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Why Trump has a higher approval rating than the MSM polls

09 Sep

Richard Charnin
Sept. 11, 2018

Sept. 11 RCP average 40.6%; Rasmussen 47%
Sept. 22:  RCP average 42.2%; Rasmussen 49%
Oct. 4:  RCP average 43.5%; Rasmussen 51%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Why the discrepancy with Rasmussen?
1) Democrat Party ID overweighted (6-7% over Repub)
2) Trump’s estimated true approval (90% Repub, 43% Independent) reduced to 78-84% and 35-38%.

Calculate adjusted Trump approval based on
1) PollID = pollster Party ID*pollster approval
2) Adj1 = pollster Party ID*adjusted approval
3) GallupID = Gallup Party ID*pollster approval
4) Adj2 = Gallup PartyID*adjusted approval

 

Rasmussen Oct.4 Gallup ID Approval
Rep 28% 92%
Dem 27% 9%
Ind/Other 45% 51%
Total 100% 51.1%
Trump Sept. 11 Approval
Reuters/Ipsos  Party ID Approval Adjusted1
Rep 35% 84% 90%
Dem 40% 9% 9%
Ind/Other 25% 38% 430%
Total 100% 42.5% 45.9%
Actual 43.0%
Reuters
Gallup/adjusted Gallup ID Approval Adjusted2
Rep 28% 84% 90%
Dem 27% 9% 9%
Ind/Other 45% 38% 43%
Total 100% 43.1% 47.0%
Washington Post Party ID Approval Adjusted1
Rep 25% 78% 90%
Dem 33% 6% 6%
Ind/Other 37% 35% 43%
Total 95% 34.4% 40.4%
Actual 38%
Gallup/adjusted Gallup ID Approval Adjusted2
Rep 28% 78% 90%
Dem 27% 6% 6%
Ind/Other 45% 35% 43%
Total 100% 39.2% 46.17%
Actual 40%
CNN Party ID Approval Adjusted1
Rep 25% 83% 90%
Dem 31% 6% 6%
Ind/Other 44% 29% 43%
Total 100% 35.4% 43.3%
Actual 37%
Gallup/adjusted Gallup ID Approval Adjusted2
Rep 28% 83% 90%
Dem 27% 6% 6%
Ind/Other 45% 29% 43%
Total 100% 37.9% 46.17%
Quinnipiac Party ID Approval Adjusted1
Rep 25% 84% 90%
Dem 34% 4% 4%
Ind/Other 41% 36% 43%
Total 100% 37.1% 41.5%
Actual 38%
Gallup/adjusted Gallup ID Approval Adjusted2
Rep 28% 84% 90%
Dem 27% 4% 4%
Ind/Other 45% 36% 43%
Total 100% 40.8% 45.63%
Total Sept.22 Actual Poll PartyID Adjusted1 Gallup PartyID Adjusted2
Reuters 42.0% 42.5% 45.9% 43.1% 47.0%
WaPo 38.0% 34.4% 40.4% 39.2% 46.2%
CNN 37.0% 35.4% 43.3% 37.9% 46.2%
Quinnipiac 38.0% 37.1% 41.5% 40.8% 45.6%
AVG 38.8% 37.4% 42.8% 40.2% 46.2%
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Posted by on September 9, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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