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Arizona CBS senate poll: more anomalies

31 Oct

Richard Charnin
10/31/2018

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The CBS News 2018 Battleground Tracker shows Sinema (D) leads McSally (R) by 47-44%. But applying AZ party registration ID to the poll shares, Sinema leads by just 46.1-45.2%, a 62% win probability. Assume equal registered voter turnout (AZ1).

Note that the poll shows McSally with just 1% of Democrats and 84% of Republicans. These are implausible shares. Let’s change the shares to 6% and 88%, respectively.

McSally leads by 48.2-46.1% (AZ2), a 76% win probability.

AZ1 Reg Party-ID McSally Sinema
Rep 1288 34.7% 84% 9%
Dem 1151 31.0% 1% 91%
Ind 1272 34.3% 46% 43%
Total 3711 100% 45.2% 46.1%
AZ2 Reg Party-ID McSally Sinema
Rep 1288 34.7% 88% 9%
Dem 1151 31.0% 6% 91%
Ind 1272 34.3% 46% 43%
Total 3711 100% 48.2% 46.1%
Sensitivity Analysis
McSally wins 17 of 20 scenarios (bold)
Sinema has 46.1% in all scenarios
McSally % Dem
McSally % Rep 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
McSally
Total
90% 47.3% 47.9% 48.6% 49.2% 49.8%
88% 46.6% 47.2% 47.9% 48.5% 49.1%
86% 45.9% 46.5% 47.2% 47.8% 48.4%
84% 45.2% 45.9% 46.5% 47.1% 47.7%
McSally Win Probability matrix (3.0% MoE)
1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
90% 66.4% 73.8% 80.2% 85.4% 89.6%
88% 57.3% 65.5% 73.0% 79.5% 84.8%
86% 47.5% 56.3% 64.6% 72.1% 78.7%
84% 37.8% 46.5% 55.2% 63.6% 71.3%
Early ballot counts in AZ counties: 50.1% Rep, 38.5% Dem, 11.5% Other
CBS Poll: go to category 6
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Posted by on October 31, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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