Exposing the 2016 Popular Vote Myth
Richard Charnin
April 5, 2018
The myth that Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million is parroted daily by pundits, even Trump supporters. Clinton won a fraudulent recorded popular vote, but Trump won the True Vote. It’s 2018 and the pundits still fail to recognize the historical fact that the recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote. It’s past time for a great awakening.
Trump won the estimated True Vote by 50.5-43.4%, a 9.7 million vote margin. We estimate the True Vote based on the following simple models:
- 1 Adjustments to the recorded vote: illegal votes , disenfranchised voters, voting machine flips
- 2 Race: Census breakdown and shares of white and non-white voters
- 3 Returning 2012 voters and 2016 vote shares
- 4 Party-ID: Gallup voter survey and vote shares
- 5 When Decided: before and after Sept. 1
Given Model 1 adjustments to the recorded vote, we calculate an estimated True Vote. In models 2,3,4,5 we estimate vote shares required to match the True Vote.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415 https://www.theepochtimes.com/voting-machines-in-16-states-tied-to-george-soros-ally_2176907.html http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president
| Input | Estimate | Clinton | Trump | Other |
| Illegal | 3.0 mil | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| Disenfranchise | 4.0 mil | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| Machine Flip | 7.0 mil | 0% | 90% | 10% |
| 1 Adjust | Total | Clinton | Trump | Other | Margin |
| Recorded | 136.22 | 65.72 | 62.89 | 7.61 | 2.83 |
| 48.25% | 46.17% | 5.59% | 2.08% | ||
| Illegal | -3.0 | -2.55 | -0.30 | -0.15 | -2.25 |
| Disenfran | 4.0 | 3.40 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 3.00 |
| Vote Flip | 0.0 | -7.00 | 6.30 | 0.70 | -13.30 |
| Total Vote | 137.22 | 59.57 | 69.29 | 8.36 | 9.72 |
| True Vote | 43.41% | 50.50% | 6.09% | 7.08% |
| 2 Census | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Other |
| white (adj.) | 73.30% | 32.4% | 61.14% | 6.5% |
| Black | 12.45% | 84% | 13% | 3% |
| Latino | 9.22% | 66% | 28% | 6% |
| Asian | 3.67% | 65% | 27% | 8% |
| Other | 1.36% | 56% | 36% | 8% |
| True Vote | 100.00% | 43.41% | 50.50% | 6.09% |
| Recorded | 100% | 48.25% | 46.17% | 5.59% |
| 3 Party-ID | Gallup Pct | Clinton | Trump | Other |
| Dem | 31.0% | 88.0% | 10.0% | 2.0% |
| Rep | 28.0% | 5.0% | 92.0% | 3.0% |
| Ind | 41.0% | 36.0% | 53.0% | 11.0% |
| True Vote | 100.0% | 43.44% | 50.59% | 5.97% |
| Votes | 137.22 | 59.61 | 69.42 | 8.19 |
| 4 Returning 2012 voters | Mix | Clinton | Trump | Other |
| Obama | 41.33% | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| Romney | 40.80% | 5% | 92% | 3% |
| Other | 1.54% | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| DNV (new) | 16.32% | 35% | 51% | 14% |
| True Vote | 100.0% | 43.43% | 50.61% | 5.96% |
| Votes | 137.22 | 59.59 | 69.45 | 8.18 |
| 5 When Decided | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Other |
| Before Sept 1 | 60.0% | 48% | 48% | 4.0% |
| After Sept 1 | 40.0% | 37% | 54% | 9.2% |
| True Vote | 43.41% | 50.50% | 6.09% |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Trump | |||||
| % Whites | 59.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | 62.0% | 63.0% |
| % Blacks | Trump % | ||||
| 16% | 49.28% | 50.01% | 50.75% | 51.48% | 52.21% |
| 15% | 49.15% | 49.89% | 50.62% | 51.35% | 52.09% |
| 14% | 49.03% | 49.76% | 50.50% | 51.23% | 51.96% |
| 13% | 48.91% | 49.64% | 50.37% | 51.10% | 51.84% |
| 12% | 48.78% | 49.51% | 50.25% | 50.98% | 51.71% |
| Clinton | |||||
| 16% | 44.63% | 43.90% | 43.16% | 42.43% | 41.70% |
| 15% | 44.75% | 44.02% | 43.29% | 42.56% | 41.82% |
| 14% | 44.88% | 44.15% | 43.41% | 42.68% | 41.95% |
| 13% | 45.00% | 44.27% | 43.54% | 42.80% | 42.07% |
| 12% | 45.13% | 44.39% | 43.66% | 42.93% | 42.20% |
| Share Margin | |||||
| 16% | 4.65% | 6.12% | 7.58% | 9.05% | 10.51% |
| 15% | 4.40% | 5.87% | 7.33% | 8.80% | 10.26% |
| 14% | 4.15% | 5.62% | 7.08% | 8.55% | 10.02% |
| 13% | 3.90% | 5.37% | 6.83% | 8.30% | 9.77% |
| 12% | 3.65% | 5.12% | 6.59% | 8.05% | 9.52% |
| Vote Margin | |||||
| 16% | 6.38 | 8.39 | 10.40 | 12.41 | 14.43 |
| 15% | 6.04 | 8.05 | 10.06 | 12.07 | 14.08 |
| 14% | 5.70 | 7.71 | 9.72 | 11.73 | 13.74 |
| 13% | 5.36 | 7.37 | 9.38 | 11.39 | 13.40 |
| 12% | 5.01 | 7.03 | 9.04 | 11.05 | 13.06 |
My Books
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
RECENT POSTS
2018 midterms
AZ Senate vs Governor a major discrepancy
Repub CA House races too close to call flipped to Dems
Did the GOP actually win the House?
2018 House probability analysis indicates fraud
What is the probability Dems will win the House?
Arizona CBS Senate Poll More Anomalies
Generic vote forecast model vs RCP average (10-29)
Analysis of inflated Democratic generic polls indicates Republicans will win the House
GOP wins Texas-SD-19 for first time in-139-years
Florida Governor Polling Analysis
Trump has a higher approval rating than MSM polls
Rasmussen vs. WaPo: Trump approval
Richard Charnin's Blog 
Kevin Trye
August 31, 2018 at 2:18 am
Somehow I can see you appearing on CNN any time soon to discuss this….
Richard Charnin
August 31, 2018 at 2:17 pm
Really? I doubt it.
Mike Powers
March 11, 2020 at 8:36 pm
I never believed otherwise. We knew Hillary screwed Bernie, so she’ll run a fair election against Trump? “Okay I believe you but my tommy gun don’t”. Only if the gawd of voting had compassion for (this demonic being aka) Hillary Clinton’s feelings she otherwise was creamed by Trump, Not that I liked Trump, but didn’t want Hillary anywhere near a position of authority.
Thanks for your work and confirming what I felt was true.