Probability Analysis: DNC, Wikileaks, Clinton Foundation suspicious deaths

20 May

Richard Charnin
Updated: 11/9/19


There were at least 21 suspicious DNC/Wikileaks/Clinton Foundation related deaths in 28 months from April 2016 to Aug 2018.  Of the 21 deaths, 17 were reported unnatural (one accident, 5 suicides, 11 homicides) and 4 were from natural causes (2 heart attack, 2 cancer). This update calculates the probabilities based on 1) the weighted average mortality rate of  the 17 unnatural deaths and 2) the assumption that the 17 were all homicides.

Based on circumstantial evidence, it is highly likely that many of the  accidents, suicides and  natural deaths were actually homicides. The 4 reported natural deaths were not included in the calculations.

The  Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events. Given unnatural death rate  R, the probability P of at least n deaths among a group of N individuals in T years is  P  = 1- poisson (n-1, E, true) where E=N*R*T.

This spreadsheet calculates the probability for any combination of N, n, R and T. Age-adjusted death rates were based on U.S. mortality/deaths by major causes

Assuming N=10,000  DNC/Wikileaks/Clinton Foundation related individuals, the probability of at least 17 homicides (R=0.00006) is 1 in 4.3 trillion (2.3E-13).                               
The probability of  1 accident, 5 suicides and 11 homicides (given the weighted unnatural rate R=0.00015) is 1 in 5.8 million. 

Sensitivity Matrix: Probabilities of n=8 to 17 homicides for N= 10,000-50,000 

n 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
8 1.1E-04 8.1E-03 6.4E-02 2.0E-01 4.0E-01
11 2.8E-07 1.6E-04 4.1E-03 2.8E-02 9.9E-02
14 3.5E-10 1.6E-06 1.3E-04 2.0E-03 1.3E-02
17 2.3E-13 8.1E-09 2.2E-06 7.8E-05 9.6E-04
1 in 4.3 trillion 124 million 464,000 12,700 1,044


Suspicious deaths
5 Wikileaks: Jones, Ratner,  McFayden, Smith, Dolan
7 Clinton Foundation: Flynn, Petersen, Eberwein, Lorich, Sherman (2), Cincinelli
4 DNC: Seth Rich, Montano, Lucas, Whisenant
6 Other: Ashe, Thorn, Rago, Smolek, Mostyn, Moore

2016 (10)
4/18  John JonesAssange lawyer, run over by train. Suicide?
5/11: Michael Ratner, Wikileaks NY lawyer, cancer.
6/22  John Ashe, former UN official.  Initially reported as a heart attack,  the official story changed to his accidentally dropping a barbell on his throat. Ashe was about to begin trial for a bribery charge involving Chinese businessman Ng Lap Seng, who had been implicated in the 1996 “China-gate” scandal  Ashe was supposed to testify about Clinton’s links to Ng Lap Seng. Accident?
6/23: Mike Flynn,48, writing for  Breitbart News, died of a heart attack within hours after reporting on the Clinton Foundation China connection.

7/10  Seth Rich, DNC e-mail leaker to Wikileaks, shot twice in back, died in hospital.

7/25: Joe Montano, 47, Chairman of DNC,  heart attack,  right after the WikiLeaks email dump proving the DNC sabotaged Bernie Sanders and handed the nomination to Hillary Clinton. No history of heart problems.
8/01 Victor Thorn,  author of books on Clintons, gunshots. Suicide?
8/02  Shawn Lucas, DNC process server, lethal combination of drugs. Suicide?
Oct : Gavin McFayden (Wikileaks founder), cancer.
Nov:  Monica Petersen, investigating CF child trafficking, found dead in Haiti. Suicide?

