Seth Rich/DNC Mortality Probability

20 May

Richard Charnin
Updated: 1/10/18

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

It’s not just about Seth Rich. Applied Mathematics indicates a virtual 100% probability of a cover-up.

What is the probability that in a random group of N individuals, at least n would die unnaturally in T years, given the group weighted average mortality rate R? 

The expected number of unnatural deaths is E = N*R*T.  The probability of at least  n unnatural deaths is a function of  E and n: the larger the difference between E and n, the lower the probability.

The  Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events. The probability of at least n homicides if E are expected is P = 1- poisson (n-1, E, true).

You can run the spreadsheet calculator for any combination of N, n, R and T.

Assume N = 10,000 DNC/Wikileaks related individuals:
– 8 suspicious deaths (5 homicides) in 3 months from April 2016.
Probability of 5 homicides: 1 in 6.5 million.

– 17 suspicious deaths (13 homicides) in 20 months since April 2016.
Probability of 13 homicides: 1 in 384 billion.

Assuming  9 homicides,  1 accident and  3 suicides, we use the 0.00009 weighted average mortality rate. The probability is 1 in 267 million.

4/18: John Jones, lawyer who defended Assange, run over by train.
May : Michael Ratner (Wikileaks NY lawyer), cancer.
6/22: John Ashe, UN official, found with barbell on neck.
6/23: Mike Flynn,48, died day he reported on Clinton Foundation (unknown).
7/10: Seth Rich, DNC staffer, shot twice in back.
7/25: Joe Montano,47, DNC, heart attack day before the DNC convention.
8/01: Victor Thorn, gunshot wound, author of books on Clintons.
8/02: Shawn Lucas, DNC process server, lethal combination of drugs.
Oct : Gavin McFayden (Wikileaks founder), cancer.
Nov : Monica Petersen, investigator of Clinton Foundation, child trafficking, found dead in Haiti.
May : Peter Smith, GOP operative, found dead from asphyxiation in a Minnesota hotel room just days after talking to the Wall Street Journal about his efforts to obtain Hillary’s Clinton’s missing emails.
May : Beranton Whisenant, prosecutor investigating DNC, found dead on Hollywood, FL beach.

July: Klaus Eberwein, former Haiti Government official found dead in a motel room with a gunshot wound to the head. Was to testify on Clinton Foundation connection to Haitian earthquake charity.
July 20: Joseph Rago, 34, WSJ reporter, asked Russians for info on Clinton,  Obama critic, found dead.

Aug: Kurt Smolek, possible ties to PizzaGate and child trafficking ring in Cambodia, found dead in Potomac River. Up until 2015, he worked for the State Dept in Cambodia as an OSAC Diplomatic Security Agent.

Nov: Steve Mostyn, 46, Texas-based trial lawyer,  member of George Soros-founded Democracy Alliance, major Democratic Party benefactor, died suddenly. Called suicide.

Dec: Dr. Dean Lorich, surgeon, exposed Clinton Foundation corruption in Haiti, stabbed in chest. Called suicide.

Jan. 2018: James Dolan, 36, Wikileaks developer. Suicide

How many DNC voter data admins were there? How many DNC process servers? How many HRC biographers? How many Assange lawyers? How many Wikileaks founders? How many UN officials preparing to testify? How many DNC officials? How many investigative reporters on the Clintons? Are any of these deaths being investigated? Any suspects?

Probability of at least n homicides (Rate =0.00005) among a group of N individuals in a period of 80 weeks:

P  = 1- poisson (n,N*R*80/52,true)

n N=10,000 20,000 50,000 70,000 80,000 100,000
10 0.00% 0.00% 0.63% 4.80% 9.49% 24.60%
11 0.00% 0.00% 0.21% 2.21% 4.93% 15.48%
12 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.94% 2.38% 9.10%
13 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.37% 1.07% 5.01%
14 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.14% 0.45% 2.59%
  Probability  1 in      
13 384 billion 95 million 5,291 267 93 20


In 1964-78, there were an estimated 1500 JFK-related material witnesses, of whom 122 died suspiciously. Seventy-eight(78) of the 122 were officially ruled unnatural. Of the 78, 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths:P= 2.7E-31 (1 in a million trillion trillion).

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were likely homicides.

