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ADJUSTED POLLS: VOTERS DECIDING BEFORE AND AFTER OCT.1

08 Jan

Richard Charnin
Updated: June 27, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The National Exit Poll is ALWAYS adjusted to match the recorded vote. Clinton led the adjusted National Exit Poll by 48.3-46.2%.
The 2016 NEP indicates that 26% of voters decided who to vote for after Oct. 1. Of these late deciders, 48% said they voted for Trump and 40% for Clinton.
Clinton won voters who decided prior to Oct.1 by  51-45%. If  Trump actually won these voters by 47-46%, then he won the True Vote by 47.3-44.4%.
The 2016 NEP indicates that 40% of voters decided who to vote for after Sept. 1. Of these late deciders, 48% said they voted for Trump and 42% for Clinton.

Since  exit polls are always adjusted to match the fraudulent recorded vote, assuming the shares of voters who decided after Oct.1 are essentially correct, then the shares of those who decided prior to Oct.1 must have been inflated for Clinton. 

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED PRE OCT. 1 TO MATCH RECORDED VOTE

Decided  Voted Clinton Trump Other Margin
Post Oct 1 26.0% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0% 8.0%
Pre-Oct 1 74.0% 51.0% 45.0% 4.0% -6.0%
Match RV 100.0% 48.1% 45.8% 6.1% -2.4%
Reported 100.0% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5% -2.0%

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED PRE OCT.1 TO MATCH TRUE VOTE

Decided  Voted Clinton Trump Other Margin
Post Oct 1 26.0% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0% 8.0%
Pre-Oct 1 74.0% 46.0% 47.0% 7.0% 1.0%
Match TV 100.0% 44.4% 47.3% 8.3% 2.8%
Reported 100.0% 48.2% 46.2% 5.6% -2.0%

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED PRE SEPT.1 TO MATCH RECORDED VOTE

Decided Voted Clinton Trump Other Margin
Post Sep 1 40% 42.0% 48.0% 10.0% 6.0%
Pre Sep 1 60% 52.5% 45.0% 2.5% -7.5%
Match  100.0% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5% -2.1%
Recorded 48.3% 46.2% 5.5% -2.1%

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED PRE SEPT.1 TO MATCH TRUE VOTE

Decided Voted Clinton Trump Other Margin
Post Sep 1 40% 42.0% 48.0% 10.0% 6.0%
Pre Sep 1 60% 47.0% 48.0% 5.0% 1.0%
Match True 100.0% 45.0% 48.0% 7.0% 3.0%
TRUE   45.0% 48.0% 7.0% 3.0%

According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton led the RCP average of pre-election polls after Oct. 1 by 45.4-40.7%. The National Exit Poll indicates that Trump led voters who decided after Oct.1 by 48-40%, a 12.7% margin difference between RCP and the NEP

Clinton led the RCP average of pre-election polls before Oct. 1 by 42.4-39.2%. The NEP indicates Clinton won voters who decided before Oct.1 by 51-45%, a 2.8% difference in margin between the RCP and NEP. How does one explain the large difference in margin between post-Oct.1 pre-election and exit polls compared to the pre-Oct. polls?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036252757

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/pubchart?oid=729649900&format=image

Note the change in Trump’s margin after Oct. 1  in IL (57%), NY (51%),  CA (29%), OR (32%), WI (31%), MN (28%), NC (28%).