2017 (9)
May: Peter Smith, GOP operative, found dead from asphyxiation in a Minnesota hotel room just days after talking to the Wall Street Journal about his efforts to obtain Hillary’s Clinton’s missing emails. Suicide?
Beranton Whisenant, prosecutor investigating DNC, found dead on Hollywood, FL beach. Suicide?
July: Klaus Eberwein, former Haiti Government official found dead in a motel room with a gunshot wound to the head. Was to testify on Clinton Foundation connection to Haitian earthquake charity. Suicide?
Joseph Rago, 34, WSJ reporter, asked Russians for info on Clinton,  Obama critic, found dead. Suicide?
Kurt Smolek, ties to PizzaGate and child trafficking ring in Cambodia, found dead in Potomac River. Suicide?
Nov: Steve Mostyn, 46, Texas-based trial lawyer,  member of George Soros-founded Democracy Alliance, major Democratic benefactor, died suddenly. Suicide?
Dec: Dr. Dean Lorich, surgeon, exposed Clinton Foundation corruption in Haiti, stabbed in chest. Suicide?
Barry and Honey Sherman. Originally declared a murder-suicide, investigators concluded it was a murder staged to look like a murder-suicide involving multiple perpetrators. Barry Sherman founded Apotex pharmaceutical company which supplied generic drugs to the Clinton foundation in Haiti and Rwanda. The Clinton Foundation was scandalized when it was discovered that AIDS drugs sent to the third world were watered-down.

Jan: James Dolan, 36, Wikileaks developer. Suicide ?
Aug: Jen Moore, journalist of Clinton sex crimes, found dead in a DC hotel. Suicide?

July: Salvatore Cincinelli, Supervisory FBI special agent who spearheaded many of the FBI’s high-profile and complex Wall Street investigations, including probing the finances of the Clinton Foundation. Reportedly shot and killed himself on a crowded night-club dance floor, according to top FBI insiders. Suicide?

How many DNC voter data admins were there? How many DNC process servers? How many HRC biographers? How many Assange lawyers? How many Wikileaks founders? How many UN officials preparing to testify? How many DNC officials? How many investigative reporters on the Clintons? Are any of these deaths being investigated? Any suspects?

 New Developments in the Seth Rich case             

Written By: Tracy Beanz

An amended complaint in a civil suit brings to light new information in the controversial death of DNC staffer Seth Rich

A newly filed amended complaint in a lawsuit brought against a litany of defendants, including Turner Broadcasting, Anderson Cooper and the NY Times, alleges that Ellen Ratner, a Fox News analyst and White House Correspondent for Talk Media News, met with Julian Assange in the Fall of 2016 and received information from Assange that Seth Rich and his brother Aaron were responsible for releasing the controversial DNC emails to Wikileaks for publication.

The lawsuit seeks damages for several claims, including defamation, business disparagement, malicious prosecution, and civil rights violations.

The amended complaint contains specific details of Butowsky’s interactions with Ratner. The complaint states the following: (RCH is abbreviated to mean “Russian Collusion Hoax”)

Mr. Butowsky stumbled into the RCH crosshairs after Ellen Ratner, a news analyst for Fox News and the White House correspondent for Talk Media News, contacted him in the Fall of 2016 about a meeting she had with Mr. Assange. Ms. Ratner’s brother, the late Michael Ratner, was an attorney who had represented Mr. Assange. According to Ms. Ratner, she made a stop in London during a return flight from Berlin, and she met with Mr. Assange for approximately six hours in the Ecuadorean embassy. Ms. Ratner said Mr. Assange told her that Seth Rich and his brother, Aaron, were responsible for releasing the DNC emails to Wikileaks. Ms. Ratner said Mr. Assange wanted the information relayed to Seth’s parents, as it might explain the motive for Seth’s murder. Upon her return to the United States, Ms. Ratner asked Mr. Butowsky to contact the Rich family and relay the information from Mr. Assange, apparently because Ms. Ratner did not want her involvement to be made public. In the two months that followed, Mr. Butowsky did not attempt to contact the Rich family, but he grew increasingly frustrated as the DNC and #Resistance “journalists” blamed the Russian government for the email leak.

Subpoenas issued for FBI, Crowdstrike and DNC :

NSA FOIA Response reveals Seth Rich & Assange/Wikileaks communications are Classified



In 1964-78, there were an estimated 1500 JFK-related material witnesses, of whom 122 died suspiciously. Seventy-eight(78) of the 122 were officially ruled unnatural. Of the 78, 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths:P= 2.7E-31 (1 in a million trillion trillion).

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were likely homicides.

