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Exposing the 2016 Popular Vote Myth

05 Apr

Exposing the 2016 Popular Vote Myth

Richard Charnin
April 5, 2018

The myth that Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million is parroted daily by pundits, even Trump supporters. Clinton won a fraudulent recorded popular vote, but Trump won the True Vote. It’s 2018 and the pundits still fail to recognize the historical fact that the recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote.  It’s past time for a great awakening.

Trump wins the True Vote by 50.5-43.4%, a 9.7 million vote margin.

We estimate the True Vote based on the following simple models:

  • 1 Adjustments to the recorded vote: illegal votes , disenfranchised voters, voting machine flips
  • 2 Race: Census breakdown and shares of white and non-white voters
  • 3 Returning 2012 voters and 2016 vote shares
  • 4 Party-ID: Gallup voter survey and vote shares
  • 5 Decided: Vote shares before and after Sept. 1

Given Model 1 adjustments to the recorded vote, we calculate an estimated True Vote. In models 2,3,4,5 we estimate vote shares required to match the True Vote.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president

 Adjustment Estimate Clinton Trump Other
Illegal 3.0 mil 85% 10% 5%
Disenfran 4.0 mil 85% 10% 5%
Net Vote Flip 7.0 mil 0% 90% 10%
Total Clinton Trump Other Margin
Recorded  136.22 65.72 62.89 7.61 2.83
Adjustment 48.25% 46.17% 5.59% 2.08%
Illegal -3.0 -2.55 -0.30 -0.15 -2.25
Disenfran 4.0 3.40 0.40 0.20 3.00
Vote Flip 0.0 -7.00 6.30 0.70 -13.30
True Vote 137.22 59.57 69.29 8.36 9.72
43.41% 50.50% 6.09% 7.08%
Census Pct Clinton Trump Other
white (adj.) 73.30% 32.4% 61.14% 6.5%
Black 12.45% 84% 13% 3%
Latino 9.22% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 3.67% 65% 27% 8%
Other 1.36% 56% 36% 8%
Calc 100.00% 43.41% 50.50% 6.09%
Recorded 100% 48.25% 46.17% 5.59%
Gallup
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 31.0% 88.0% 10.0% 2.0%
Rep 28.0% 5.0% 92.0% 3.0%
Ind 41.0% 36.0% 53.0% 11.0%
Total 100.0% 43.44% 50.59% 5.97%
Votes 137.22 59.61 69.42 8.19
2012 Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama 41.33% 85% 10% 5%
Romney 40.80% 5% 92% 3%
Other 1.54% 35% 40% 25%
DNV (new) 16.32% 35% 51% 14%
Total 100.0% 43.43% 50.61% 5.96%
Votes 137.22 59.59 69.45 8.18
Decided Pct Clinton Trump Other
Before Sept 1 60.0% 48% 48% 4.0%
After Sept 1 40.0% 37% 54% 9.2%
True Vote   43.41% 50.50% 6.09%

Sensitivity Analysis

7 million vote flip  Trump Flip    
 to Clinton 80%= 5.6mm 90%= 6.3mm 100%=7mm
 Disenfranchised  
Trump True Vote
6.0 68.79 69.49 70.19
4.0 68.59 69.29 69.99
2.0 68.39 69.09 69.79
Trump
6.0 50.1% 50.6% 51.2%
4.0 50.0% 50.50% 51.0%
2.0 49.8% 50.4% 50.9%
Clinton
6.0 43.8% 43.3% 42.8%
4.0 43.9% 43.41% 42.9%
2.0 44.1% 43.6% 43.0%
Margin
6.0 8.72 10.12 11.52
4.0 8.32 9.72 11.12
2.0 7.92 9.32 10.72

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS

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