Seth Rich/JFK Mortality Probability Calculator

20 May

Richard Charnin
May 20, 2017 (updated 6/12/17)

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

It’s not just about Seth Rich. Applied Mathematics indicates a virtual 100% probability of a cover-up.

There were n=6 suspicious deaths in T=5 weeks (0.10 years). Mortality rate R=0.0002. Assuming a random group of N individuals, the probability that it was just a coincidence is
N Probability
500  1 in 900 trillion
1000 1 in 14 trillion
3000 1 in 20 billion
30000 1 in 32000

There were 7 suspicious deaths (assumed to be homicides) in 3 months. The probability is virtually ZERO it is a coincidence given so many suspicious deaths in such a short period of time. How many DNC voter data admins were there? How many DNC process servers? How many HRC biographers? How many Assange lawyers? How many Wikileaks founders? How many UN officials preparing to testify? How many DNC officials? How many investigative reporters on the Clintons? Are any of these deaths being investigated? Any suspects?

4/18: John Jones, lawyer who defended Assange, run over by train.
6/22: John Ashe, UN official, barbell fell on neck day before he was going to testify on DNC and Clinton.
6/23: Mike Flynn,48, died day he reported on Clinton Foundation (COD unknown).
7/10: Seth Rich, DNC staffer, shot twice in back. Assange offered $20K reward.
7/25: Joe Montano,47, DNC, heart attack, died day before convention.
8/01: Victor Thorn, author of books exposing Clintons, gunshot wound.
8/02: Shawn Lucas, DNC process server, lethal combination of drugs.

In addition, consider these 2 suspicious deaths (n=9)
Michael Ratner (Wikileaks NY lawyer) died in May 2016 from cancer.
Gavin McFayden (Wikileaks founder) died in Oct 2016 from cancer.

What is the probability that in a random group of N individuals, n would die unnaturally in T years given group mortality rate R? Three (R, n, T) of the 4 parameters are known constants. The only unknown is N, the number of individuals in the study.

There were 7 suspicious deaths in 3 months:
n = 7
R = 0.0002 (DC homicide rate; 135 homicides/681170 pop.)
T = 3 months (0.25 Year).
N = relevant DNC/Wikileaks population.
E = N*R*T =N*0.0002*0.25 (expected number of homicides).

The  Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events. The probability of n homicides when E are expected is P = poisson (n,E,false).

Assume N = 1,000, the probability n=
3 is P= 1 in 52 thousand
4 is P= 1 in 4.2 million
5 is P= 1 in 422 million
6 is P= 1 in 51 billion
7 is P= 1 in 7.2 trillion

Assume: n=7, T= 0.25 (3 months), R=0.0002 and
N= 500, P = 1 in 902.1 trillion
N= 1,000, P = 1 in 7.2 trillion
N= 3,000, P = 1 in 3.6 billion
N= 10,000, P = 1 in 1.1 million

Since N is unknown, let’s view a SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS table over a range of N for n=5,6,7,8,9:

Probability of n homicides in a random group of
n 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
5 0.02% 0.31% 1.41% 3.61%
6 0.00% 0.05% 0.35% 1.20%
7 0.00% 0.01% 0.08% 0.34%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.09%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02%

The analysis assumes the 7 deaths were all homicides. If they were a combination of 3 homicides, 2 accidents, 1 suicide and 1 heart attack, we use a weighted mortality rate. This is conservative as the “accidents” and “suicides” were likely homicides. The heart attack was also highly suspicious.

………………..National Weighted for T=.25 (3 months)
COD………. n Rate……… Rate
Accident.. 2 0.00038 0.00076
Suicide…. 1 0.00012 0.00012
Homicide. 3 0.00005 0.00015
Natural?.. 1 0.00173 0.00173 heart attack/cancer
Total…….7 0.00228 0.00039

For n=7, N= 1000, R = 0.00039, T = 0.25 (3 months)
Probability: P = 1 in 60 billion.

For n=5 homicides, N=1000, T= 0.27 (14 weeks), R = 0.00005
P = 1 in 275 billion

For n =7 (5 homicides, 2 heart attacks), N=1000, T= 0.25, R = 0.00052
P = 1 in 8 billion.

For n=9 (5 homicides, 2 heart attacks and 2 cancers):
R=0.0008, N=1000, T=0.5 (6 months)
P = 1 in 2.5 billion.

You can run the spreadsheet calculator for any combination of N, n, R and T.

Probability of 0-7 homicides in a random group of 40,000 over 3 months

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In 1964-78, there were an estimated 1500 JFK-related material witnesses, of whom 122 died suspiciously. Seventy-eight(78) of the 122 were officially ruled unnatural. Of the 78, 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths: 2.7E-31 (1 in a million trillion trillion).

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were likely homicides.

Of the remaining 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides based on the total number of expected deaths. Therefore, there were 85-90 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. For 10,000 witnesses, Probability: 5.5E-47


Simkin JFK Index of 656 key individuals: 44 homicides, Probability = 4.7 E-60


Posted by on May 20, 2017 in 2016 election, JFK, Uncategorized


Tags: , , , , , , , ,

6 responses to “Seth Rich/JFK Mortality Probability Calculator

  1. rockrooky

    May 20, 2017 at 4:37 pm

    Can you apply this to the deaths related the 2016 primary? Appreciate your work. Mickey

    From: Richard Charnin’s Blog To: Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2017 9:04 AM Subject: [New post] Quick Mortality Probability Calculator #yiv7034917028 a:hover {color:red;}#yiv7034917028 a {text-decoration:none;color:#0088cc;}#yiv7034917028 a.yiv7034917028primaryactionlink:link, #yiv7034917028 a.yiv7034917028primaryactionlink:visited {background-color:#2585B2;color:#fff;}#yiv7034917028 a.yiv7034917028primaryactionlink:hover, #yiv7034917028 a.yiv7034917028primaryactionlink:active {background-color:#11729E;color:#fff;}#yiv7034917028 | Richard Charnin posted: “Quick Mortality Probability CalculatorRichard CharninMay 20, 2017What is the probability that in a random group of N individuals, n would die unnaturally (homicide, suicide, accident) or strictly by homicide over T years? You can run the calculato” | |

    • Richard Charnin

      May 22, 2017 at 8:45 am

      You can enter your own inputs to the spreadsheet, as I stated in the post.
      The parameters: n,R,T,N

      • Fletcher Jamieson

        June 9, 2017 at 11:28 am

        Do you think you could do an analysis of the death of Chris Cornell? A lot of people think he was murdered. Would love to see what you find.

      • Richard Charnin

        June 12, 2017 at 5:35 pm


  2. Carol Bronder

    June 2, 2017 at 10:31 pm

    Richard, Someone just sent this to CrowdsourceTheTruth. Have you watched their videos/livestreams? They have some files from the DNC NGP-VAN and are asking people to download and analyze.

  3. Richard Charnin

    June 4, 2017 at 8:07 am

    I gave them links to some of my blog posts in comments to their videos. I am not going to download the DNC files.


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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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