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A VERY preliminary 2020 ELECTION MODEL forecast

27 Apr

Richard Charnin
April 27, 2019

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This is a VERY preliminary 2020 ELECTION MODEL forecast. It is based on recorded and true vote assumptions of returning 2016 voters and forecast vote shares. The TRUE VOTE is never equal to the RECORDED VOTE

The model does not currently forecast the Electoral vote. I forecast the EV exactly in each of the last 3 elections. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/?fbclid=IwAR2jXWG8Uymn3hbGjCMN5FqGa6vn3Btg8ViKTv_7Mn-TLIPnnTuwcCjGJJg

VIEW a SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS BASED ON INCREMENTAL TRUMP VOTE SHARES OF RETURNING TRUMP AND CLINTON VOTERS.   https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit?fbclid=IwAR0ejmGXPoEej6nErcJ_eFK24ErumOM6Kgsanf8wA_J88kJuACkLkUp4sDA#gid=0

RECORDED VOTE FORECAST
2016  Recorded Turnout Mix DEM Trump Other
Clinton 59.94 44.40% 86% 9% 5%
Trump 57.36 42.49% 6% 90% 4%
Other 6.93 5.13% 45% 45% 10%
DNV (new) 10.77 7.98% 40% 45% 15%
Total 135.00 Recorded 46.24% 48.13% 5.63%
Vote (mil) 62.42 64.98 7.60
Margin 2.56
TRUE VOTE FORECAST
2016  True Turnout Mix DEM Trump Other
Clinton 54.66 40.49% 84% 11% 5%
Trump 60.87 45.09% 6% 92% 2%
Other 8.70 6.44% 40% 40% 20%
DNV (new) 10.77 7.98% 40% 45% 15%
Total 135.00 True Vote share 42.48% 52.10% 5.41%
True Vote 57.35 70.34 7.31
Margin 12.99
 
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Posted by on April 27, 2019 in Uncategorized

 

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