Why Trump has a higher approval rating than the MSM polls

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Why Trump has a higher approval rating than the MSM polls

09 Sep

Richard Charnin
Sept. 11, 2018

Sept. 11 RCP average 40.6%; Rasmussen 47%
Sept. 22: RCP average 42.2%; Rasmussen 49%
Oct. 4: RCP average 43.5%; Rasmussen 51%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Why the discrepancy with Rasmussen?
1) Democrat Party ID overweighted (6-7% over Repub)
2) Trump’s estimated true approval (90% Repub, 43% Independent) reduced to 78-84% and 35-38%.

Calculate adjusted Trump approval based on
1) PollID = pollster Party ID*pollster approval
2) Adj1 = pollster Party ID*adjusted approval
3) GallupID = Gallup Party ID*pollster approval
4) Adj2 = Gallup PartyID*adjusted approval

Rasmussen Oct.4	Gallup ID	Approval
Rep	28%	92%
Dem	27%	9%
Ind/Other	45%	51%
Total	100%	51.1%

Trump Sept. 11 Approval
Reuters/Ipsos	Party ID	Approval	Adjusted1
Rep	35%	84%	90%
Dem	40%	9%	9%
Ind/Other	25%	38%	430%
Total	100%	42.5%	45.9%
	Actual	43.0%
Reuters
Gallup/adjusted	Gallup ID	Approval	Adjusted2
Rep	28%	84%	90%
Dem	27%	9%	9%
Ind/Other	45%	38%	43%
Total	100%	43.1%	47.0%



Washington Post	Party ID	Approval	Adjusted1
Rep	25%	78%	90%
Dem	33%	6%	6%
Ind/Other	37%	35%	43%
Total	95%	34.4%	40.4%
	Actual	38%

Gallup/adjusted	Gallup ID	Approval	Adjusted2
Rep	28%	78%	90%
Dem	27%	6%	6%
Ind/Other	45%	35%	43%
Total	100%	39.2%	46.2%
	Actual	40%


CNN	Party ID	Approval	Adjusted1
Rep	25%	83%	90%
Dem	31%	6%	6%
Ind/Other	44%	29%	43%
Total	100%	35.4%	43.3%
	Actual	37%

Gallup/adjusted	Gallup ID	Approval	Adjusted2
Rep	28%	83%	90%
Dem	27%	6%	6%
Ind/Other	45%	29%	43%
Total	100%	37.9%	46.2%



Quinnipiac	Party ID	Approval	Adjusted1
Rep	25%	84%	90%
Dem	34%	4%	4%
Ind/Other	41%	36%	43%
Total	100%	37.1%	41.5%
	Actual	38%

Gallup/adjusted	Gallup ID	Approval	Adjusted2
Rep	28%	84%	90%
Dem	27%	4%	4%
Ind/Other	45%	36%	43%
Total	100%	40.8%	45.6%

Total Sept.22	Actual	Poll PartyID	Adjusted1	Gallup PartyID	Adjusted2
Reuters	42.0%	42.5%	45.9%	43.1%	47.0%
WaPo	38.0%	34.4%	40.4%	39.2%	46.2%
CNN	37.0%	35.4%	43.3%	37.9%	46.2%
Quinnipiac	38.0%	37.1%	41.5%	40.8%	45.6%
AVG	38.8%	37.4%	42.8%	40.2%	46.2%