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A Tale of Two Pre-election Polls

21 Oct

Richard Charnin
Oct. 21, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

This analysis illustrates how polling results (and electoral votes) are manipulated due to the over-weighting of Democrats and under-weighting of Independents. The misleading poll results are compared to the more accurate Gallup party voter affiliation weighting.

The Quinnipiac poll has Clinton leading Trump 47-40%.
Given the internal poll shares, the Party-ID split is
Ind 26%, Dem 40%, Rep 34%.
Using the Four-way Election Model, Clinton wins by 444-94 Electoral Votes.

Assuming the Gallup party affiliation survey
(Ind 40%, Dem 32%, Rep 28%):
Clinton wins by 45.4-40.5% with 354-184 EV.

The Rasmussen poll has Trump leading Clinton 43-41%.
Given the internal poll shares, the Party-ID split is
Ind 32%, Dem 40%, Rep 28%.
Using the Four-way Election Model, Trump wins by 327-211 Electoral Votes

Assuming the  Gallup party affiliation survey
(Ind 40%, Dem 32%, Rep 28%):
Trump wins in a landslide by 45.4-36.5% with 496-42 EV.

 

Quinnipiac Match poll
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 26% 38% 42% 8% 12%
Dem 40% 91% 4% 2% 3%
Rep 34% 4% 80% 10% 6%
Total 100% 47.64% 39.72% 6.28% 6.36%
Votes 129,106 61,506 51,281 8,108 8,211
Elect Vote 538 444 94 0 0
Quinnipiac Match Gallup
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 40% 38% 42% 8% 12%
Dem 32% 91% 4% 2% 3%
Rep 28% 4% 80% 10% 6%
Total 100% 45.44% 40.48% 6.64% 7.44%
Votes 129,106 58,666 52,262 8,573 9,605
Elect Vote 538 354 184 0 0
 
Rasmussen Match poll 41 43 5 3
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 32% 22% 47% 18% 13%
Dem 40% 77% 15% 3% 6%
Rep 28% 11% 78% 8% 3%
Total 100% 40.92% 42.88% 8.80% 7.40%
Votes 129,106 52,830 55,360 11,361 9,554
Elect Vote 538 211 327 0 0
Rasmussen Match Gallup
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 40% 22% 47% 18% 13%
Dem 32% 77% 15% 3% 6%
Rep 28% 11% 78% 8% 3%
Total 100% 36.52% 45.44% 10.08% 7.96%
Votes 129,106 47,149 58,666 13,014 10,277
Elect Vote 538 42 496 0 0

 

 

Polling Data

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1079567794

Four-way 2016 Election Model
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045

 
5 Comments

Posted by on October 21, 2016 in 2016 election

 

Tags: , , ,

5 responses to “A Tale of Two Pre-election Polls

  1. fixerguy

    October 21, 2016 at 11:40 am

    Need to note, cite & link real party affiliation percentages as a reference point to highlight the under/over sample lies used in the “polls” IE frm Pew or similar

    Might do the same for millenials over/under sampling by “polls” using “likely voters” lie

    Kris Rosvold Aka Fixerguy.net

     
    • Richard Charnin

      October 21, 2016 at 11:45 am

      I link to Gallup in the post. go to the bottom.

       
  2. Kevin Trye

    October 23, 2016 at 9:55 pm

    It is hard to know what most independents will do on election day. I think most will stay home. But, possible (and likely) election fraud aside, can we rely upon the polling values of the third parties in your analysis? I note that some CNN polls appear to not even poll those under 35 years, who I suspect are mostly independents. See pg 32. http://bit.ly/cnn-rigged-poll

     
  3. Kevin Trye

    October 23, 2016 at 10:25 pm

    I note in more recent (26 sept) CNN poll, they appear to only poll those 50+ years. The breakdown is also based upon 26R, 41D and 33I, which I assume will also bias the results. http://bit.ly/cnn-rigged-polls2
    I guess it would be too much to ask for a fair, unbiased poll to be taken.

     
  4. CarlAntoine

    October 26, 2016 at 2:01 pm

    Reblogged this on CarlAntoine and commented:
    #BernieSanders #FeelTheBern #JillStein #JillNotHill {#Clinton #Trump} #MSMbias #PollFraud #ElectionFraud

     

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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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