Oct. 23, 2016
The fact that Party-ID demographic in five current polls (see realclearpolitics.com) vary greatly is a cause for concern. What is the correct mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents? Theoretically, the National polls should have nearly identical Party-ID weightings. But they don’t, so which ones are to believed?
Clinton leads the average of five pre-election polls by 43.0-40.7%. Applying the 2016 Election Model, this translates to a 302-236 average Electoral Vote win.
Using the Gallup survey weights for each poll (using the same poll shares), Trump leads by 41.8-39.3%. He wins the average Electoral Vote by 329-209.
In the five polls, the average Party-ID is 40.8 Dem- 33.6 Rep- 25.6 Ind. Trump leads the Independents in each poll by an average of 40-28%.
IBD/TIPP is the only poll in which Independents are the largest group (38%) and closely approximates the Gallup affiliation survey..
View the 2016 Election Model (with links to the five polls and the Gallup survey)
|Poll share||Electoral Vote|
|Gallup affiliation:||Poll share||Electoral Vote|
|Party ID Mix||Ind||Dem||Rep|