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2016 ELECTION MODEL -10/30 UPDATE – TRUMP SURGING

30 Oct

Richard Charnin
Oct. 30, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

The 2016 Election Model uses eight recent polls adjusted for party-ID weights and undecided voters.

Clinton leads the 8-poll average 45.4-42.5% with 309 EV. But when the over-weighted Democratic party-ID split is replaced by the Gallup party affiliation  survey and 75% of undecided voters are allocated to Trump, he leads by 48.2-44.1%  with a 336-202 EV lead..

The model indicates that Trump has a 92% popular vote win probability.

Note: Undecided voters typically break 75% for the challenger. Trump is the assumed challenger and HRC/Obama is the incumbent.

8-Poll…………………………….. Electoral Vote….. Trump Popular Vote
Average….. Clinton Trump….. Clinton.. Trump…Win Prob (3% MoE).
Poll………… 45.4%… 42.5%……. 309…… 229……..14%
Adjusted….. 42.8%… 44.2%…… 225……. 313……..70%
Undec……… 44.1%… 48.2%…….202…… 336……..92%

% Ind ……… 32.5%… 45.1%

Party ID.. Ind…. Dem…. Rep
Avg Poll.. 27.5% 39.0% 31.9%
Gallup…. 40.0% 32.0% 28.0% (adjusted)

ABC/Washington Post

 ABC/WP Party-ID Stein  Clinton  Trump  Johnson
Ind 29% 1% 38% 58% 3%
Dem 37% 1% 94% 5% 0%
Rep 29% 0% 4% 91% 2%
Total 95% 0.7% 47.0% 45.1% 1.5%
Poll 97% 2.0% 46.0% 45.0% 4.0%
Gallup Adj. 99.2% 0.7% 46.4% 50.3% 1.8%
Gallup Adj.  Party-ID Stein Clinton Trump Johnson
Ind 40% 1% 38% 58% 3%
Dem 32% 1% 94% 5% 0%
Rep 28% 0% 4% 91% 2%
Total 99.2% 0.7% 46.4% 50.3% 1.8%
Votes 128,021 930 59,905 64,914 2,272
EVote 538 0 187 351 0

Sensitivity Analysis: Adjusted Gallup-ID

Trump % Rep
Trump 87.0% 89.0% 91.0% 93.0% 95.0%
% Ind Trump
62% 50.8% 51.3% 51.9% 52.4% 53.0%
58% 49.2% 49.7% 50.3% 50.8% 51.4%
54% 47.6% 48.1% 48.7% 49.2% 49.8%
Clinton
62% 45.9% 45.4% 44.8% 44.2% 43.7%
58% 47.5% 47.0% 46.4% 45.8% 45.3%
54% 49.1% 48.6% 48.0% 47.4% 46.9%
Margin
62% 4.8% 6.0% 7.1% 8.2% 9.3%
58% 1.6% 2.8% 3.9% 5.0% 6.1%
54% -1.6% -0.4% 0.7% 1.8% 2.9%
Vote Margin (000)
62% 6,196 7,630 9,064 10,498 11,932
58% 2,100 3,533 4,967 6,401 7,835
54% -1,997 -563 871 2,304 3,738

 

 
5 Comments

Posted by on October 30, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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5 responses to “2016 ELECTION MODEL -10/30 UPDATE – TRUMP SURGING

  1. Culture Vulture

    October 30, 2016 at 4:59 pm

    How does this compare overall with how well Sanders was doing against Clinton during the so-called primaries?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      October 30, 2016 at 11:42 pm

      Trump’s adjusted poll average margin (4%) is a near match to Sanders’ True Vote margin.

       
      • Culture Vulture

        October 31, 2016 at 10:50 am

        In your opinion Richard, is it then it’s possible for the Clinton campaign team can apply the same techniques used to steal the the 2016 US Democratic Party Primaries from Sanders, only this time in the 2016 US Presidential election?

         
  2. CarlAntoine

    October 31, 2016 at 6:08 am

    Reblogged this on CarlAntoine and commented:
    #BernieSanders #FeelTheBern #JillStein #JillNotHill {#Clinton #Trump} #MSMbias #Polls Reality

     
  3. george

    October 31, 2016 at 5:03 pm

    Culture Vulture’s point about the rigged-for-Hillary tactics in the primary election being repeated in the general election spotlights our current problem with this major flaw in our democracy. Checks against election fraud are not in place now and will not be in place by 8 November. Thus, no matter what the adjusted poll average margin is or will be, Hillary Clinton likely will prevail, and voters will never know the actual True Vote statistics. If she loses, it may mean that the Republicans managed more effective ‘rigging’. Either way, with Richard Charnin and others continuously providing us essential facts, we are better able to take positive actions. Knowledge is power. Though we despair at what we face in this election — our choices not really being choices at all — millions of people are now working with projects that will ultimately bring us our democratic rights.

     

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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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