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Trump 2016 Landslide? Do the Math

13 Oct

Richard Charnin
Oct. 13, 2019

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The following analysis indicates how Trump may have won the True Vote by 9-13 million…and the electoral vote with at least 356 EV (he had 306 recorded). He did about 5% better than his recorded 46% share. Is that so hard to believe when you consider what the DNC did to Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primaries?

According to Dr. Epstein, 2.4-10.6 million undecided votes were flipped by Google to Clinton. Gallup Independents (40% of the electorate) are a proxy for the 40% in the NEP who decided after Sept.1.
A 6.5 million flip requires an 11% increase in Trump’s NEP share of Independents from 46% to 57%. As the challenger. Trump would expect at least 57% of undecided Independents since the “incumbent” Clinton was unpopular.
With this one change,Trump wins by 9.4 million votes with 356 EV (50.0-43.1%).
Recorded Gallup Trump Clinton Other
Rep 28% 88.0% 8.0% 4.0%
Dem 32% 8.0% 89.0% 3.0%
Indep 40% 46.0% 42.0% 12.0
Calc 45.6% 47.5% 6.9%
Recorded 46.1% 48.2% 5.7%
136.22 62.8 65.7 7.6
Independents Gallup Trump Clinton Other
Rep 28% 88.0% 8.0% 4.0%
Dem 32% 8.0% 89.0% 3.0%
Indep (adjusted) 40% 57% 31.0% 12.0%
Vote 50.0% 43.1% 5.9%
Check 50.0% 43.1% 5.9%
136.22 68.3 58.9 9.0
When Decided NEP Trump Clinton Other
Before 9/1 60% 47.0% 52.0% 1.0%
After 9/1 (adjusted) 40% 57.0% 30.6% 12.4%
Vote 51.0% 43.0% 6.0%
Check 51.0% 43.0% 6.0%
136.22 69.5 58.6 8.2
Adjustments Total Trump Clinton Other
Recorded 136.22 62.8 65.7 7.6
100% 46.1% 48.2% 5.7%
Illegals -3.0 0.0 -3.0 0,0
Vote Suppression 3.0 0.0 3.0 0.0
Google Vote Flip 0.0 6.5 -6.5 0.0
Adjusted Vote 138.22 69.4 59.2 7.6
100% 52.0% 42.3% 5.7%

DID TRUMP ACTUALLY WIN BY 13 MILLION VOTES? 
“Taken from the “NSA Core Records”
TRUMP: 70,125,263; CLINTON: 57,177,958

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/did-trump-actually-win-by-13-million-votes/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2019/10/09/2016-national-exit-poll-independents-undecided-voters-and-google/

2016 Election Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17h3tOueSvQWwYFLwOEg3tCoIFdoB7wnEscsMgSFeDAk/edit#gid=1036175945

 
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Posted by on October 13, 2019 in Uncategorized

 

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