Richard Charnin
Sept.15, 2017
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO POSTS
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote
In 16 battleground states, Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%, a 2.1% margin. Clinton led the pre-election polls by 44.5-44.1%, a 0.4% margin.
When undecided voters are allocated (UVA), Trump leads the 16-poll average 46.6-45.3%. Using the Gallup National Voter affiliation survey (40Ind-32Dem-28Rep) to derive each state’s Party-ID, Trump leads 48.9-43.1%.
Clinton won the 16 unadjusted exit polls 47.4-45.6%, a 1.8% margin.
There was a 2.5% average margin discrepancy between the pre-election 16-poll average and the corresponding recorded vote average. The 4.6% difference between the 2.5% discrepancy and the 2.1% national recorded margin is an indicator that the pre-election polls were biased for the Democrats.
In 10 final National pre-election polls, Clinton led 46.8-43.6%, a 3.2% margin. She won the National recorded vote by 48.3-46.2%, a 2.1% margin.
Summary of 16 Battleground states:
Unweighted averages:
Clinton won the pre-election polls by 44.5-44.1%.
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 47.4-45.6%
Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%.
Trump won the UVA-adjusted polls by 46.6-45.3%.
Trump won the Gallup Party-ID adjusted polls by 48.9-43.1%.
Weighted averages (56.8 million votes):
Clinton won the pre-election polls by 45.0-44.7%.
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 47.5-46.1%
Trump won the recorded vote by 48.4-46.1%.
Trump won the UVA-adjusted polls by 47.0-45.7%.
Trump won the Gallup Party-ID adjusted polls by 48.5-43.9%.
Battleground Exit poll discrepancies:
Recorded vote:3.9%; UVA:3.1%; Pre-election polls:1.4%; Gallup:7.6%
UVA: Undecided Voter Allocation: Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%.
Trump likely won the national vote by 48-44% (5 million votes).
Real Clear Politics (RCP)is the data source for the pre-election polls:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/state/
View the data and calculations for the 16 state polls, recorded votes, unadjusted exit polls and undecided voters: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1579502018
| Trump | Pre-elect | UVA | Recorded | Exit polls |
True Vote
|
| AZ | 46.3 | 48.3 | 48.1 | 46.9 | 50.7 |
| CO | 40.4 | 44.3 | 43.3 | 41.5 | 48.9 |
| FL | 46.6 | 48.1 | 48.6 | 46.4 | 48.0 |
| GA | 49.2 | 50.0 | 50.5 | 48.2 | 52.6 |
| IA | 44.3 | 47.6 | 51.2 | 48.0 | 52.1 |
| ME | 39.5 | 44.5 | 44.9 | 40.2 | 48.6 |
| MI | 42.0 | 45.4 | 47.3 | 46.8 | 47.1 |
| MN | 39.0 | 40.8 | 44.9 | 45.8 | 46.5 |
| MO | 50.3 | 52.0 | 56.4 | 51.2 | 51.4 |
| NV | 45.8 | 47.2 | 45.5 | 42.8 | 47.1 |
| NH | 42.7 | 45.9 | 46.5 | 44.2 | 51.1 |
| NC | 46.5 | 49.2 | 49.9 | 46.5 | 46.3 |
| OH | 45.8 | 48.3 | 51.3 | 47.1 | 50.1 |
| PA | 44.3 | 47.2 | 48.2 | 46.1 | 45.6 |
| VA | 42.3 | 44.6 | 44.4 | 43.2 | 48.4 |
| WI | 40.3 | 42.9 | 47.2 | 44.3 | 47.4 |
| AVERAGE | 44.1 | 46.6 | 48.0 | 45.6 | 48.9 |
Richard Charnin's Blog 