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2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud

11 Nov

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2018

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2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud

According to Real Clear Politics, there was  a 203D-194R split on Election Day. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

The Dems won 32 of 38 of tossup elections.  The probability is P= 1 in 99,569.
P = binomdist (32, 38, 0.5, false) = 0.001%  (1 in 99,569)

The Democrats led in 203 (51.1%) of 397 seats. They won 32 (84.2%) of the remaining 38 tossups. Note that 51.1% of 38= 19.4. 

Of the 38 tossups, 33 were  Repub-held. We would normally expect an even tossup split: 19 Dems and 19 Repubs. That would result in a 222D-213R House. 

Of the 15 seats which leaned to the  Dems, 11 were Repub-held. Assuming a 19D-19R tossup split, the Repubs needed 5 of the 15 to win the House (218=194+19+5).

The recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote. There are vote miscounts in every election, especially in close races within the MoE.

Given 203D-194R on Election Day, the following  table displays Democrat win probabilities assuming a 50/50 and  50.5D-49.5R split in the 38 tossups.

50.0D-50.0R 50.5D-49.5R
X=Dem seats Prob (X) 1 in Prob (X) 1 in
215 1.0% 101 0.9% 117
216 2.0% 50 1.7% 57
217 3.5% 28 3.2% 31
218 5.6% 18 5.2% 19
219 8.1% 12 7.6% 13
220 10.5% 9.6 10.0% 10
221 12.2% 8.2 12.0% 8.4
222 expected 12.9% 7.8 12.8% 7.8
223 12.2% 8.2 12.4% 8.0
224 10.5% 10 10.9% 9.2
225 8.1% 12 8.6% 11.7
226 5.6% 18 6.1% 16.4
227 3.5% 28 3.9% 25
228 2.0% 51 2.2% 45
229 1.0% 102 1.1% 88
230 0.4% 228 0.5% 195
231 0.2% 581 0.2% 486
232 0.1% 1,686 0.1% 1,383
233 0.0178% 5,621 0.021% 4,519
234 0.0046% 21,781 0.0058% 17,165
235 actual 0.0010% 99,569 0.0013% 76,918
236 0.0002% 547,629 0.0001% 414,672
237 0.00003% 3,723,876 0.000036% 2,763,934
238 0.000003% 32,583,915 0.000004% 23,705,526

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTvZppVule4a_07xPErlSU-yVsOC-otyIakWvE9_9CQp5K55Vkqcefjsr0J9_EyRk5TyTWLHTccQeKR/pubchart?oid=1371017998&format=interactive

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=1032811684

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/house/
https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/house/

The MSM, CNN and LA Times admitted the GOP could keep the House in a Red Tsunami
http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/msm-red-tsunami/?fbclid=IwAR0C43VxE9xy7HPybwzd_cIBKdcTjDXh5f-UGB9-zD7icp-aGMIB9DTo_Dk

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4 Comments

Posted by on November 11, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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4 responses to “2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud

  1. Mary

    November 15, 2018 at 11:31 am

    So how do you explain the shift you now claim since summer 2016 from red to blue? Are you now claiming that the races you used to prove the red shift in your earlier books are null-void-invalid?

    Please do explain how some shadow government or sinister force can steal elections for republicans up-to and including 2012 (where your True Vote model claims larger Obama win) and now suddenly claiming republicans are the victims.

     
    • Richard Charnin

      November 15, 2018 at 5:23 pm

      No blue shift. Fraud. HRC and Soros took control of the Dems. Stole the primary from Bernie. How do you explain that? Need I say more? My prior 2016 analysis is valid. The GOP cheated in 2000 and 2004. Now it’s the Dems turn. How do you explain Broward County? Things change. Think out of the box. I bet you are a died-in the wool Dem- come hell or high water. I gave you the links to all of my posts from 2000. I did the math and got the last 3 presidential elections EV exactly right. My track record stands for itself. I suggest you go through all of my posts in detail. It’s all there. Nothing more for me to say. I have been posting and writing election fraud books since 2001. Read them. Get educated.

       
  2. Blocks Of (@blockofwoods)

    November 15, 2018 at 5:46 pm

    Interesting analysis, after reading your prior blog GOP House forecast. The Question how did they manage to overtake the GOP voters by such a margin when reported turn out for the GOP was well above the normal midterms. I can only think of 2 methods voter fraud (stuffed, missing, late ballots) or willful voter swaps (correcting the ballot or software flipping) as in AZ case Sinema won, but the GOP Gov won by 325,000, yet 325,000 voted Cinema and not McSally?

     

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