Implausible: the WI Unadjusted Exit Poll

16 Nov

Richard Charnin
Nov. 16, 2016

Updated: Oct.2, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

Trump won four key battleground states (FL, NC, PA, WI). Unadjusted exit polls indicate that Clinton won all four and had 302 EV. But statistical analysis indicates Trump very likely won the four states.

View the summary tables for 9 Battleground states below.

Clinton won the WI unadjusted exit poll  by 48.2-44.3%
Trump won the reported vote (party-ID) by 47.2-46.3%.
Trump won the reported vote (gender) by 48.4-46.6%.
The  CNN adjusted exit poll calculation did not exactly match the reported vote.

WI Reported Vote (CNN)
Trump wins: 47.8-47.0% (23,000 vote margin)
Calculated: Trump wins: 48.1-46.1%
Trump won Independents: 50-40%
Party ID: 35D- 34R- 30I

WI Unadjusted exit poll
Clinton wins: 48.2-44.3% (118,000 vote margin)
Clinton won Independents: 48-37%  (implausible)
Party ID: 35D- 34R- 30I

WI True Vote Model 
Trump wins 48.2-45.2% (45,000 vote margin)
Trump wins Independents: 46-43%
Party ID: 33.9D -32.6R -33.5I (derived from Gallup)

CNN National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
Clinton wins 47.8-47.4%
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I

True Vote Model
Gallup Party-ID:  32D- 28R- 40I (8% Party ID  advantage to Independents)
Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA)
Trump wins the popular vote: 44.4-42.9% (1.6 million vote margin)
Trump wins the recorded Electoral vote: 306-232

True Vote: After Undecided Voter Allocation
Trump wins  48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the  Electoral Vote: 351-187

Unadjusted Exit Polls:


Unadj EP   Reported   True Vote  
Vote Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 48.39% 45.80% 46.14% 49.65% 44.57% 48.45%
Diff   -2.59%   3.51%   3.88%
OH 47.0% 47.1% 43.5% 52.1% 43.9% 51.4%
NC * 48.6% 46.5% 46.7% 50.5% 45.9% 46.6%
NJ 59.8% 35.8% 55.0% 41.8% 44.6% 46.4%
PA * 50.5% 46.1% 47.7% 48.8% 47.8% 45.8%
MI 46.8% 46.8% 47.5% 47.7% 45.3% 47.8%
MO 42.8% 51.2% 38.0% 57.1% 41.5% 51.7%
IA 44.1% 48.0% 42.2% 51.8% 41.1% 50.6%
FL * 47.7% 46.4% 47.8% 49.1% 45.9% 47.7%
WI * 48.2% 44.3% 46.9% 47.9% 48.2% 45.2%
% of Ind  Unadj   Reported   True Vote  
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 47.33% 40.30% 39.17% 53.09% 36.11% 50.22%
Diff   -7.03%   13.92%   14.11%
OH 50.0% 34.0% 38.0% 52.0% 38.0% 52.0%
NC 44.0% 44.0% 38.5% 56.0% 35.0% 49.0%
NJ 67.0% 28.0% 51.0% 48.0% 36.0% 52.0%
PA 50.0% 43.0% 36.0% 56.0% 32.0% 53.0%
MI 32.0% 52.7% 35.0% 56.3% 45.0% 56.3%
MO 45.0% 40.0% 28.0% 62.0% 39.0% 45.0%
IA 42.0% 41.0% 35.0% 51.0% 35.0% 51.0%
FL 48.0% 43.0% 48.0% 50.5% 32.0% 53.0%
WI 48.0% 37.0% 43.0% 46.0% 43.0% 46.0%


Unadj EP Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other
Dem 35% 91% 7% 1% 1% 0%
Rep 35% 6% 90% 3% 0% 1%
Ind 30% 48% 37% 6% 2% 7%
Calc 100% 48.4% 45.1% 3.2% 1.0% 2%
Unadj 100% 48.2% 44.3% 2.0% 1.3% 4%
Votes (000) 3,014 1,453 1,335 60 39 127
Margin -118 -3.9%
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other
Dem 35% 91% 7% 1% 1% 0%
Rep 35% 6% 90% 3% 0% 1%
Ind 30% 43% 46% 6% 2% 3%
Calc 100% 46.9% 47.8% 3.2% 1.0% 1%
Reported 100% 46.9% 47.9% 2.2% 0.7% 2.3%
Votes (000) 3,014 1,380 1,404 106 31 93
Margin 24 0.93%
True Vote Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other
Dem 33.9% 91% 7% 1% 1% 0%
Rep 32.6% 6% 90% 3% 0% 1%
Ind 33.5% 43% 46% 6% 2% 2%
TVM bef UVA 95.2% 42.7% 45.7% 4.3% 2.3%
True Vote 100.0% 45.2% 48.2% 4.3% 2.3%
Votes (000) 3,014 1,361 1,452 131 70
Margin 90 3.0%



Posted by on November 16, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized


11 responses to “Implausible: the WI Unadjusted Exit Poll

  1. Catherine Musinsky

    November 17, 2016 at 2:35 pm

    Hi Richard, Jonathan Simon downloaded the exit polls from CNN before they adjusted them. See codered2014/blog/ for the results. Are you lobbying anyone for a recount? Thanks for your work. CM

    • Richard Charnin

      November 17, 2016 at 3:04 pm

      I am not lobbying. I am an analyst. I proved the unadjusted polls were likely rigged.

      This is What I Believe

      Hillary rigged the primaries: Bernie drew thousands; she drew hundreds. Hillary rigged the election: Trump drew thousands; she drew hundreds. No more status quo. People wanted change. They did not want WW III. She should have been indicted.

