Florida Governor Pre-election Polls

Richard Charnin
Sept. 14, 2018

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According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Gillum leads DeSantis by 3%. DeSantis has just 52% of whites (implausible), 2% of blacks (implausible) and 56% of Latinos/others. Let’s recalculate using plausible vote shares.

Rasmussen has Gillum ahead by 48-42%. DeSantis has just 29% of Independents and 46% of whites?  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

But first consider the 2016 FL presidential election. According to the FL exit poll, Trump had 64% of whites, 8% of blacks and 35% of Latinos. He had 89% of Republicans, 8% of Democrats and 47% of Independents.

Florida Exit Poll (match to recorded vote)

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/florida/president

Party ID	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein
Dem	32%	90%	8%	0%	1%
Rep	33%	8%	89%	3%	0%
Ind/oth	34%	43%	47%	3%	1%
Match	99%	46.1%	47.9%	2.0%	0.7%
Reported		47.8%	49.0%	2.2%	0.7%
Votes	9,420	4,505	4,618	207	64

 

Race	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
White	62%	32%	64%	4%
Black	14%	84%	8%	8%
Latino	18%	62%	35%	3%
Asian	2%	58%	36%	6%
Other	4%	58%	36%	6%
Calc	100.0%	46.2%	49.3%	4.5%

Quinnipiac- 2018 Fl Gov

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2565

FLORIDA	Quinnipiac			What If
PartyID	Pct	DeSantis	Gillum	DeSantis	Gillum
Dem	31%	3%	93%	6%	93%
Rep	35%	92%	6%	92%	6%
Ind/Other	34%	42%	55%	47%	48%
Total	100%	47.4%	49.6%	50.0%	47.3%
				What If
Race	Pct	DeSantis	Gillum	DeSantis	Gillum
White	67%	52%	45%	58%	39%
Black	14%	2%	93%	6%	93%
Lat/oth	19%	56%	43%	56%	43%
Total	100%	45.8%	51.3%	50.3%	47.3%

Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2018/crosstabs_toplines/public_crosstabs_election_2018_florida_governor_september_10_11_2018

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2018/florida/election_2018_florida_governor

	Rasmussen			What if
PartyID	Pct	DeSantis	Gillum	DeSantis	Gillum
Dem	31%	14%	82%	10%	90%
Rep	35%	80%	13%	90%	10%
Ind/Other	34%	29%	54%	47%	53%
Total	100%	42.2%	48.3%	50.6%	49.4%
				What if
Race	Pct	DeSantis	Gillum	DeSantis	Gillum
White	67%	46%	45%	55%	45%
Black	14%	24%	75%	20%	80%
Lat/oth	19%	48%	37%	55%	45%
Total	100%	43.3%	47.7%	50.1%	49.9%