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Quinnipiac vs. Rasmussen: Trump vs. Biden approval ratings and national poll

12 Jun

Richard Charnin
June 14, 2019

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It is way too early to consider presidential polls, but this analysis shows that the Quinnipiac Univ. poll of Biden  leading Trump by 13% is implausible. We consider the 2016 race demographic and party-ID (Census, Gallup, Quinnipiac).

Quinnipiac polled Registered Voters. Rasmussen polled Likely Voters.

Trump’s approval ratings match his projected vote shares.
Rasmussen (LV): Trump leads 51-47%; Census (Race) and Gallup (party ID)
Quinnipiac (RV): Biden leads 53-40%; Census (Race) and Quinnipiac (party ID)

Rasmussen: Trump leads whites by 61-37%.
Quinnipiac: Trump leads whites by just 47-46%.
NEP: Trump won whites by 57-37% in 2016 (forced to match recorded).

Rasmussen: Trump leads Independents by 51-46%.
Quinnipiac: Biden leads by 56-28%.
NEP: Trump won Independents by 46-42% in 2016 (forced to match recorded).
He had least 48% of independents.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html?utm_campaign=distroscale&utm_medium=video-player&utm_source=polls

Rasmussen Sample (LV) Census Biden Trump
White 1100 73.3% 37% 61%
Black 186 12.4% 87% 12%
Hispanic,Other 215 14.3% 63% 33%
Total 1500 100.0% 46.9% 50.9%
Rasmussen Gallup
Dem 465 31% 88% 11%
Rep 450 30% 6% 93%
Ind 565 39% 46% 51%
Total 1500 100.0% 47.0% 51.2%
Quinnipiac  Sample (RV) Party-ID Biden Trump
Dem-actual 503 41.4% 95% 3%
Rep-est 470 38.7% 6% 91%
Ind-est 241 19.8% 56% 28%
Total – actual 1214 100.0% 52.8% 42.0%
Quinnipiac Census
White 890 73.3% 46% 47%
Black 151 12.4% 85% 12%
Hispanic,Other 174 14.3% 58% 33%
Total 1214 100.0% 52.6% 40.7%

This is why you should never trust MSM pollsters.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html?utm_campaign=distroscale&utm_medium=video-player&utm_source=polls

Poll Date Sample Approve Disapprove Spread
MSM
Reuters/Ipsos 6/10 – 6/11 983 RV 41 58 -17
Economist/YouGov 6/9 – 6/11 1107 RV 45 52 -7
Quinnipiac 6/6 – 6/10 1214 RV 42 53 -11
Politico/Morning Consult 6/7 – 6/9 1991 RV 41 56 -15
The Hill/HarrisX 6/7 – 6/8 1001 RV 45 55 -10
NPR/PBS/Marist 5/31 – 6/4 783 RV 43 49 -6
IBD/TIPP 5/30 – 6/7 906 A 42 52 -10
CNN 5/28-5/31 902 RV 40 53 -13
Average 42.57 52.86 -10.29
Non-MSM
Rasmussen Reports 6/11 – 6/13 1500 LV 51 47 4
Harvard-Harris 5/29 – 5/30 1295 RV 48 52 -4
Zogby Analytics 5/2-5/9 852 LV 51 48 3
Average 50.00 49.00 1.00

In the CNN sample, 34% described themselves as Democrats, 27% as Republicans, 39% as Independents or members of another party;   86% of Republicans, 7% of Democrats and 44% of Independents approve of Trump. Total approval is 42.8%.

Trump approval is calculated for independent pollsters using Gallup Party ID: Dem 31%, Ind 38%, Rep 30%. Estimated Trump  approval is 93% Repub, 12% Dem and 46% Independent. Total approval is 49.6%.

Party-ID Gallup Trump CNN Trump
Dem 31% 12% 34% 7%
Rep 30% 93% 27% 86%
Ind 38% 46% 39% 44%
Total Approval 100% 49.6% 100% 42.8%

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/447972-biden-leads-trump-by-landslide-proportions-in-new-national-poll

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

 
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Posted by on June 12, 2019 in Uncategorized

 

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