      The 2016 Election Model exactly forecast Trump’s 306 RECORDED EV. But millions of votes were stolen from him and Jill Stein. The True Vote Model forecast that he had 351 TRUE EV!

      Many analysts believe the unadjusted exit polls because they have always proved to be quite accurate. I proved systemic election fraud from 1988-2008 based on 274 state and 6 national unadjusted exit polls. I also proved that the 2016 primaries were fraudulent based on the unadjusted exit polls.

      So why the change now? Simple.

      The media (NEP) which funds pollsters were in the tank for Hillary. They had to show her winning the exit polls. In fact, I predicted that they would do so. The exit pollsters work for the MSM. The pollsters always force the unadjusted polls to match bogus recorded votes. So the ruse is nothing new. It just changed shape in 2016.

      Common sense tells us that Jill Stein did much better than 1% nationally. She probably had at least 5%. That’s 4 million more votes than she is given credit for. Where did they go?

      I am mathematically proving that the exit polls must be fraudulent because of persistent anomalies in the inflated HRC shares of Independents. Trump easily won the vast majority of Independents. Hillary’s share of Independents required to match the unadjusted exit polls are IMPLAUSIBLE.

      For details, read the eight IMPLAUSIBLE posts.

      This post displays the Independent vote discrepancies for 8 states.

      Go to row 150 in the spreadsheet for calculations:

      • catemuse

        November 17, 2016 at 3:07 pm

        I have come to the opposite conclusion. The exit polls weren’t rigged. The election returns were.

      • Richard Charnin

        November 17, 2016 at 3:33 pm

        They BOTH were rigged for Hillary. That’s my conclusion.

      • Cindy

        November 27, 2016 at 11:10 pm

        I highly suspect you are dead on right about this Richard… makes sense that they rigged the exit polls again, only in a different way…. they rigged many of the pre-election polls too… underpolling independents and younger voters. I am so hoping these recounts exposes this… but we need at least some of the CA counties too…. and I agree with you, some of the states that HRC barely won.

  2. Kevin Trye

    November 17, 2016 at 6:00 pm

    It makes sense some Stein votes were switched to Hillary where she can access to the machinery. She used this trick with Rocky, the third place-getter in the primaries. Fractional voting was another tool they used. But the republicans weren’t clean. Voter suppression tricks, closing voting stations and slashing millions of minorities from the rolls in up to 28 states, using crosscheck. Which election scam had the greatest overall effect is yet unclear. Both parties do it and both want these illegal activities hidden, meaning CNN/Fox/MSM will never talk of it. The charade must continue although the veil is being lifted.

    To me it’s karma. Hillary stole her primary and Trump (strangely) didn’t steal his. This means Trump was the only ‘legitimate’ candidate left, hence no matter how vile, he deserved the win. Pity poor Bernie.

    p.s. Let’s not forget Hillary was hemorrhaging support all year. The collapse of her millennial and independent vote for her was huge. In some states she managed a dismal 19% where Obama got 51% of them. It wasn’t helped by this interview in April where she mocked Bernie supporters, who she desparately needed months later. Not a winning election strategy.

  3. Boris Dirnbach

    November 17, 2016 at 10:10 pm

    I’m curious how the election could have been rigged for Hillary in the Republican-dominated states of WI, MI and FL? If the votes themselves were rigged, agents working for her election or the DNC would need access to (the computers that control) the machines. Could this happen in Republican states? And if the Hillary camp is rigging the election in her favor, why not actually win WI, she was only 27,000 votes short? Seems like a lot of trouble to go thru and still lose that state and an election.

    • Greg Espey

      November 25, 2016 at 4:14 pm

      Its simple in 2008 and 2102 there were democratic districts that gave 100 percent all votes to Barack Obama Ohio and Pennsylvania had these ultra high democratic turnout. The main computer only totals what is sent it. In florida the same county gore disputed in his election was caught filling out absentte ballots..The rebpublican observer was kicked out, just like Obama used the courts in his election to do the same. Some districts in Obamas elections had his pic up which is illegal.

  4. Dave Yost

    February 3, 2017 at 3:34 pm

    Ok, I’m getting on board a bit late this time around. I can understand your reasoning in coming to your conclusion but its based on the shift in what these tables list as the Independent voter category. In virtually every state, the Dem and Rep voter categories have the Unadjusted and Reported vote count matching. The Independent category is all over the place?

    Now, I can see asking a voter in an exit poll what their affiliation is. How do you get this information for the Recorded Vote? In WI, we do not declare party affiliation when we vote. I don’t know what other states do but I’ll find out. Do you just assume the recorded vote and final exit polls will match and use the final exit poll affiliation for the recorded vote case as well?

    I’m sticking my neck out late but why assume the Dems rigged this thing. Could Republican affiliated poll workers or machine programmers have intentionally rigged CA and NY against Trump? They knew he would lose there anyhow.

    I’m been following this blog for years now and know enough math and statistics to believe you. I’m just not yet convinced that Hillary would have gotten a huge majority of the Independent vote as you are? A large number of people who declare themselves independent do not normally vote and Trump brought out a lot of them.

    Overall, excellent work Richard.


    • Richard Charnin

      February 7, 2017 at 9:06 pm

      Dave, thanks.

      Trump had the vast majority of Independents based on the 9 final pre-election polls which were a close match to the recorded vote.

      The adjusted state exit polls which match the recorded vote give the vote shares for Independents.
      I believe they low-ball Trump’s share, but use them anyway to be conservative in calculating the True vote.
      I derive the 2016 state party-id based on the Gallup national voter affiliation poll.
      I assume the Dems rigged it all over based on the available evidence.


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