Jan. 11, 2017
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO POSTS
Sensitivity Analysis shows that the Ohio unadjusted exit poll which indicated a virtual 47% tie was implausible. Clinton had to win a solid majority of Independents given her recorded shares of Democrats and Republicans.
Trump won Ohio by 51.7-43.6%. But the unadjusted poll indicates that he won by just 47.1-47.0%. Assuming the unadjusted poll is accurate, the 8% discrepancy indicates a virtual 100% probability of election fraud favoring Trump. But let’s take a closer look.
The final Ohio exit poll (which is always matched to the recorded vote) indicated that Trump won Independents by 51-38%. To match the unadjusted poll, Clinton needed to win Independents by 50-35%, an extremely implausible discrepancy.
Trump led Independents in nine national pre-election polls by 43.6-33.8%. He also led Independents in the National Exit Poll by 46-42%.
A sensitivity analysis of Trump’s and Clinton’s Ohio vote share revealed that Trump had nearly 50% using conservative assumptions below the base case recorded vote.
The Ohio final exit poll indicated that Trump won 89% of Republicans, 12% of Democrats and 51% of Independents which resulted in his 51.7-43.6% win.
I calculated Trump’s total vote share for three cases assuming he had 7-12% of Democratic shares and 87-89% of Republican shares.
The exit poll party-ID is used in cases 1-2. The Gallup-adjusted Party ID was used in case 3.
1.Unadjusted Exit poll (Clinton won Independents by 50-35%)
2.Recorded Vote (assume Trump won Independents by 51-38%)
3.True Vote (assume Trump won Independents by 51-38%)
In cases 4-6, Trump’s total share was calculated over a range of his shares of Independents and Republicans.
A sensitivity analysis of the Ohio RACE exit poll demographic confirmed that Trump had at least 50%.
Conclusion: It is a mistake to ASSUME that the unadjusted 2016 exit polls were accurate, even though I proved that they were close to the True Vote in 1988-2008. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/
|Trump % Dem|
|Trump % Ind|