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Rasmussen vs. WaPo: Trump Approval

16 Aug

Richard Charnin
Updated: Aug.31, 2018

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According to Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Trump has a 48% total approval rating. Among black voters, he has 34% approval.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

The Washington Post tried to refute Rasmussen’s results with an article entitled “No, one-third of African Americans don’t support Trump. Not even close”.

The  Post needs to take an algebra class. WaPo says Trump total approval is 36% with 3% black approval. This is mathematically impossible, counter-intuitive and an insult to the intelligence of any rational reader.  

Once again, WaPo bias is showing. Given Rasmussen’s 48% total Trump approval, then 34% of blacks approve and 50% of non-blacks approve. Here is the proof based on the 88% non-black/12% black split of the electorate.
Given: Trump Approval =.48 (total)
Blacks = 12% of the electorate (34% Trump approval)
Let X = total non-black approval
.48= .88*X+.12*34
X=(.48-.12*.34)/.88
X= 0.50 non-black approval

Proof: If Trump has 3% black approval, then he must have 40% total approval (45% non-black approval) given the 88/12% split.
Total approval = non-black approval + black approval = .40 =0.88*0.45+0.12*0.03

The Harris-Harvard Poll shows that Trump has 45% total approval.
https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/news/caps-harris-poll-foreign-policy-and-supreme-court

WaPo Trump approval shenanigans: Party-ID
Once again, they over-sample Democrats. But they also inflate the poll shares. In this conservative analysis the Gallup poll shares are set equal to WaPo:
Trump approval Calculations: WaPo 34.4%, Gallup 38.5%

WaPo
……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 25 78
Indep 37 35
Dem.. 33 6
Total 95 34.4
Gallup
……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 28 78
Indep 43 35
Dem.. 27 6
Total 98 38.5

Sensitivity- Adjust shares of Republicans and Independents
Gallup

……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 28 90
Indep 43 43
Dem 27 6
Total 98 45.31

https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2018/08/31/National-Politics/Polling/question_20686.xml?uuid=UnUesq0MEeiafc0wUE_5Ag
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

According to the National Exit Poll, Trump had 8% of the recorded black vote. But he did much better than that since the NEP, as always, was forced to match a bogus recorded vote inflated for Clinton. Trump’s approval among blacks has risen sharply since the election (black unemployment is at an all-time low).

Trump
 Non-black
Approval
Black 0.440 0.460 0.480 0.500
Approval Trump
Total
Approval
0.40 0.435 0.453 0.470 0.488
0.38 0.433 0.450 0.468 0.486
0.36 0.430 0.448 0.466 0.483
0.34 0.428 0.446 0.463 0.481
0.03 0.391 0.408 0.426 0.444

How does Trump’s approval among blacks translate to the popular vote?

Assume
1) 2016 National Exit poll white, latino, asian recorded vote shares. Note: Trump’s true shares were likely understated to force a match to the bogus recorded vote.
2) 2016 Census Race percentage breakdown
3) Trump’s vote share among blacks is equal to 36%.

Trump wins by 9 million votes.

National Exit Poll (adjusted to match recorded vote)
Race Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 71% 37% 57% 6%
Black 12% 89% 8% 3%
Latin 11% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 4% 65% 27% 8%
Other 2% 56% 36% 8%
Total 100% 47.93% 46.31% 5.76%

NEP/RACE
Census Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 73.30% 36.7% 56.8% 6.5%
Black 12.45% 61% 36% 3%
Latin 9.22% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 3.67% 65% 27% 8%
Other 1.36% 56% 36% 8%
Total 138.2 60.42 69.39 8.41
Share 100% 43.71% 50.20% 6.08%

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1200a1TrumpandtheMuellerInvestigation.pdf https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415

Census Table 4b. Reported Voting and Registration, by Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin, for States: November 2016
2016 Presidential Election Model

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Posted by on August 16, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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