When Decided 

Post Oct.1   Pre- Oct.1   Chg
    HRC DJT Marg HRC DJT Marg Marg
    38.1% 50.5% 12.4% 49.4% 37.0% -12.4% 24.7%
    40.6% 49.5% 8.9% 52.3% 44.1% -8.2% 17.1%
Post Oct.1
IL 30% 32% 55% 23% 66% 32% -34% 57%
NY 26% 38% 53% 15% 67% 31% -36% 51%
OR 20% 32% 48% 16% 54% 38% -16% 32%
WI 14% 30% 59% 29% 49% 47% -2% 31%
CA 29% 51% 42% -9% 67% 29% -38% 29%
MN 29% 33% 51% 18% 51% 41% -10% 28%
NC 25% 33% 57% 24% 51% 47% -4% 28%
ME 31% 35% 51% 16% 51% 43% -8% 24%
CO 22% 37% 48% 11% 52% 42% -10% 21%
IA 26% 35% 53% 18% 47% 47% 0% 18%
MI 26% 37% 52% 15% 50% 47% -3% 18%
NM 28% 37% 41% 4% 52% 40% -12% 16%
NH 29% 42% 50% 8% 51% 45% -6% 14%
OH 25% 37% 54% 17% 47% 50% 3% 14%
VA 23% 42% 48% 6% 52% 44% -8% 14%
WA 22% 46% 41% -5% 57% 38% -19% 14%
AZ 25% 40% 48% 8% 48% 48% 0% 8%
FL 26% 43% 50% 7% 49% 49% 0% 7%
UT 44% 17% 39% 22% 36% 52% 16% 6%
NJ 25% 50% 41% -9% 55% 43% -12% 3%
PA 24% 43% 49% 6% 47% 51% 4% 2%
GA 20% 47% 55% 8% 45% 53% 8% 0%
NV 11% 45% 40% -5% 49% 44% -5% 0%
KY 28% 27% 63% 36% 31% 67% 36% 0%
SC 26% 39% 50% 11% 42% 56% 14% -3%
MO 29% 36% 52% 16% 38% 59% 21% -5%
TX 24% 46% 47% 1% 44% 51% 7% -6%
IN 29% 34% 53% 19% 35% 61% 26% -7%
When decided
NATIONAL Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 26.0% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0% 8.0%
before 74.0% 51.0% 45.0% 4.0% -6.0%
calc 100.0% 48.1% 45.8% 6.1% -2.4%
Reported 100.0% 48.2% 46.2% 5.6% -2.0%
WA Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 22.0% 46.0% 41.0% 13.0% -5.0%
before 78.0% 57.0% 38.0% 5.0% -19.0%
calc 100.0% 54.6% 38.7% 6.8% -15.9%
Reported 100.0% 54.7% 38.4% 6.9% -16.4%
IL Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 31.0% 33.0% 55.0% 12.0% 22.0%
before 69.0% 66.0% 32.0% 2.0% -34.0%
calc 100.0% 55.8% 39.1% 5.1% -16.6%
Reported 100.0% 55.8% 38.8% 5.4% -17.1%
CA Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 29.0% 51.0% 42.0% 7.0% -9.0%
before 71.0% 67.0% 29.0% 4.0% -38.0%
calc 100.0% 62.4% 32.8% 4.9% -29.6%
Reported 100.0% 61.7% 31.6% 6.7% -30.1%
NY Clinton Trump Other/Undec Margin
month 26.0% 38.4% 53.0% 8.6% 14.6%
before 74.0% 67.0% 31.0% 2.0% -36.0%
calc 100.0% 59.6% 36.7% 3.7% -22.9%
Reported 100.0% 59.6% 36.7% 3.7% -22.8%
OR Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 20.0% 32.0% 48.0% 20.0% 16.0%
before 80.0% 54.0% 38.0% 8.0% -16.0%
calc 100.0% 49.6% 40.0% 10.4% -9.6%
Reported 100.0% 50.1% 39.1% 10.8% -11.0%
OH Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 25.0% 37.0% 54.0% 9.0% 17.0%
before 75.0% 47.0% 50.0% 3.0% 3.0%
calc 100.0% 44.5% 51.0% 4.5% 6.5%
Reported 100.0% 43.6% 51.7% 4.8% 8.1%
NC Clinton Trump Other/Undec Margin
month 25.0% 33.0% 57.0% 10.0% 24.0%
before 75.0% 51.0% 47.0% 2.0% -4.0%
calc 100.0% 46.5% 49.5% 4.0% 3.0%
Reported 100.0% 46.2% 49.8% 4.0% 3.7%
NJ Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 25.0% 50.0% 41.0% 9.0% -9.0%
before 75.0% 55.0% 43.0% 2.0% -12.0%
calc 100.0% 53.8% 42.5% 3.7% -11.3%
Reported 100.0% 55.0% 41.0% 4.0% -14.0%
PA Clinton Trump Other/Undec Margin
month 24.0% 43.0% 49.0% 8.0% 6.0%
before 76.0% 47.0% 51.0% 2.0% 4.0%
calc 100.0% 46.0% 50.5% 3.4% 4.5%
Reported 100.0% 47.9% 48.6% 3.6% 0.7%
MI Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 26.0% 37.0% 52.0% 11.0% 15.0%
before 74.0% 50.0% 47.0% 3.0% -3.0%
calc 100.0% 46.6% 48.3% 5.1% 1.7%
Reported 100.0% 47.3% 47.5% 5.2% 0.2%
MO Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 29.0% 36.0% 52.0% 12.0% 16.0%
before 71.0% 38.0% 59.0% 3.0% 21.0%
calc 100.0% 37.4% 57.0% 5.6% 19.6%
Reported 100.0% 38.1% 56.8% 5.1% 18.6%
