2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud

11 Nov

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2018


According to Real Clear Politics, there was a 203D-194R split on Election Day. There were 38 tossups. The Dems lead 235-199 with the NC-9 race disputed. The GOP won the race by 50.8-48.6% (4000+ votes) on Sept.10, 2019

The probability that the Dems would win 32 of 37 tossups is
P= 1 in 315,300 = binomdist (32, 37, 0.5, false)

Of the 38 tossups, 33 were  Repub-held. We would normally expect a tossup split of 19 Dems and 19 Repubs which would result in a 222D-213R House.

The Democrats led in 203 (51.1%) of 397 seats. They won 32 (86.4%) of the remaining 37 tossups. 

Of the 15 seats which leaned to the  Dems, 11 were Repub-held. Assuming a 19D-19R tossup split, the Repubs needed 5 of the 15 to win the House (218=194+19+5).

The recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote. There are vote miscounts in every election, especially in close races within the MoE.

Given a 203D-194R split on Election Day, the following  table displays Democrat win probabilities.

X= Dem tossup win Total Dem seats Prob (X) 1 in
12 215 1.35% 74.2
13 216 2.59% 38.6
14 217 4.44% 22.5
15 218 6.81% 14.7
16 219 9.37% 10.7
17 220 11.57% 8.6
18 221 12.86% 7.8
19 222 12.86% 7.8
20 223 11.57% 8.6
21 224 9.37% 10.7
22 225 6.81% 14.7
23 226 4.44% 22.5
24 227 2.59% 39
25 228 1.35% 74
26 229 0.62% 161
27 230 0.25% 395
28 231 0.09% 1,105
29 232 0.03% 3,560
30 233 0.01% 13,349
31 234 0.017% 59,119
32 235 0.0003% 315,301



AZ Senate vs Governor a major discrepancy
Dems needed a 5.6% popular vote margin to win the House
17 House races: what-if?
Repub CA House races too close to call flipped to Dems
Did the GOP actually win the House?
2018 House probability analysis indicates fraud
GOP House: Red wave?
What is the probability Dems will win the House?
Arizona CBS Senate Poll More Anomalies
Generic vote forecast model vs RCP average (10-29)
Inflated Democratic generic polls indicates Republicans will win the House
GOP wins Texas-SD-19 for first time in-139-years
Florida Governor Polling Analysis
Trump has a higher approval rating than MSM polls
Rasmussen vs. WaPo: Trump approval

The MSM, CNN and LA Times admitted the GOP could keep the House in a Red Tsunami


Posted by on November 11, 2018 in 2018 Elections



5 responses to “2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud

  1. Mary

    November 15, 2018 at 11:31 am

    So how do you explain the shift you now claim since summer 2016 from red to blue? Are you now claiming that the races you used to prove the red shift in your earlier books are null-void-invalid?

    Please do explain how some shadow government or sinister force can steal elections for republicans up-to and including 2012 (where your True Vote model claims larger Obama win) and now suddenly claiming republicans are the victims.

    • Richard Charnin

      November 15, 2018 at 5:23 pm

      No blue shift. Fraud. HRC and Soros took control of the Dems. Stole the primary from Bernie. How do you explain that? Need I say more? My prior 2016 analysis is valid. The GOP cheated in 2000 and 2004. Now it’s the Dems turn. How do you explain Broward County? Things change. Think out of the box. I bet you are a died-in the wool Dem- come hell or high water. I gave you the links to all of my posts from 2000. I did the math and got the last 3 presidential elections EV exactly right. My track record stands for itself. I suggest you go through all of my posts in detail. It’s all there. Nothing more for me to say. I have been posting and writing election fraud books since 2001. Read them. Get educated.

  2. Blocks Of (@blockofwoods)

    November 15, 2018 at 5:46 pm

    Interesting analysis, after reading your prior blog GOP House forecast. The Question how did they manage to overtake the GOP voters by such a margin when reported turn out for the GOP was well above the normal midterms. I can only think of 2 methods voter fraud (stuffed, missing, late ballots) or willful voter swaps (correcting the ballot or software flipping) as in AZ case Sinema won, but the GOP Gov won by 325,000, yet 325,000 voted Cinema and not McSally?

  3. Richard Charnin

    November 21, 2018 at 5:55 pm

    Mary: 1) Soros has an interest in 16 states voting machines which would be fixed for HRC , 2) HRC tried to steal the presidential just like she stole the primary from Bernie, but you are apparently unaware of that fact. 3) I am not a Scott Walker fan. You want me to explain how he lost in 2018? I did not analyze the 2018 WI Gov race. I did not declare him to be a victim of election fraud. Your tone is unbecoming; your knowledge is limited. Are you trolling me? It sure seems that way. I have 18 years experience in spotting trolls.



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