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Arizona Senate Poll Analysis (Cont.)

03 Nov

Richard Charnin
Nov.3, 2018

The latest CNN, NBC, CBS AZ senate polls show Sinema up by 4,6 and 3%. FOX has the race tied at 46%. The FOX internal numbers say otherwise.

McSally leads by 48.7-45.8%. But this is conservative as FOX gives her just 3% of Dems and 85% of Repubs. The assumption is that they split Independents 50-50%.

When will the MSM learn? You can’t fool ALL of the people ALL of the time.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html

https://www.scribd.com/document/392088280/Fox-Arizona-Late-October-Complete-Topline-October-31-Release#from_embed

AZ Party ID McSally Sinema
Rep 50% 85% << low 8%
Dem 40% 3% << low 92%
Ind/Other 10% 50% 50%
Total 100.0% 48.7% 45.8%
11/2 Early voting (000) 1461 ballots 611 Rep (41.8%) 495 Dem (33.9%)
Let’s make these plausible adjustments (in bold) to McSally’s shares. McSally has 51.4%.
AZ Party ID McSally Sinema
Rep 50% 88% 8%
Dem 40% 6% 92%
Ind/Other 10% 50% 50%
Total 100.0% 51.4% 45.8%
Sensitivity Analysis- McSally’s total share from worst case lower left cell (48.7%) to best case upper right (52.2%)
McSally % Rep
McSally 85% 86% 87% 88%
%Dem
8% 50.7% 51.2% 51.7% 52.2%
7% 50.3% 50.8% 51.3% 51.8%
6% 49.9% 50.4% 50.9% 51.4%
5% 49.5% 50.0% 50.5% 51.0%
4% 49.1% 49.6% 50.1% 50.6%
3% 48.7% 49.2% 49.7% 50.2%
Note: The AZ 2016 final exit poll Party ID differs from the FOX poll. But the HRC and DJT total vote shares nearly match.
AZ 2016 Party ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 28.0% 89.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Rep 32.0% 7.0% 88.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Ind 40.0% 44.0% 47.0% 5.0% 2.0%
Total 100.0% 44.8% 48.9% 3.8% 0.80%
Votes 2,573 1,152 1,259 98 21
Margin 107 4.2%
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Posted by on November 3, 2018 in 2018 Elections, Uncategorized

 

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