Sept. 13, 2019
This analysis calculates the percent of undecided voters required to match Dr. Epstein’s 6.5 million average vote flip estimate from Trump to Clinton. Epstein calculated that based on Google manipulation of search algorithms, 2.6-10.4 million undecided voters flipped from Trump to Clinton.
Clinton won the recorded vote by 48.25-46.17%, a 2.83 million vote margin. According to the 2016 National Exit Poll (which is always forced to match the recorded vote) 60% of voters decided before Sept. 1.
Clinton won the pre-Sept.1 deciders by 52-45%.
Trump won the 40% who decided after Sept.1 by 47.9-42.6%.
To match the flip, we adjust the National Exit Poll “When Decided” cross tab. Trump needed 57% of post-Sept.1 deciders and 47% of pre-Sept.1 deciders. The result: a 10.3 million vote margin (69.5-59.2) and 51.0-43.4% split.
Included in the spreadsheet is a vote share/margin sensitivity analysis matrix ranging over 5 pre-Sept.1 and 5 post-Sept.1 vote share increments (25 scenarios).
It is important to note that the analysis is based strictly on Epstein’s study. It does not include the following factors: illegal and disenfranchised voters and malicious voting machine software.
Note that the challenger typically gets at least 75% of the undecided vote, especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Clinton was the de-facto incumbent after serving as Secretary of State under Obama.
|Post Sept 1||40%||42.62%||47.92%||9.46%|
|Pre Sept 1||60%||52%||45%||3%|
|Post Sept 1||40%||33.54%||57.00%||9.46%|
|Pre Sept 1||60%||50.00%||47.00%||3.00%|