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2016 Election Model Update

03 Oct

2016 Election Model Update

Richard Charnin
Oct. 2, 2019

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The 2016 Forecast Model has been enhanced to include Gallup 2016 state party I, voter turnout and vote share adjustments.

The Model uses 4 Party-ID groups:
– Gallup 2016 State voter affiliation with leaners
– Pre-election (9 poll average)
– Gallup 2016 National voter affiliation
– National Exit Poll (matched to recorded vote)

View the sensitivity of Vote share, Vote margin and Electoral Vote to Trump shares of Republicans and Independents (15 scenarios).

For example, consider the following vote share scenarios:

1) National Exit Poll (matched to recorded vote): 
Trump wins 8% of Dems, 88% of Repubs and 46% of Independents. 
Result: Trump has 224 Electoral votes and loses the popular vote by  2.1 million.

2) Trump wins 8% of Dems, 90% of Repubs and 48% of Independents.
Result: Trump has 321 Electoral votes and wins the popular vote by 1.4 million.

3) Trump wins 8% of Dems, 92% of Repubs and 50% of Independents.
Result: Trump has 356 Electoral votes and wims the popular vote by 4.9 million.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17h3tOueSvQWwYFLwOEg3tCoIFdoB7wnEscsMgSFeDAk/edit#gid=1036175945

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Posted by on October 3, 2019 in Uncategorized

 

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