IA Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 26.0% 35.0% 53.0% 12.0% 18.0%
before 74.0% 47.0% 47.0% 6.0% 0.0%
calc 100.0% 43.9% 48.6% 7.6% 4.7%
Reported 100.0% 41.7% 51.1% 7.1% 9.4%
FL Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 26.0% 43.0% 50.0% 7.0% 7.0%
before 74.0% 49.0% 49.0% 2.0% 0.0%
calc 100.0% 47.4% 49.3% 3.3% 1.8%
Reported 100.0% 47.8% 49.0% 3.2% 1.2%
WI Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 14.0% 30.0% 59.0% 11.0% 29.0%
before 86.0% 49.0% 47.0% 4.0% -2.0%
calc 100.0% 46.3% 48.7% 5.0% 2.3%
Reported 100.0% 46.5% 47.2% 6.3% 0.8%
VA Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 23.0% 42.0% 48.0% 10.0% 6.0%
before 77.0% 52.0% 44.0% 4.0% -8.0%
calc 100.0% 49.7% 44.9% 5.4% -4.8%
Reported 100.0% 49.8% 44.4% 5.8% -5.3%
NV Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 11.0% 45.0% 40.0% 15.0% -5.0%
before 89.0% 49.0% 44.0% 7.0% -5.0%
calc 100.0% 48.6% 43.6% 7.9% -5.0%
Reported 100.0% 47.9% 45.5% 6.6% -2.4%
NH Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 29.0% 42.0% 50.0% 8.0% 8.0%
before 71.0% 51.0% 45.0% 4.0% -6.0%
calc 100.0% 48.4% 46.5% 5.2% -1.9%
Reported 100.0% 47.0% 46.6% 6.4% -0.4%
MN Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 29.0% 33.0% 51.0% 16.0% 18.0%
before 71.0% 51.0% 41.0% 8.0% -10.0%
calc 100.0% 45.8% 43.9% 10.3% -1.9%
Reported 100.0% 46.4% 44.9% 8.6% -1.5%
ME Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 31.0% 35.0% 51.0% 14.0% 16.0%
before 69.0% 51.0% 43.0% 6.0% -8.0%
calc 100.0% 46.0% 45.5% 8.5% -0.6%
Reported 100.0% 47.8% 44.9% 7.3% -3.0%
CO Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 22.0% 37.0% 48.0% 15.0% 11.0%
before 78.0% 52.0% 42.0% 6.0% -10.0%
calc 100.0% 48.7% 43.3% 8.0% -5.4%
Reported 100.0% 48.2% 43.3% 8.6% -4.9%
TX Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 24.0% 46.0% 47.0% 7.0% 1.0%
before 76.0% 44.0% 51.0% 5.0% 7.0%
calc 100.0% 44.5% 50.0% 5.5% 5.6%
Reported 100.0% 43.2% 52.2% 4.5% 9.0%
GA Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 20.0% 47.0% 55.0% -2.0% 8.0%
before 80.0% 45.0% 53.0% 2.0% 8.0%
calc 100.0% 45.4% 53.4% 1.2% 8.0%
Reported 100.0% 45.6% 50.8% 3.6% 5.1%
UT Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 44.0% 17.0% 39.0% 44.0% 22.0%
before 56.0% 36.0% 52.0% 12.0% 16.0%
calc 100.0% 27.6% 46.3% 26.1% 18.6%
Reported 100.0% 27.5% 45.5% 27.0% 18.1%
SC Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 26.0% 39.0% 50.0% 11.0% 11.0%
before 74.0% 42.0% 56.0% 2.0% 14.0%
calc 100.0% 41.2% 54.4% 4.3% 13.2%
Reported 100.0% 40.7% 54.9% 4.4% 14.3%
KY Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 28.0% 27.0% 63.0% 10.0% 36.0%
before 72.0% 31.0% 67.0% 2.0% 36.0%
calc 100.0% 29.9% 65.9% 4.2% 36.0%
Reported 100.0% 32.7% 62.5% 4.8% 29.8%
NM Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 28.0% 37.0% 41.0% 22.0% 4.0%
before 72.0% 52.0% 40.0% 8.0% -12.0%
calc 100.0% 47.8% 40.3% 11.9% -7.5%
Reported 100.0% 48.3% 40.0% 11.7% -8.2%
IN Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 29.0% 34.0% 53.0% 13.0% 19.0%
before 71.0% 35.0% 61.0% 4.0% 26.0%
calc 100.0% 34.7% 58.7% 6.6% 24.0%
Reported 100.0% 37.9% 56.8% 5.3% 18.9%
AZ Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 25.0% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0% 8.0%
before 75.0% 48.0% 48.0% 4.0% 0.0%
calc 100.0% 46.0% 48.0% 6.0% 2.0%
Reported 100.0% 45.1% 48.7% 6.2% 3.5%
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Posted by on January 8, 2017 in Uncategorized

 

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