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JFK witness groups: mortality probabilities

07 Nov

Richard Charnin
Nov.7, 2019

Probabilities of unnatural deaths and homicides are calculated based on the Poisson function for the following witness groups : Warren Commission (552),  HSCA (200), Dealey Plaza (692), Simkin JFK Index (656), London Sunday Times Actuary (418).

JFK witness groups unnatural and homicide death probabilities

In 1963-1978, 78 of 122 suspicious deaths were officially ruled unnatural among 1500 JFK-related witnesses: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths = 4.3E-60 = 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion. The probability of 34 homicides = 1.3E-30 = 1 in a million trillion trillion.

There are an estimated one trillion trillion (E+24) stars in the universe.

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected based on mortality rates, therefore approximately 59 unnatural deaths were homicides (34 ruled+12 “accidents”+13 “suicides”).  Of the 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides. Therefore, there were an estimated 85 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. The probability of 85 homicides among 1500 witnesses = 1.7E-106.

Sensitivity Analysis: Probability of  n homicides, N witnesses, T= 15 years, R=0.000084 mortality rate

Expected = N*T*R 1.89 3.78 6.30
Witnesses 1500 3000 5000
Homicides Probability
22 1.62E-16 1.03E-10 6.29E-07
34 ruled 1.28E-30 3.33E-21 9.36E-15
59 2.23E-65 1.94E-48 1.92E-36
85 estimated 1.69E-106 9.89E-82 5.73E-64

 

METHOD: POISSON PROBABILITY FUNCTION
LONDON SUNDAY TIMES ACTUARY: CALCULATION CONFIRMATION
1 in 100,000 trillion probability of 18 witness deaths by Feb. 1967
R unnatural rate 0.000209 weighted unnatural death rate
N witnesses 418 Warren Commission testified in person (source:CIA)
n deaths 18 13 unnatural; 5 natural
T years 3.26 3 years, 3 months (Nov ’63-Feb ’67)
E=R*N*T=0.000209 *418 * 3.26 E= 0.2848 expected unnatural deaths
P(13 unnatural deaths in 3.26 years) = 0.2848^13 * exp(-0.2848) / 13! = 9.80E-18
P(13) = Poisson (13, 0.2848, false)
P (13) = 1 in 102,081,079,385,890,000 = 1 in 102 thousand trillion
Calculation of R (weighted unnatural  death rate)
R = 0.000209 = (8*.000061+3*000658+2*000128)/13 (1964-66 average annual rate)
8 homicides 0.000061
3 accidents 0.000658
2 suicides 0.000128
Warren Commission Dealey Plaza HSCA Simkin Index
ALAN BELMONT Allen Sweatt “Lummie” Lewis Buddy Walthers
ALBERT BOGARD Bill Decker ALAN BELMONT C.D. Jackson
Allen Sweatt Billy Lovelady Carlos Prio Carlos Prio
Bill Decker Buddy Walthers Charles Nicoletti Charles Cabell
Billy Lovelady Charles Mentesana DAVID MORALES Charles Murret
BUDDY WALTHERS Charles Nicoletti DONALD KAYLOR Charles Nicoletti
Charles Murret Cliff Carter GEORGE DE MORENSCHILDT Clay Shaw
Cliff Carter Clint “Lummie” Lewis J.M. ENGLISH Cliff Carter
DE MORENSCHILDT David Morales JAMES CADIGAN Dave Yaras
DOMINGO BENAVIDES Earl Cabell James Weston David Ferrie
EARLE CABELL Frank Martin JOHN PAISLEY David Morales
Earlene Roberts Ira (Jack) Beers JOHNNY ROSELLI Desmond Fitzgerald
Edward Voebel J.A. Milteer LOUIS NICHOLS Earl Cabell
FRANK MARTIN J.D. Tippit MANUEL ARTIME Eladio Del Valle
HALE BOGGS Jack Ruby REGIS KENNEDY Frank Wisner
HAROLD RUSSELL James Chaney Robert Alan Surrey G DeMorenschildt
J. EDGAR HOOVER James Worrell Thomas Karamessines Guy Banister
JACK RUBY Johnny Roselli William Harvey J.Edgar Hoover
JAMES CADIGAN Ken O’Donnell William Pawley Jack Ruby
JAMES WORRELL Lee Bowers WILLIAM SULLIVAN Jimmy Hoffa
KAREN CARLIN Lee Harvey Oswald Johnny Roselli
Ken O’Donnell Mac Wallace Lucien Sarti
LEE BOWERS. Merriman Smith Lyndon Johnson
Lummie Lewis Roger Craig Mac Wallace
Paul Raigorodsky Roscoe White Manuel Artime
Philip Geraci Roy Kellerman Mary Sherman
ROGER CRAIG Thomas E. Davis Paul Helliwell
WARREN REYNOLDS William Whaley Richard Cain
WILLIAM WHALEY Roland Masferrer
Roscoe White
Sam Giancana
Thomas E. Davis
William Harvey
William Pawley
William Sullivan
Winston Scott
Dorothy Hunt
Grant Stockdale
J.D. Tippit
John Paisley
Lee Harvey Oswald
Mary Jo Kopechne
Mary Pinchot Meyer
Robert F. Kennedy
Sheffield Edwards
Thomas Karamessines
Bill Hunter
Dorothy Kilgallen
Hale Boggs
Jim Koethe
Merriman Smith
Alan Belmont
Bill Decker
Billy Lovelady
Earlene Roberts
Eddie Benavides
Florence Smith
Gary Underhill
James Truitt
Karyn Kupcinet
Ken O’Donnell
Lee Bowers
Lisa Howard
Nancy Carole Tyler
Roger Craig
Rose Cheramie
Roy Kellerman
Tom Howard
Warren Reynolds
William Pitzer

 

 
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Posted by on November 7, 2019 in Uncategorized

 

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