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Implausible: 2016 National Exit Poll; Unadjusted NC Exit Poll

13 Nov

Richard Charnin
Nov. 13, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

JILL STEIN HAD JUST 1%. WHERE DID HER VOTES GO?

CNN National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
Clinton wins 47.8-47.4% (implausible)
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
CNN National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I (weighted to Dems)
Gallup party affiliation: 32D-27R-40D (weighted to Independents)

NC Recorded Vote (plausible)
Trump wins: 50.5-46.7% 
Party ID: 36D- 31R- 33I (weighted to Dems)
Trump won Independents: 56.5-38.5% (plausible)

NC Unadjusted exit poll (implausible)
Clinton wins: 48.6-46.5% Same Vote shares as recorded but..
Party ID: 36D- 31R- 33I (weighted to Dems)
Independents split: 44-44% (implausible)

NC True Vote Model (plausible)
Trump wins 50.5-46.6%
Party ID: 32.9D -24.2R -42.9I (weighted to Independents)
Trump wins Independents: 58.5-36.5% (plausible)

National True Vote Model (plausible)
Gallup Party-ID: 32D- 27R- 40I (weighted to Independents)

Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA) (plausible)
Trump wins the popular vote: 44.4-42.9%
Trump wins the recorded electoral vote: 306-232

After Undecided Voter Allocation (plausible)
Trump wins 48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the True electoral Vote: 351-187

NC Unadjusted EP Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 36% 91% 8% 1% 0%
Rep 31% 4% 94% 2% 0%
Ind 33% 44% 44% 9% 3%
Calc 100% 48.5% 46.5% 4.0% 1.0%
Unadjusted 100% 48.6% 46.5% 4.0% 0.9%
Votes 4.630 2.250 2.153 0.185 0.042
Margin -0.097    
    Margin -2.1%
NC Reported 2016
NEP Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 36% 91% 8% 0% 0%
Rep 31% 4% 94% 1% 0%
Ind 33% 38.5% 56.0% 5.0% 0.5%
Calc 100% 46.7% 50.5% 2.0% 0.8%
Reported 100% 46.7% 50.5% 2.1% 0.7%
Votes 4.630 2.162 2.340 0.097 0.032
Margin 0.178    
    Margin 3.8%
NC True Vote Model Adjusted Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 32.9% 91% 8% 1% 0%
Rep 24.2% 4% 94% 2% 0%
Ind 42.9% 36.5% 58.5% 3.0% 2.0%
True Vote 100.0% 46.6% 50.5% 2.1% 0.9%
Votes (mil) 4.630 2.156 2.337 0.097 0.040
Margin 0.181    
    Margin 3.9%
CNN Party ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 37% 89% 9% 2%
Rep 33% 7% 90% 3%
Ind 30% 42% 48% 10%
Total 100.0% 47.8% 47.4% 4.7%
Gallup Party ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 89% 9% 2%
Rep 28% 7% 90% 3%
Ind 40% 42% 48% 10%
Total 100.0% 47.2% 47.3% 5.5%
Model Gallup Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 32.0% 89% 6% 2% 1%
Rep 28.0% 5% 89% 3% 1%
Ind 40.0% 32.6% 43.9% 8.0% 5.0%
Total 94.6% 42.9% 44.4% 4.7% 2.6%
Total-100% 100.0% 45.4% 46.9% 4.9% 2.7%
Electoral Vote   232 306  
2016-presidential-election-table_nov-10-2016
 
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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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