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2017 Alabama Senate: Jefferson County- Implausible voter turnout

12 Jan

Alabama Senate: Jefferson County- Implausible voter turnout

Richard Charnin
Jan. 12, 2018

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS

Problem: Estimate a) Clinton and Trump voter turnout in 2017 and b) Trump voter defection required to match the recorded vote.

In 2016, Clinton won Jefferson by 32,000 votes (52.3-45.0%).
In 2017, Jones won Jefferson by 83,000 votes (68.1-30.2%).

In order to match the vote, Jones needed
1) 25% higher 2016 Clinton voter turnout than Trump (85-60%).
2) 21% of returning Trump voters (8% would normally be expected to defect).
3) 98% of Clinton voters.

True Vote Estimate: Assume 80% turnout of Clinton voters and 66% of Trump  voters. Moore wins 84% of Trump voters and 3% of Clinton.   Jones’ margin in Jefferson is reduced from 83,000 to 56,000 votes.

Go to row 133
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YoXVkz6KGUoMzEDJBxwROEaukSkgqWVHX3qy_lBxIgc/edit#gid=0

Recorded Vote-Turnout Assumption: 85% Clinton; 60% Trump;60% Other

JEFFERSON COUNTY
2017
2016 Recorded Votes 99% Alive Turnout Turnout
Clinton 52.32% 156,873 155,304 85% 132,009
Trump 44.95% 134,768 133,420 60% 80,052
Other 2.73% 8,199 8,117 60% 4,870
Did Not Vote 2,610
TOTAL 100% 299,840 296,842 219,541
2017 Pct Jones Moore Other
Clinton 60.1% 98.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Trump 36.5% 21.0% 76.0% 3.0%
Other 2.2% 37.0% 40.0% 23.0%
DNV (new) 1.2% 59.0% 34.0% 7.0%
Match 100% 68.11% 30.21% 1.69%
Votes 219,541 149,521 66,315 3,704
Recorded 100% 68.11% 30.20% 1.69%
  219,541 149,522 66,309 3,710

True Vote estimate- Turnout Assumption: 80% Clinton; 66% Trump; 66% Other
2017 Pct Jones Moore Other
Clinton 56.6% 97.0% 2.0% 1.0%
Trump 40.1% 14.0% 84.0% 2.0%
Other 2.4% 37.0% 45.0% 18.0%
DNV (new) 0.9% 59.0% 34.0% 7.0%
True Estimate 100% 61.92% 36.21% 1.87%
Votes 219,541 135,937 79,504 4,100
Recorded 100% 68.11% 30.20% 1.69%
219,541 149,522 66,309 3,710

 

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Posted by on January 12, 2018 in 2016 election

 

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