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Comparing Five pre-election polls: Why the Gallup voter affiliation survey is used in the 2016 Election Model

23 Oct

Richard Charnin
Oct. 23, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

The fact that Party-ID demographic in five current polls (see realclearpolitics.com) vary greatly  is a cause for concern. What is the correct mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents? Theoretically, the National polls should have nearly identical Party-ID weightings. But they don’t, so which ones are to believed?

This summary analysis compares the poll shares  to  those obtained using the Gallup party affiliation survey  weights (currently  40% Independents, 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans).

Clinton leads the average of five pre-election polls by 43.0-40.7%. Applying the 2016 Election Model, this translates to a 302-236 average Electoral Vote win.

Using the Gallup survey  weights for each poll (using the same poll shares), Trump leads by 41.8-39.3%. He wins the average Electoral Vote by 329-209.

In the five polls, the average Party-ID is 40.8 Dem- 33.6 Rep- 25.6 Ind.  Trump leads the Independents in each poll by an average of 40-28%.

IBD/TIPP is the only  poll in which Independents are the largest group (38%) and closely approximates the Gallup affiliation survey..

View the 2016 Election Model  (with links to the five polls and the Gallup survey)

 Poll share   Electoral Vote  
Poll Party-ID Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Ipsos 42.1 39.6 298 240
Rasmussen 40.9 42.9 211 327
IBD/TIPP 39.5 42.2 202 336
Quinnipiac 47.6 39.7 444 94
Fox News 45 39 354 184
Average 43.02 40.68 301.8 236.2
 Gallup affiliation:   Poll share   Electoral Vote
40Ind;32Dem;28Rep Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Ipsos 36.4 37.7 232 306
Rasmussen 36.8 47.4 81 457
IBD/TIPP 36.5 45.4 42 496
Quinnipiac 45.4 40.5 354 184
Fox News 41.3 37.9 335 203
Average 39.28 41.78 208.8 329.2

 

Party ID Mix Ind Dem Rep
Ipsos 13 46 41
Rasmussen 32 40 28
IBD/TIPP 38 35 27
Quinnipiac 26 40 34
Fox News 19 43 38
Average 25.6 40.8 33.6
 Independent shares    
Poll Clinton Trump
Ipsos 23 34
Rasmussen 22 47
IBD/TIPP 28 44
Quinnipiac 38 42
Fox News 30 35
Average 28.2 40.4

 

 

 

 

 
5 Comments

Posted by on October 23, 2016 in 2016 election

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

5 responses to “Comparing Five pre-election polls: Why the Gallup voter affiliation survey is used in the 2016 Election Model

  1. vermonster1

    October 23, 2016 at 5:42 pm

    Great work as always Richard. I wish I was smart enough to thoroughly understand it. So, who do you think “should” win according to the statistics (not counting the rigging)?

     
  2. dael4

    October 23, 2016 at 8:34 pm

    Allan polster @ FB

    Bit.do/jillpoll
    “Awesome, btw, folks need to understand the novelty of this method of polling.
    So, for one, this kind of polling is LESS self-selecting than phone-based polling
    As consent is not required from the vast majority of people tallied (which is part of the self-selecting premise)
    Another point is that there is inherent randomization in this process.
    Because we have random friends, and so do all of our friends
    And since this is a network-based search, we can reach out through “2 degrees of bacon” to a much more representative pool.
    ^These are important to note because folks can categorically disregard the tally as “non-scientific” without considering its’ merits.
    ^Also, here are some demographic stats on who is on Facebook
    Noting that 40 million more people use facebook than are registered to vote
    in the US
    http://www.ibtimes.com/facebook-gets-older-demographic-report-shows-3-million-teens-left-social-network-3-years-1543092
    How Many Teens Are Leaving Facebook?
    A new report from digital marketing agency iStrategyLabs shows exactly how many teens have abandoned Facebook.
    ibtimes.com

    ^There’s a table in that article with demographic info
    ^Which dispels the myth that just a bunch of millenials are being counted.
    3:15PM

    Adam

     
  3. JoAnna McKinney

    October 23, 2016 at 9:51 pm

    Richard, someone linked to you, and I’d like to ask you a question. I’m horrendously bad at math so I’m not understanding something. I’ve been told that pollsters oversample some subgroups to “balance” the poll, i.e. to reflect the reality of voters. How does oversampling some subgroups make a D+9, D+11, etc poll? According to Gallup, Dems are +3 over Rep so I understand if it’s Dem +3. However, I never see oversampling men or rural or non-degreed. It’s always the opposite. Can you please explain. I would really appreciate it!

     
    • Richard Charnin

      October 24, 2016 at 9:07 am

      Party-ID can be easily changed along with vote shares. Just look at the post.
      Gender split is fairly constant (more females). So they rig the voting percentages
      Location: they can rig rural vs. urban split well as the vote shares
      Non-degreed: they can rig the vote shares as well as the split.

       
      • andymilken

        October 26, 2016 at 12:05 pm

        Nice work, as usual, Mr. Charnin. P-hacking at its best.

         

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