Of the remaining 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides based on the total number of expected deaths. Therefore, there were 85-90 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. For 10,000 witnesses, Probability P= 5.5E-47


Simkin JFK Index of 656 key individuals: 70 suspicious deaths
44 ruled unnatural (22 homicides, 11 accidents 11 suicides): P= 4.4E-41
Assuming 44 were homicides: P= 3.8E-66


Posted by on May 20, 2017 in 2016 election, JFK, Uncategorized


Tags: , , , , , , , ,

27 responses to “Seth Rich/DNC Mortality Probability

  1. rockrooky

    May 20, 2017 at 4:37 pm

    Can you apply this to the deaths related the 2016 primary? Appreciate your work. Mickey

    From: Richard Charnin’s Blog To: Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2017 9:04 AM Subject: [New post] Quick Mortality Probability Calculator #yiv7034917028 a:hover {color:red;}#yiv7034917028 a {text-decoration:none;color:#0088cc;}#yiv7034917028 a.yiv7034917028primaryactionlink:link, #yiv7034917028 a.yiv7034917028primaryactionlink:visited {background-color:#2585B2;color:#fff;}#yiv7034917028 a.yiv7034917028primaryactionlink:hover, #yiv7034917028 a.yiv7034917028primaryactionlink:active {background-color:#11729E;color:#fff;}#yiv7034917028 | Richard Charnin posted: “Quick Mortality Probability CalculatorRichard CharninMay 20, 2017What is the probability that in a random group of N individuals, n would die unnaturally (homicide, suicide, accident) or strictly by homicide over T years? You can run the calculato” | |

    • Richard Charnin

      May 22, 2017 at 8:45 am

      You can enter your own inputs to the spreadsheet, as I stated in the post.
      The parameters: n,R,T,N

      • Fletcher Jamieson

        June 9, 2017 at 11:28 am

        Do you think you could do an analysis of the death of Chris Cornell? A lot of people think he was murdered. Would love to see what you find.

      • Richard Charnin

        June 12, 2017 at 5:35 pm


  2. Carol Bronder

    June 2, 2017 at 10:31 pm

    Richard, Someone just sent this to CrowdsourceTheTruth. Have you watched their videos/livestreams? They have some files from the DNC NGP-VAN and are asking people to download and analyze.

  3. Richard Charnin

    June 4, 2017 at 8:07 am

    I gave them links to some of my blog posts in comments to their videos. I am not going to download the DNC files.


    July 9, 2017 at 11:27 am

    Thank you for your service, Mr. Charnin

  5. ArtSci

    July 9, 2017 at 11:41 am

    Reblogged this on

  6. Joanne Farrell

    July 16, 2017 at 12:54 pm

    I frickin LOVE Statistics 💜

  7. Dori Schwartz

    September 3, 2017 at 8:21 pm

    I take issue with the data used to base these calculations on. First, Shawn Lucas, was just a process server. He wasn’t a party to the case, he wasn’t a lawyer on the case. A process server is like a mailman delivering a registered letter, except it’s the notification that legal proceedings have been started against you. He had nothing to do with the DNC and his death changes nothing in regards to the case against the DNC. Second, John Ashe, although his death sounds suspicious, according to the district attorney’s office for the case, he was not set to testify against the Clinton’s at any point in the trial, where he was a defendant for conspiracy to bribe a UN official, payment of bribes, money laundering, and tax fraud. You can look up the charging document on Snopes, it’s 30 pages long, and no mention of any Clintons. Then there’s Mike Flynn, who reportedly died of a heart attack. He was a writer for Breitbart, who often wrote about the Clintons, just like any number of writers working in conservative media. What exactly is suspicious about the death of a conservative writer coinciding with his publishing of a negative story about someone from an opposing party in the middle of election season? If he died late thursday evening we could guess that he was at home with his family, so even if it was murder, what would the method be to cause a delayed heart attack? If you actually go down the line and look at the supporting evidence used to debunk some of these stories, I think you’d end up with a much shorter list.


      September 3, 2017 at 8:59 pm

      You’re flat out wrong. Part of the DNC’s defense was a motion to dismiss based on how the case was served. He was a witness in the case.

    • Richard Charnin

      September 7, 2017 at 7:46 am

      Ashe was due in court Monday with his Chinese businessman co-defendant Ng Lap Seng, who is charged with smuggling $4.5 million into the US since 2013 and lying that it was to buy art and casino chips.

      Ng was identified in a 1998 Senate report as the source of hundreds of thousands of dollars illegally funneled through an Arkansas restaurant owner, Charlie Trie, to the Democratic National Committee during the Clinton administration. (Ng was not charged with any crime.)

