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2016 National Exit Poll Independents, Undecided voters and Google

09 Oct

Richard Charnin
Oct.9, 2019

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According to the 2016 National Exit Poll, Independents   comprised 31% of the electorate and 40% of voters decided after Sept.1. The NEP indicates that Trump won Independents by 46-42%.

The NEP also indicates that Trump won voters who decided after Sept. 1 by 47.9-42.6%. The presumptive “incumbent” Clinton was unpopular. As the challenger, Trump would expect to capture at least 56% of undecided voters.

The Gallup monthly Voter affiliation survey taken at the time of the election indicated that Independents comprised 41% of the electorate, virtually matching the 40% who decided after Sept.1. It is logical to assume that the majority of undecided voters were Independents. Trump needed 56% of Independents to win by 9 million votes and 356 EV (50.0-43.4%).

According to Dr. Epstein, 2.4-10.6 million undecided voters were flipped by Google’s search engine to favor Clinton. Assume  6.5 million were flipped.

Gallup………. NEP shares
Party-ID …….Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem… 31%… 90.4% 7.7% 0.0% 1.9%
Rep… 28%…. 8.0% 88.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Ind… 41%…. 32.0% 56.0% 6.0% 4.0% < 56% = 46% + 10%
Share 100% 43.4% 50.0% 3.6% 2.2%
Votes 136.2. 59.3. 68.3. 4.9. 3.0
EVote………182..356

Trump won the following states (51 EV) that he lost in the recorded vote:
CO 9, MN 10, ME 4, NH 4, NM 5, NV 6, VA 13

National Exit Poll
When Decided.. Voted Clinton Trump Other
After Sept 1……40%…… 30.6% 60.0% 9.4% < 60% = 48% + 12%
Before Sept 1….60%…… 52.0% 45.0% 3.0%
Vote share…….100%… 43.4% 51.0% 5.6%
Votes…………..136.2…… 59.1…69.5.. 7.6

The NEP is always forced to match the recorded vote. The recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote. Recorded Vote = True Vote + Election Fraud

Sensitivity Analysis

Party ID Dem Rep Ind
Gallup 31.0% 28.0% 41.0%
Base Case Trump% 7.7% 88.0% 56.0%
EVote Clinton 182 Trump 356
Vote share 43.4% 50.0%
Votes 59,275 68,296
Trump % Repubs
Trump 88.0% 89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0%
% Ind Trump
56% 50.0% 50.3% 50.5% 50.8% 51.1%
52% 48.3% 48.6% 48.9% 49.2% 49.5%
50% 47.5% 47.8% 48.1% 48.4% 48.6%
48% 46.7% 47.0% 47.3% 47.5% 47.8%
46% 45.9% 46.2% 46.4% 46.7% 47.0%
Clinton
56% 43.4% 43.1% 42.8% 42.5% 42.3%
52% 45.0% 44.7% 44.5% 44.2% 43.9%
50% 45.8% 45.6% 45.3% 45.0% 44.7%
48% 46.7% 46.4% 46.1% 45.8% 45.5%
46% 47.5% 47.2% 46.9% 46.6% 46.4%
Vote Share Margin
56% 6.6% 7.2% 7.7% 8.3% 8.8%
52% 3.3% 3.9% 4.4% 5.0% 5.6%
50% 1.7% 2.2% 2.8% 3.4% 3.9%
48% 0.0% 0.6% 1.2% 1.7% 2.3%
46% -1.6% -1.0% -0.5% 0.1% 0.6%
Vote Margin (000)
56% 8,948 9,706 10,465 11,224 11,983
52% 4,503 5,262 6,021 6,779 7,538
50% 2,281 3,039 3,798 4,557 5,316
48% 58 817 1,576 2,335 3,094
46% -2,164 -1,405 -646 112 871

When Decided
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17h3tOueSvQWwYFLwOEg3tCoIFdoB7wnEscsMgSFeDAk/edit?fbclid=IwAR2x2qXiBcemeKXGNh6c2FW31-2Flwe2pgn-1IWFGhsjDrpRC2MbLwmDp5s#gid=793126276

Independents
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17h3tOueSvQWwYFLwOEg3tCoIFdoB7wnEscsMgSFeDAk/edit?fbclid=IwAR2x2qXiBcemeKXGNh6c2FW31-2Flwe2pgn-1IWFGhsjDrpRC2MbLwmDp5s#gid=1036175945

 
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Posted by on October 9, 2019 in Uncategorized

 

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