## 2016 State Presidential True Vote Model

25 Aug

2016 State Presidential True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
Aug. 25, 2017

This is an analysis of the presidential vote in each of the 50 states and DC. To view the calculations for any state, just click the State tab. No input is required.

Since the 2012 election,  exit pollsters no longer provide the crosstab Who did you vote for in the previous election?  Like all crosstabs, it was matched to the recorded vote.  The  Trump, Clinton and 3rd party shares of returning Obama and Romney voters are not available. However we can closely approximate the crosstab  by calculating the shares required to match the recorded vote.

National Result
Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.87 million (48.25-46.14%).
Trump won the True Vote by 1.69 million (47.61-46.37%). He had 323 electoral votes.

Note:  Trump must have done better than the model indicates, since it uses vote shares derived to match the recorded vote that was biased for Clinton.

Assumptions

• Recorded vote: 95% turnout of Obama and Romney voters in 2016. Vote shares are forced to match the state recorded vote.
• True Vote: 89% turnout of Obama voters and 95% turnout of Romney voters.  Vote shares remain the same as used in the recorded vote.  The assumption is that 6% of Obama voters who were for Bernie Sanders in the primary did not return to vote in the presidential election. But an unknown number voted for Jill Stein and Donald Trump.

View the data and calculations for each state.  For instance, click the FL tab.