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Sensitivity Analysis: Ohio Unadjusted Exit Poll Anomalies

11 Jan

Richard Charnin
Jan. 11, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Sensitivity Analysis shows that the Ohio unadjusted exit poll which indicated a virtual 47% tie was implausible. Clinton had to win a solid majority of Independents given her recorded shares of Democrats and Republicans.

Trump won Ohio by 51.7-43.6%. But the unadjusted poll indicates that he won by just 47.1-47.0%. Assuming the unadjusted poll is accurate, the 8% discrepancy indicates a virtual 100% probability of election fraud favoring Trump. But let’s take a closer look.

The final Ohio exit poll (which is always matched to the recorded vote) indicated that Trump won Independents by 51-38%. To match the unadjusted poll, Clinton needed to win Independents by 50-35%, an extremely implausible discrepancy.

Trump led Independents in nine national pre-election polls by 43.6-33.8%. He also led Independents in the National Exit Poll by 46-42%.

A sensitivity analysis of Trump’s and Clinton’s Ohio vote share revealed that Trump had nearly 50% using conservative assumptions below the base case recorded vote.

The Ohio final exit poll indicated that Trump won 89% of Republicans, 12% of Democrats and 51% of Independents which resulted in his 51.7-43.6% win.

I calculated Trump’s total vote share for three cases assuming he had 7-12% of Democratic shares and 87-89% of Republican shares.

The exit poll party-ID is used in cases 1-2. The Gallup-adjusted Party ID was used in case 3.

1.Unadjusted Exit poll (Clinton won Independents by 50-35%)
2.Recorded Vote (assume Trump won Independents by 51-38%)
3.True Vote (assume Trump won Independents by 51-38%)

In cases 4-6, Trump’s total share was calculated over a range of his shares of Independents and Republicans.

A sensitivity analysis of the Ohio RACE exit poll demographic confirmed that Trump had at least 50%.

Conclusion: It is a mistake to ASSUME that the unadjusted 2016 exit polls were accurate, even though I proved that they were close to the True Vote in 1988-2008. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1904912692

Reported Vote
OHIO Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 34% 87% 12% 0% 1%
Rep 37% 8% 89% 2% 1%
Ind 29% 38% 51% 8% 3%
Calc 100% 43.6% 51.8% 3.1% 1.6%
Reported 100% 43.6% 51.7% 3.2% 1.6%
Votes 5,496 2,394 2,841 174 46
    Margin 447 8.1%
     
    Trump % Dem    
  % Rep 7% 9% 12%
89% 50.1% 50.8% 51.8%
88% 49.7% 50.4% 51.4%
87% 49.4% 50.0% 51.1%
Trump % Ind
% Rep 35% 45% 51%
89% 47.2% 50.1% 51.8%
88% 46.8% 49.7% 51.4%
87% 46.4% 49.3% 51.1%
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Posted by on January 11, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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