Do the math: Epstein’s 6.5 million Google vote flip from Trump to Clinton

13 Sep

Richard Charnin
Sept. 13, 2019


This analysis calculates the percent of undecided voters required to match Dr. Epstein’s 6.5 million average vote flip estimate from Trump to Clinton. Epstein calculated that based on Google manipulation of search algorithms,  2.6-10.4 million undecided voters flipped from Trump to Clinton.

Clinton won the recorded vote by 48.25-46.17%,  a 2.83 million vote margin. According to the 2016 National Exit Poll (which is always forced to match the recorded vote) 60% of voters decided before Sept. 1. 
Clinton won the pre-Sept.1 deciders by 52-45%. 
Trump won the 40% who decided after Sept.1 by 47.9-42.6%. 

To match the flip, we adjust the National Exit Poll “When Decided” cross tab. Trump needed 57% of post-Sept.1 deciders and 47% of pre-Sept.1 deciders. The result: a 10.3 million vote margin (69.5-59.2) and 51.0-43.4% split.

Included in the spreadsheet is a vote share/margin sensitivity analysis matrix ranging over 5 pre-Sept.1 and 5 post-Sept.1 vote share increments (25 scenarios).

It is important  to note that the analysis is based strictly on Epstein’s study. It does not include the following factors: illegal and disenfranchised voters and malicious voting machine software.

Note that the challenger typically gets at least 75% of the undecided vote, especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Clinton was the de-facto incumbent after serving as Secretary of State under Obama.

NEP Decided Voted Clinton Trump Other
Post Sept 1 40% 42.62% 47.92% 9.46%
Pre Sept 1 60% 52% 45% 3%
Total 100% 48.25% 46.17% 5.58%
136,216,677 65,719,398 62,889,892 7,607,387
Adjusted Voted Clinton Trump Other
Post Sept 1 40% 33.54% 57.00% 9.46%
Pre Sept 1 60% 50.00% 47.00% 3.00%
Total 100% 43.42% 51.00% 5.58%
136,216,677 59,138,785 69,470,505 7,607,387


Leave a comment

Posted by on September 13, 2019 in Uncategorized


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: