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2018 House Election: Dems needed a 5.6% popular vote margin to win the House

20 Jan

Richard Charnin
Jan. 20, 2019

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Nate Silver calculated that the Dems needed a 5.6% popular vote margin to win the House (218-217). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

The Dems won by 8% (53.1-45.1%, 8.9 million recorded votes) a 235-200 seat margin. 

But the Dems won 32 of 38 tossups- a 1 in 100,000 probability, an indicator of fraud. Thirty-three of the 38 tossups were held by Repubs. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2018/11/11/2018-house-probability-analysis-indicates-fraud/

Rasmussen was the only pollster to project a Repub win: 46-45%.  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

The National Generic Exit Poll was forced to closely match the recorded vote. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=210218497

2018 NEP Party ID Republicans Democrats Other
Republicans 33% 94% 6% 0
Democrats 37% 4% 95% 1%
Independents 30% 42% 54% 4%
Calc share 100% 45.10% 53.33% 1.57%
Calc vote 111,478,885 50,276,977 59,451,689 1,750,218
Popular vote 111,835,736 50,449,312 59,379,804 2,006,620
Popular share 100% 45.10% 53.10% 1.80%
House 201 234

Assuming Silver’s analysis,  a Dem popular vote margin under 5.6% would result in the Repubs winning the House. For example, if the Repubs had 47% of Independents, keeping other NEP percentages constant, the  Dems would have a 51.8-46.6% win (5.2% margin, 5.6 million votes) but the Repubs would win the House.

Generic Party-ID Rep Dem Other
Rep 33% 94% 6% 0%
Dem 37% 4% 95% 1%
Ind  30% 47% 49% 4%
Share 46.60% 51.83% 1.57%
Votes 51,408 57,177 1,732

A 1% gain/loss in margin results in a gain/loss of approximately 7 seats =17/2.6. (17=235-218; 2.6= 8.2-5.6)

Dem Margin Dem Seats
8.23% 235
7.36% 230
6.49% 225
5.63% 218
4.78% 215
3.93% 210
3.09% 205

 

 

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Posted by on January 20, 2019 in 2018 Elections

 

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