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Race: 2016 National Exit Poll vs. Census

22 Oct

Richard Charnin
Oct. 22, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The National Exit Poll (NEP) shows Trump winning white voters by 57-37%. Clinton had 89% of Blacks and 66% of Latinos. As always, the NEP was forced to closely match the recorded vote.

Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.8 million votes (48.3-46.2%).
Clinton won the NEP by 2.2 million votes (47.9-46.3%).
Clinton won the Census-adjusted NEP by 800,000 votes (47.4-46.8%).

Trump wins by 3.6 million votes (48.6-46.1%) after adjusting the recorded vote for illegals, disenfranchised and machine vote flips.

Compare the Census (0.3% margin of error for votes cast) to the NEP.  Which is closer to the truth?

Race Census MoE NEP
White 73.30% (0.4%) 71%
Black 12.45% (1.1%) 12%
Latino 9.22% (1.5%) 11%
Asian 3.67% (1.9%) 4%
Other  1.34% …… 2%

National Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)  http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president

NEP 2016 Clinton Trump Other
White 71.0% 37% 57% 6%
Black 12.0% 89% 8% 3%
Latino 11.0% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 4.0% 65% 29% 8%
Other 2.0% 56% 36% 8%
Calculated 100.0% 47.93% 46.31% 5.76%
Recorded 136,216 48.25% 46.17% 5.58%

Recorded votes vs. Census votes cast

According to the 2016 Census, 137.5 million votes were cast (0.3% margin of error).
136.2 million votes were recorded.
Therefore there were 1.3 million uncounted votes
Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.8 million: 65.7-62.9 (48.3-46.2%)

 Scenario I:  Estimated Adjustments to the Recorded Vote

1- According to Greg Palast, 1 million voters were disenfranchised due to Cross-check.
2- Assume 1.3 million additional voters were disenfranchised.
3- Researchers claim there were at least 1 million illegal voters.
Matching the Census 137.5 million: There were 1.3 million uncounted votes.

Assumptions:
1) Clinton had 80% of illegal and disenfranchised voters
2) 3.2 million votes (4.8%) were flipped on voting machines from Trump to Clinton.
3) 0.6 million votes were flipped from third parties to Clinton.

Trump is a winner by 3.3 million votes (48.2-45.8%}

Votes  Clinton Trump Other
Illegal 1.0 80% 15% 5%
Disenfran. 2.3 80% 15% 5%
Net Vote Flip 4.0 5% 80% 15%
Adjustment Total Clinton Trump Other Margin
Recorded  136.22 65.72 62.89 7.61 2.83
Share   48.25% 46.17% 5.59% 2.08%
Illegal -1.0 -0.80 -0.15 -0.05 -0.65
Disenfran. 2.3 1.84 0.35 0.12 1.50
Net Vote Flip 0.0 -3.80 3.20 0.60 -7.00
AdjVote 137.52 62.96 66.28 8.27 3.33
 Share   45.78% 48.20% 6.02%  2.42%

NEP Race Demographic: Census and share of Whites matched to the adjusted  vote

Race Census Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 73.30% 34.7% 58.9% 6.4%
Black 12.45% 89% 8% 3%
Latino 9.22% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 3.67% 65% 27% 8%
Other 1.36% 56% 36% 8%
Adj Share 100.0% 45.78% 48.20% 6.02%
Votes 137.52 62.96 66.28 8.27
Recorded 100.0% 48.25% 46.17% 5.59%

Sensitivity Analysis: Adjusted NEP

Illegal to Clinton
Vote Flip 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%
to Clinton Trump 
3.0% 48.2% 48.3% 48.3%
5.0% 48.1% 48.20% 48.3%
7.0% 48.1% 48.1% 48.2%
Clinton 
3.0% 45.8% 45.7% 45.7%
5.0% 45.9% 45.78% 45.7%
7.0% 45.9% 45.8% 45.8%
Trump Vote
3.0% 66.26 66.36 66.46
5.0% 66.18 66.28 66.38
7.0% 66.10 66.20 66.30
Margin
3.0% 3.28 3.48 3.68
5.0% 3.12 3.33 3.52
7.0% 2.96 3.17 3.36

Sensitivity Analysis: Trump shares of whites and blacks

Census
% of Whites
56.9% 57.9% 58.86% 59.86% 60.86%
% of Blacks Trump
10% 46.98% 47.72% 48.45% 49.18% 49.92%
9% 46.86% 47.59% 48.33% 49.06% 49.79%
8% 46.73% 47.47% 48.20% 48.93% 49.67%
7% 46.61% 47.34% 48.08% 48.81% 49.54%
6% 46.49% 47.22% 47.95% 48.68% 49.42%
Clinton
10% 47.00% 46.27% 45.53% 44.80% 44.07%
9% 47.12% 46.39% 45.66% 44.93% 44.19%
8% 47.25% 46.52% 45.78% 45.05% 44.32%
7% 47.37% 46.64% 45.91% 45.17% 44.44%
6% 47.50% 46.77% 46.03% 45.30% 44.57%
 Share Margin
10% -0.02% 1.45% 2.92% 4.38% 5.85%
9% -0.27% 1.20% 2.67% 4.13% 5.60%
8% -0.51% 0.95% 2.42% 3.88% 5.35%
7% -0.76% 0.70% 2.17% 3.63% 5.10%
6% -1.01% 0.45% 1.92% 3.39% 4.85%
 Vote Margin
10% -0.02 1.99 4.01 6.03 8.04
9% -0.36 1.65 3.67 5.68 7.70
8% -0.71 1.31 3.33 5.34 7.36
7% -1.05 0.97 2.98 5.00 7.01
6% -1.39 0.62 2.64 4.66 6.67

Scenario II:  Adjustments to the Recorded Vote

Base case assumptions: Illegals, disenfranchised voters and machine vote flips

1) Illegals: 80% of 1 million for Clinton
2) Uncounted: 80% of 7 million disenfranchised and cross-checked for Clinton
3) Voting machines: 4.1 million (net) Trump votes  and 0.5 million third-party votes flipped to Clinton

 Adjustments to the Recorded Vote

Assumption
 Votes to Clinton Trump Other
Illegal 1.0 80% 15% 5%
Disinfran. 7.0 80% 15% 5%
Net Vote Flip 5.0 8% 82% 10%
Total Clinton Trump Other Margin
Recorded  136.22 65.72 62.89 7.61 2.83
    48.25% 46.17% 5.59% 2.08%
Illegal -1.0 -0.80 -0.15 -0.05
Disenfran. 7.0 5.60 1.05 0.35
Net Vote Flip 0.0 -4.60 4.10 0.50
True Vote 142.22 65.92 67.89 8.41 1.97
 Share   46.35% 47.74% 5.91% 1.39%
 
Illegal to Clinton
 
Vote Flip 75.0% 80.0% 85.0%
to Clinton   Trump Vote
6.0% 67.94 67.99 68.04
8.0% 67.84 67.89 67.94
10.0% 67.74 67.79 67.84
Flip Trump
6.0% 47.77% 47.81% 47.84%
8.0% 47.70% 47.74% 47.77%
10.0% 47.63% 47.67% 47.70%
Flip Clinton
6.0% 46.32% 46.28% 46.25%
8.0% 46.39% 46.35% 46.32%
10.0% 46.46% 46.42% 46.39%
Flip Margin
6.0% 2.07 2.17 2.27
8.0% 1.87 1.97 2.07
10.0% 1.67 1.77 1.87

 

 

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Posted by on October 22, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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