Repub California House races too close to call flipped to the Dems

21 Nov

Richard Charnin
Nov. 21, 2018


The Repubs led by 4% in each of 4 districts which flipped to the Dems. The win probability was 85% in each of the districts (4.0% margin of error).

The Dems led by 203-194 seats on Election Day with 38 tossups. On Nov. 21, the Dems won the House by 235-200, winning 32 of 38 tossups – a 1 in 100,000 probability. An even 19-19 split of the  tossups would have resulted in a 222-213 Dem win. Then the GOP  would need just five additional seats to win the House.

……………Dem Rep ….. Dem Rep Margin
CA10……. 47 45  -2…… 50.9 49.1  -1.8
CA25……. 44 48   4…… 51.7 48.3  -3.4

CA39……. 48 52   4…… 50.5 49.5  -1.0
Cisneros vs. Kim (R) vote change from Election Day to 11/16

CA45……. 46 50   4…… 50.8 49.2  -1.6
CA48……. 44 48   4…… 52.0 48.0  -4.0 Rohrabacher (R) lost after 30 years in Congress

The Democrats had 300,000 more votes in Orange County Congressional races than for Democrat governor Gavin Newsom.

Tip of the iceberg?
“Prosecutors have charged nine people with a dozen felony counts for allegedly offering money and cigarettes to homeless people on Skid Row in exchange for false and forged signatures on ballot petitions and voter registration forms, the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office announced today”.

Click to access 112018_Nine_Charged_in_Large_Scale_Voter_Fraud_Scheme_on_Skid_Row.pdf


Posted by on November 21, 2018 in 2018 Elections


Tags: ,

3 responses to “Repub California House races too close to call flipped to the Dems

  1. Tito

    November 21, 2018 at 6:09 pm

    I really appreciate the work you do, sir. And the fact that you do so without bias for any particular political party; that is refreshing.

    Thank you.

  2. Bret Johns

    November 30, 2018 at 9:12 pm

    The 48th Congressional District results Rouda (D) 53.5%, Rohrabacher (R) 46.5%, seems to require closer scrutiny given party affiliation in the district. Dem. 29.8%, Rep. 38.3%, NP 27.3%, Others 4.5%. Turnout rate was 74%! Given equal 92%-8% shares, Rouda had to get 72.5% of the NP/others to have a 7% margin. How could that be?

    • Richard Charnin

      December 1, 2018 at 7:09 am

      Likely Fraud. What was Rep,Dem,Other Turnout?


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