Oct. 30, 2017
The 1977 House Select Committee on Assassination (HSCA) claimed that the London Sunday Times actuary’s probability calculation of 18 material witnesses deaths (13 unnatural) in the three years following the assassination (1 in 100,000 trillion) was invalid. The HSCA claimed that it was impossible to calculate the probability because the witness universe was unknown. This canard was essential to the coverup. No one did the math until I confirmed the actuary’s calculation in 2003
But there were many definable witness groups. Let’s take a look at the 600 estimated Dealey Plaza witnesses of whom 28 died suspiciously (14 were ruled unnatural: 5 homicides, 7 accidents, 2 suicides).
Assuming 600 Dealey Plaza witnesses, the probability of at least 14 ruled unnatural deaths during the period 1963-1978 is P = 1- poisson (13, 1.727, true) = 1 in 207 million.
But the nine accidents and suicides were likely homicides.
The probability of at least 14 homicides for 400, 600 and 1000 witnesses:
400: P= 1 in 750 trillion
600: P =1- poisson (13, 0.864, true) = 1 in 3.7 trillion
1000: P = 1 in 4.8 billion
Sixteen Dealey Plaza witnesses testified at the Warren Commission, 3 were sought to testify at the Garrison trial, 3 at the Church Senate hearings and 3 at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA).
JFK witness unnatural death probabilities have been posted for the following groups: Warren Commission, London Times actuary, Garrison/ Shaw trial, Church Senate Hearings, HSCA, Simkin Educational Forum, JFK-related 1400+ witness “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”.
At least 20 Dealey Plaza witnesses were called to testify at W= Warren Commission, G=Garrison Trial, C= Church investigation, H= HSCA
|Died yymm||Witness||W, G C, H||Category|
|3||7805||David Morales||H||CIA ANTI-CASTRO|
|5||6512||William Whaley||W||WITNESS TSBD|
|7||6611||James Worrell||W||WITNESS TSBD|
|8||7502||Ira (Jack) Beers||W||MEDIA|
|9||7901||Billy Lovelady||W||WITNESS TSBD|
|13||6701||Jack Ruby||W||MAFIA POLICE LHO|
|15||8403||Roy Kellerman||W||Secret Service|
|20||7801||Clint “Lummie” Lewis||WH||POLICE|
|21||7101||Mac Wallace||TSBD Shooter|
|23||7309||Thomas E. Davis||RUBY CIA|
|24||6901||Charles Mentesana *||WITNESS TSBD|
|26||6311||Lee Harvey Oswald||RUBY FBI CIA|
|27||6311||J.D. Tippit||RUBY POLICE|
Dealey Plaza witnesses: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=79
Quick JFK Witness death Calculator: