Las Vegas suspicious deaths: a probability analysis

04 Nov

Las Vegas suspicious deaths: a probability analysis

Richard Charnin
Nov.4, 2017
Updated Nov.6, 2017

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There have been seven suspicious deaths one month after the Las Vegas attacks .  Were they murdered? We don’t know. Therefore,  we calculate the probability over a range from 1 to 7  homicides.

1) N random individuals,
2) n homicides
3) R annual homicide rate
4) T years
E= N*R*T is the expected number of homicides

The probability of at least n homicides in T years is
P = 1- poisson (n-1, E, true)

Given N = 22,000 concert attendees, the probability of at least 7 homicides in one month is P = 1 in 100 billion.

These factors are used in the calculation:
N = 22,000 to 500,000  individuals (universe)
T = 1 month = .083 years
R =0.00005 (1 in 20,000)

For n = 7 homicides and
N= 22,000: P =1 in 100 billion (22,000 concert attendees)
N= 30,000: P= 1 in 11.8 billion
N= 50,000: P= 1 in 355 million
N= 100,000: P= 1 in 3.3 million
N= 200,000: P= 1 in 37 thousand
N= 500,000: P= 1 in 178

The following table displays probabilities of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 7 homicides for groups ranging from N= 22,000 to 500,000.

Probability of at least n homicides in one month in a random group of N 

 n N=22k N=30k N=50k N=100k N=200k N= 500k
1 8.8% 11.8% 18.8% 34.1% 56.5% 87.6%
2 0.40% 0.72% 1.9% 6.6% 20.3% 61.6%
3 0.01% 0.03% 0.13% 0.89% 5.2% 34.6%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.09% 1.0% 15.8%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.56%
1 in
 7 100 billion 11.8 billion 355 mil 3.3 mil 37,000 178

Orville Almon (1) was the lawyer representing the Route 91 music festival and Jason Aldean, the singer onstage when the shooting began. Almon’s death was described by local Nashville media as “seizure during sleep”.

Kymberley Suchomel (2) of Apple Valley, California, a shooting survivor who was found dead in her home hours after her husband left for work.

Danny Contreras (3) was a Las Vegas local who had been contradicting the official narrative that only one shooter fired on the Route 91 Harvest festival crowd.

Dennis (4) and Lorraine Carver (5), a Las Vegas couple who survived the  shooting, were engulfed by flames in their car just meters from their home. They were speaking out about the lies being pushed in the official narrative.

John Beilman (6) killed himself and his disabled daughter (7) in an apparent murder-suicide. He was wanted by federal agents following the discovery of a communications device in the hotel room of the officially identified shooter Stephen Paddock.


Posted by on November 4, 2017 in Uncategorized


11 responses to “Las Vegas suspicious deaths: a probability analysis

  1. Peter Ross

    November 5, 2017 at 12:31 pm

    Maybe n=10, considering the mysterious security guard, ‘Jesus Campos’?

  2. Dustin

    November 5, 2017 at 4:26 pm

    Thank you for your effort on this but I wonder if you could correct your figures. First, Jason Aldean is not dead so your death toll is incorrect. Second, your lowest group size variable is 30k but there were about 22k people at the concert.

    • Richard Charnin

      November 6, 2017 at 1:47 pm

      I fixed it and took out Aldean. The title of the source post was misleading.
      I know there were 22k at the concert. I wanted to be conservative so I started at 30k.
      I now start at 22k.

      • kannony

        November 6, 2017 at 10:15 pm

        By including the lawyer, you break the population size. The lawyer was not attending the concert and was therefore not a part of that population.

      • Richard Charnin

        November 11, 2017 at 3:51 pm

        But he is relevant. He was the lawyer representing the Route 91 music festival and Jason Aldean, the singer onstage when the shooting began. Almon’s death was described by local Nashville media as “seizure during sleep”. The timing and cause of death are suspicious. How do you know what he knew and where he was going with his information?

  3. joshua lord

    November 5, 2017 at 10:24 pm

    Good work! Chad Nishimura is alive and well, however.
    Or he was several days ago. Do you have evidence to the contrary?

    • Richard Charnin

      November 6, 2017 at 1:49 pm

      If he is alive I will fix the post. I used the article info.

  4. Tony Ogemahgeshig

    November 25, 2017 at 9:15 pm

    Exactly. What are the confounding variables in the study?

  5. John Allen Shaw

    December 28, 2017 at 5:48 am

    Why are you using Poisson Distribution and not Bayesian Approach? Nothing about this makes statistical sense.

    • Richard Charnin

      December 30, 2017 at 7:24 pm

      Look up the Poisson probability distribution of unlikely events. Murder is an unlikely event.


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