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Moody’s 2020 presidential election forecast: Trump is the clear favorite.

19 Oct

Richard Charnin
Oct. 19, 2019

This is an analysis of Moody’s 2020 forecast. It consists of three models and assumes 2-party votes: Pocketbook, Stock and Unemployment.

In each model there are three turnout assumptions (Maximum, Average and Minimum). Trump wins if there is average or minimum Democratic turnout. He loses if Democratic turnout is at a maximum level relative to Republicans and Independents.

Compare to the 2016 election. Clinton won the popular recorded vote by 2.86 million  (48.2-46.1%). The 2016 National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote) had Trump winning Independents by 46-42%. The True Vote Model  assumes that Trump had 54% of Independents.

Trump won the TVM by nearly 9 million votes (49.9-43.6%) with 356 EV.  He had 53.4% of the TVM 2-party vote  vs. 51.4% in Moody’s Average Turnout model.

Dem Turnout Max Average Min
Trump 2-party EV 2-party EV 2-party EV
Wtd Average 47.8% 259 51.4% 332 54.9% 387
AL 63.0% 9 65.9% 9 67.8% 9
AK 55.6% 3 60.4% 3 64.1% 3
AZ 53.6% 11 56.0% 11 59.7% 11
AR 56.8% 6 62.0% 6 64.2% 6
CA 36.1% 39.9% 44.1%
CO 45.3% 49.3% 54.8% 9
CT 41.9% 45.8% 51.2% 7
DE 41.8% 45.9% 50.8% 3
DC 6.0% 11.8% 18.9%
FL 50.5% 29 53.4% 29 58.3% 29
GA 52.3% 16 55.2% 16 58.9% 16
HI 35.3% 38.9% 42.3%
ID 61.1% 4 68.0% 4 71.3% 4
IL 40.2% 43.6% 47.1%
IN 56.8% 11 60.0% 11 61.7% 11
IA 51.5% 6 54.5% 6 57.1% 6
KS 55.0% 6 61.6% 6 64.4% 6
KY 61.3% 8 64.9% 8 66.6% 8
LA 57.5% 8 61.4% 8 63.9% 8
ME 42.9% 49.1% 55.5% 4
MD 36.0% 40.6% 45.1%
MA 36.0% 39.1% 44.3%
MI 47.3% 51.0% 16 55.5% 16
MN 45.7% 50.1% 10 53.0% 10
MS 59.8% 6 61.3% 6 63.0% 6
MO 53.3% 10 58.8% 10 62.1% 10
MT 58.9% 3 61.9% 3 64.2% 3
NE 59.1% 5 64.1% 5 67.6% 5
NV 44.4% 49.3% 54.6% 6
NH 46.9% 51.2% 4 58.8% 4
NJ 43.9% 46.8% 51.1% 14
NM 43.7% 47.0% 50.4% 5
NY 39.3% 41.9% 45.7%
NC 50.4% 15 54.0% 15 57.6% 15
ND 61.5% 3 66.7% 3 68.6% 3
OH 51.8% 18 55.2% 18 58.3% 18
OK 62.4% 7 68.9% 7 71.4% 7
OR 41.1% 45.7% 50.4% 7
PA 49.3% 51.8% 20 54.3% 20
RI 40.3% 44.0% 48.2%
SC 56.9% 9 59.3% 9 62.6% 9
SD 58.1% 3 63.7% 3 66.4% 3
TN 60.4% 11 63.8% 11 65.9% 11
TX 56.4% 38 59.0% 38 59.0% 38
UT 57.2% 6 64.3% 6 67.5% 6
VT 32.7% 37.2% 43.6%
VA 46.5% 50.7% 13 54.8% 13
WA 40.6% 44.5% 48.7%
WV 63.9% 5 67.9% 5 72.0% 5
WI 47.8% 51.3% 10 54.9% 10
WY 65.7% 3 72.8% 3 75.8% 3

2016 True Vote Model

Gallup
NEP shares
Votes Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 32.0% 88.4% 9.8% 0.0% 1.8%
Rep 28.0% 6.0% 90.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Ind 40.0% 34.0% (adj) 54.0% (adj) 6.0% 4.0%
Shares 99.20% 43.6% 49.9% 3.5% 2.2%
Votes 135,535 59,526 68,227 4,809 2,973
Margin 8,700 182 EV 356 EV

https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2019/president-election-model.pdf

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=1929995942

 

 
3 Comments

Posted by on October 19, 2019 in Uncategorized

 

3 responses to “Moody’s 2020 presidential election forecast: Trump is the clear favorite.

  1. spearman3004

    October 20, 2019 at 8:08 am

    Too bad if your analysis comes true. You’re making JFK roll over in his grave.

     
    • Richard Charnin

      October 20, 2019 at 3:22 pm

      Is that so? Would JFK have approved of Hillary? The DNC and HRC are causing JFK to roll over in his grave – not Trump. Where were you in 1962?

       
  2. Richard Charnin

    October 21, 2019 at 9:07 am

    I followed JFK from his nomination and wrote Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy. Did you view his Secret Societies speech? A harbinger of the Deep State – like Trump. Of course JFK was elegant, a great speaker and Sorensen was a great speechwriter. JFK would never resort IN PUBLIC to the language Trump uses. But like Trump, he was anti-war, anti-deep state, low taxes – and for detente with Russia. Like Trump, he fought the generals who were all looking to start a war (see Vietnam and Cuba), He communicated back door with Nikita Khrushchev and Castro just like Trump does with Putin and Assad.

     

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