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Close analysis of inflated Democratic MSM Generic polls indicates the Republicans will win the House

11 Oct

Richard Charnin
Oct.11, 2018

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On Oct. 11, 2018,  the Dems are leading by 49-40% in 7 Real Clear Politics (RCP) MSM Generic polls. Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP  have the Dems leading 45-44%. Which is closer to the truth?

It’s all about voter turnout. Assume the base case: 1) the Democrats and Republicans (after Kavanaugh) are equally motivated to turnout (40% of registered voters), 2)   Gallup voter affiliation Party ID (28D-27R-45I) closely reflects the electorate and 3) there is an equal split in vote shares of independents (50-50%) and party loyalty (90-10%). The  Generic 2-party vote is Dem 50.4%- Repub 49.6%.

In the last three elections, the Dems and Repubs were virtually tied in the Generic ballot and RCP poll average.  The Repubs won the House in all three by a 241-194 average.

Consider various voter turnout scenarios.  For the Dems to win by 9% as the 7-poll RCP average indicates, there would have to be 56% Dem and 40% Repub turnout. Not likely.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1619968863

 

 Scenario I Party-ID Turnout/ Reg Voters Turnout Votes (000) Repub Dem
Rep 27% 40% 17020 90% 10%
Dem 28% 40% 17651 10% 90%
Ind 45% 40% 28367 50% 50%
Total 100% 40% 49.60% 50.40%
Votes 63,038 31,267 31,771
Various Turnout scenarios
Rep Ind Dem Total Repub Dem
40% 40% 40% 40.0% 49.60% 50.40%
40% 40% 41% 40.3% 49.32% 50.68%
40% 40% 42% 40.5% 49.05% 50.95%
40% 40% 43% 40.8% 48.79% 51.21%
40% 40% 44% 41.1% 48.52% 51.48%
40% 40% 45% 41.4% 48.26% 51.74%
Votes 65,166 31,488 33,757
40% 40% 56% 44.3% 45.61% 54.39%
Votes 69,847 31,973 38,126
Generic Poll % RCP Avg % House
Election Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep
2016 46 45.4 48 49.1 194 241
2014 43.2 45.6 45.2 51.4 188 247
2012 47.3 47.5 49.2 48 201 234
Average 45.5 46.2 47.5 49.5 194.3 240.7

What if the Repubs win 53% of Independents, assuming equal 40% registered voter turnout? Then they win the Generic vote by 51-49%.

Scenario II Party-ID Turnout/ Reg Voters Turnout Votes (000) Repub Dem
Rep 27% 40% 17020 90% 10%
Dem 28% 40% 17651 10% 90%
Ind 45% 40% 28367 53% 47%
Total 100% 40.0% 50.95% 49.05%
Votes 63,038 32,118 30,920
Date Sample Dem% Repub% Spread
 RCP 9-poll Average 9/27 – 10/9 48.1 41.2 6.9
Economist/YouGov 10/7 – 10/9 1162 RV 47 41 6
Reuters/Ipsos 10/3 – 10/9 2012 LV 50 38 12
CNN 10/4 – 10/7 739 LV 54 41 13
Emerson 10/1 – 10/4 1000 RV 50 42 8
NPR/PBS/ Marist 10/1 – 10/1 996 RV 48 42 6
Harvard-Harris 9/29 – 9/30 1330 RV 45 37 8
Quinnipiac 9/27 – 9/30 1111 RV 49 42 7
7-poll Average 49.0 40.4 8.6
Rasmussen Reports 9/30 – 10/4 2500 LV 45 45 0
IBD/TIPP 9/27 – 10/3 846 RV 45 43 2
Average 45.0 44.0 1.0
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Posted by on October 11, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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