Of the remaining 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides based on the total number of expected deaths. Therefore, there were 85-90 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. For 10,000 witnesses, Probability P= 5.5E-47


Simkin JFK Index of 656 key individuals: 70 suspicious deaths
44 ruled unnatural (22 homicides, 11 accidents 11 suicides): P= 4.4E-41
Assuming 44 were homicides: P= 3.8E-66


Posted by on May 20, 2017 in 2016 election, JFK, Uncategorized


Tags: , , , , , , , ,

27 responses to “Probability Analysis: DNC, Wikileaks, Clinton Foundation suspicious deaths

  1. rockrooky

    May 20, 2017 at 4:37 pm

    Can you apply this to the deaths related the 2016 primary? Appreciate your work. Mickey

    From: Richard Charnin’s Blog To: Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2017 9:04 AM Subject: [New post] Quick Mortality Probability Calculator #yiv7034917028 a:hover {color:red;}#yiv7034917028 a {text-decoration:none;color:#0088cc;}#yiv7034917028 a.yiv7034917028primaryactionlink:link, #yiv7034917028 a.yiv7034917028primaryactionlink:visited {background-color:#2585B2;color:#fff;}#yiv7034917028 a.yiv7034917028primaryactionlink:hover, #yiv7034917028 a.yiv7034917028primaryactionlink:active {background-color:#11729E;color:#fff;}#yiv7034917028 | Richard Charnin posted: “Quick Mortality Probability CalculatorRichard CharninMay 20, 2017What is the probability that in a random group of N individuals, n would die unnaturally (homicide, suicide, accident) or strictly by homicide over T years? You can run the calculato” | |

    • Richard Charnin

      May 22, 2017 at 8:45 am

      You can enter your own inputs to the spreadsheet, as I stated in the post.
      The parameters: n,R,T,N

      • Fletcher Jamieson

        June 9, 2017 at 11:28 am

        Do you think you could do an analysis of the death of Chris Cornell? A lot of people think he was murdered. Would love to see what you find.

      • Richard Charnin

        June 12, 2017 at 5:35 pm


  2. Carol Bronder

    June 2, 2017 at 10:31 pm

    Richard, Someone just sent this to CrowdsourceTheTruth. Have you watched their videos/livestreams? They have some files from the DNC NGP-VAN and are asking people to download and analyze.

  3. Richard Charnin

    June 4, 2017 at 8:07 am

    I gave them links to some of my blog posts in comments to their videos. I am not going to download the DNC files.


    July 9, 2017 at 11:27 am

    Thank you for your service, Mr. Charnin

  5. ArtSci

    July 9, 2017 at 11:41 am

    Reblogged this on

  6. Joanne Farrell

    July 16, 2017 at 12:54 pm

    I frickin LOVE Statistics 💜

  7. Dori Schwartz

    September 3, 2017 at 8:21 pm

    I take issue with the data used to base these calculations on. First, Shawn Lucas, was just a process server. He wasn’t a party to the case, he wasn’t a lawyer on the case. A process server is like a mailman delivering a registered letter, except it’s the notification that legal proceedings have been started against you. He had nothing to do with the DNC and his death changes nothing in regards to the case against the DNC. Second, John Ashe, although his death sounds suspicious, according to the district attorney’s office for the case, he was not set to testify against the Clinton’s at any point in the trial, where he was a defendant for conspiracy to bribe a UN official, payment of bribes, money laundering, and tax fraud. You can look up the charging document on Snopes, it’s 30 pages long, and no mention of any Clintons. Then there’s Mike Flynn, who reportedly died of a heart attack. He was a writer for Breitbart, who often wrote about the Clintons, just like any number of writers working in conservative media. What exactly is suspicious about the death of a conservative writer coinciding with his publishing of a negative story about someone from an opposing party in the middle of election season? If he died late thursday evening we could guess that he was at home with his family, so even if it was murder, what would the method be to cause a delayed heart attack? If you actually go down the line and look at the supporting evidence used to debunk some of these stories, I think you’d end up with a much shorter list.


      September 3, 2017 at 8:59 pm

      You’re flat out wrong. Part of the DNC’s defense was a motion to dismiss based on how the case was served. He was a witness in the case.

    • Richard Charnin

      September 7, 2017 at 7:46 am

      Ashe was due in court Monday with his Chinese businessman co-defendant Ng Lap Seng, who is charged with smuggling $4.5 million into the US since 2013 and lying that it was to buy art and casino chips.

      Ng was identified in a 1998 Senate report as the source of hundreds of thousands of dollars illegally funneled through an Arkansas restaurant owner, Charlie Trie, to the Democratic National Committee during the Clinton administration. (Ng was not charged with any crime.)

      Ng and Trie had visited the White House several times for Democratic fundraising events and were photographed with then-President Bill Clinton and first lady Hillary Clinton.

      During the trial, the prosecutors would have linked Ashe to the Clinton bagman Ng. It would have been very embarrassing. His death was conveniently timed.

    • Kim Holleman

      March 27, 2018 at 5:44 am

      He was a witness. He was in the lawsuit. Sorry you don’t realize that.

    • Carol Sweeney

      July 26, 2018 at 5:30 pm

      Dori, firstly do not use Snopes for anything, they are bought and paid for, same for most of those fact check companies. Also Annenberg Foundation connection to Bill Ayers and Barack O.

      • Dori

        August 1, 2018 at 12:23 am

        You should try reading what I wrote, over and over again. If you use critical thinking and check sources you don’t have to summarily dismiss or accept any one source. Snopes links to the charging documents I was referring to, and I was basing my statement about the case by what was written in the charging document.


    September 3, 2017 at 9:03 pm

    “Snopes” is a joke. The fact that “Facebook” told you Snopes was ok, should have been your ENORMOUS RED FLAG that it was not credible. The founder of Snopes was sued by his wife for his embezzlement from the company to pay for an escort he later married. Please do not come onto the blog of a mathematician and attempt to do any form of serious debunking using “Snopes”. Snopes is basically the fact checking version of The Enquirer.

    • Dori Schwartz

      September 4, 2017 at 8:32 am

      That’s the thing about facts, you don’t need to rely on the reputation of the person who asserts them, they speak for themselves. On the snopes page for that particular person, they link to the 30 page charging document, where all the parties involved are listed, and a detailed account of the case is put forward. There is no Clinton connection to that case, period.


        September 4, 2017 at 8:42 am

        Unless your entire refutation of something *rests* on the fact checking service’s integrity. You used zero information other than to quote Snopes, which is laughable and insulting on a mathematician’s blog. You’re embarrassing yourself.

    • Dori Schwartz

      September 4, 2017 at 7:44 pm

      These are the charging documents against John Ashe, where you won’t find any mention of Clinton anyone. Of course if you were interested in the truth you could have gone to the snopes page and clicked on the link to familiarize yourself with what the case was really about.


    September 4, 2017 at 8:45 am

    To the original point, “You’re flat out wrong. Part of the DNC’s defense was a motion to dismiss based on how the case was served. He was a witness in the case.” I have already proven you wrong about Sean Lucas and now you’re attempting to argue “Snopes” is reputable because you saw it on facebook. I’ll leave it at that.

  10. Dori Schwartz

    September 4, 2017 at 8:20 pm

    As for Shawn Lucas and the DNC’s motion to dismiss, his death changed absolutely nothing about the case. First of all, there were two employees present for the service plus a videographer. So they would have had to kill all three guys and erase the viral video from the internet. Second, the DNC filed their motion on the 22 of July, before Lucas death, not because he wasn’t around to testify. Third, the reason reason they filed the motion, and the reason they won, is that the process servers served the wrong person, and they didn’t serve Wasserman Shultz at all. And Finally, after the motion to dismiss was granted, you know what the terrible punishment was? They had to re-serve them with documents. To say that Lucas’ death was beneficial in any way to the DNC is beyond ridiculous.


      September 5, 2017 at 9:03 am

      You saying a bunch of stuff isn’t fact or truth, Doris. He was a witness in the case that was murdered. That is a fact. You cannot dispute that fact. Your opinion about if it does or does not change the case is irrelevant to the fact that he was a murdered witness. As for the judge dismissing the case, if you had bothered to read the order instead of just posting the link from Snooopies Facts ‘R Us, you’d read that the Judge agreed with the premise of fraud.

      • Dori Schwartz

        September 5, 2017 at 10:31 am

        The court documents and orders are posted online by the court. All you have to do is read them to see that what I said is exactly right. You clearly haven’t read the document I just posted, because you’re talking about a completely different order.

  11. Dori Schwartz

    September 4, 2017 at 8:21 pm

    Here’s the judge’s order on the motion to dismiss.


      September 5, 2017 at 12:07 pm

      What you are saying is irrelevant. We are talking about Sean Lucas and Seth Rich or have you forgotten what blog you’re on? You attempted to refute a mathematician’s premise by using Snopes.You’re embarrassing yourself.


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