July 17, 2017
There were approximately 50 UNNATURAL deaths (murders, accidents, suicides) of HOLISTIC doctors in one year. Was this reported in the mainstream media? What is the probability?
Media shills like Snopes make the same mistakes as Warren Commission defenders. They don’t understand that calculating probabilities requires…
1) the number of UNNATURAL deaths – NOT total deaths.
2) UNNATURAL MORTALITY RATES: homicides (0.00005), accidents (0.00038) and suicides (0.00012). They are much lower than rates of “natural” causes.
3) the NUMBER of HOLISTIC doctors- NOT the total of ALL doctors.
4) knowing that MOTIVE for the deaths is NOT a factor in the calculation.
The Poisson probability function is based on the number of ACTUAL UNNATURAL deaths (n) and the EXPECTED number (E) in the group (N).
Probability = poisson (n, E, false)
E=N*R*T is based on the WEIGHTED unnatural mortality rate (R), population size (N) and the time period (T).
Since we do not know N, the number of holistic doctors, we calculate the probability assuming N=50,000, 75,000 and 100,000. The probability decreases as N increases.
Given: n= 50 unnatural deaths, R= 0.0002, T= 1 year, N is unknown.
N= 100,000: P = 7.63E-09 or P= 1 in 131,058,359
(E=20 deaths would be expected)
N= 75,000: P= 6.41E-13 = 1 in 1,559,298,094,732 (1 in 1.6 trillion)
(E=15 deaths would be expected)
N= 50,000: P= 1.49E-19 = 1 in 6,699,149,835,876,030,000
(1 in 6.7 million trllion)
(E=10 deaths would be expected)