTheBern #JillStein #JillNotHill {#Clinton #Trump} #MSMbias #WikiLeaks #PollFraud #ElectionFraud

     

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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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