      Ng and Trie had visited the White House several times for Democratic fundraising events and were photographed with then-President Bill Clinton and first lady Hillary Clinton.

      One source told me, “During the trial, the prosecutors would have linked Ashe to the Clinton bagman Ng. It would have been very embarrassing. His death was conveniently timed.”

    • Kim Holleman

      March 27, 2018 at 5:44 am

      He was a witness. He was in the lawsuit. Sorry you don’t realize that.

    • Carol Sweeney

      July 26, 2018 at 5:30 pm

      Dori, firstly do not use Snopes for anything, they are bought and paid for, same for most of those fact check companies. Also Annenberg Foundation connection to Bill Ayers and Barack O.

      • Dori

        August 1, 2018 at 12:23 am

        You should try reading what I wrote, over and over again. If you use critical thinking and check sources you don’t have to summarily dismiss or accept any one source. Snopes links to the charging documents I was referring to, and I was basing my statement about the case by what was written in the charging document.


    September 3, 2017 at 9:03 pm

    “Snopes” is a joke. The fact that “Facebook” told you Snopes was ok, should have been your ENORMOUS RED FLAG that it was not credible. The founder of Snopes was sued by his wife for his embezzlement from the company to pay for an escort he later married. Please do not come onto the blog of a mathematician and attempt to do any form of serious debunking using “Snopes”. Snopes is basically the fact checking version of The Enquirer.

    • Dori Schwartz

      September 4, 2017 at 8:32 am

      That’s the thing about facts, you don’t need to rely on the reputation of the person who asserts them, they speak for themselves. On the snopes page for that particular person, they link to the 30 page charging document, where all the parties involved are listed, and a detailed account of the case is put forward. There is no Clinton connection to that case, period.


        September 4, 2017 at 8:42 am

        Unless your entire refutation of something *rests* on the fact checking service’s integrity. You used zero information other than to quote Snopes, which is laughable and insulting on a mathematician’s blog. You’re embarrassing yourself.

    • Dori Schwartz

      September 4, 2017 at 7:44 pm

      These are the charging documents against John Ashe, where you won’t find any mention of Clinton anyone. Of course if you were interested in the truth you could have gone to the snopes page and clicked on the link to familiarize yourself with what the case was really about.


    September 4, 2017 at 8:45 am

    To the original point, “You’re flat out wrong. Part of the DNC’s defense was a motion to dismiss based on how the case was served. He was a witness in the case.” I have already proven you wrong about Sean Lucas and now you’re attempting to argue “Snopes” is reputable because you saw it on facebook. I’ll leave it at that.

  10. Dori Schwartz

    September 4, 2017 at 8:20 pm

    As for Shawn Lucas and the DNC’s motion to dismiss, his death changed absolutely nothing about the case. First of all, there were two employees present for the service plus a videographer. So they would have had to kill all three guys and erase the viral video from the internet. Second, the DNC filed their motion on the 22 of July, before Lucas death, not because he wasn’t around to testify. Third, the reason reason they filed the motion, and the reason they won, is that the process servers served the wrong person, and they didn’t serve Wasserman Shultz at all. And Finally, after the motion to dismiss was granted, you know what the terrible punishment was? They had to re-serve them with documents. To say that Lucas’ death was beneficial in any way to the DNC is beyond ridiculous.


      September 5, 2017 at 9:03 am

      You saying a bunch of stuff isn’t fact or truth, Doris. He was a witness in the case that was murdered. That is a fact. You cannot dispute that fact. Your opinion about if it does or does not change the case is irrelevant to the fact that he was a murdered witness. As for the judge dismissing the case, if you had bothered to read the order instead of just posting the link from Snooopies Facts ‘R Us, you’d read that the Judge agreed with the premise of fraud.

      • Dori Schwartz

        September 5, 2017 at 10:31 am

        The court documents and orders are posted online by the court. All you have to do is read them to see that what I said is exactly right. You clearly haven’t read the document I just posted, because you’re talking about a completely different order.

  11. Dori Schwartz

    September 4, 2017 at 8:21 pm

    Here’s the judge’s order on the motion to dismiss.


      September 5, 2017 at 12:07 pm

      What you are saying is irrelevant. We are talking about Sean Lucas and Seth Rich or have you forgotten what blog you’re on? You attempted to refute a mathematician’s premise by using Snopes.You’re embarrassing yourself.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

%d bloggers like this: