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 2016 National Exit Poll Race vote shares and corresponding Census weights indicate that Trump won the Popular vote

16 Nov

Richard Charnin
Nov.16, 2019

 2016 National Exit Poll vote shares and corresponding Census weights indicate that Trump won the Popular vote.

It is standard operating procedure: In every exit poll, all demographic crosstabs are adjusted to match the recorded vote.  But what if the exit poll weightings and/or vote shares are forced to match a bogus recorded vote? That means the polls are also bogus.

The NEP Race crosstab indicates that 71% of the electorate were white voters. Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.83 million (48.2-46.1%).

Census vote data indicate that white voters comprised 73.46% of the electorate. Using  Census weights and NEP vote shares, Trump is the winner  by 852,000 votes (47.5-46.8%).

Clinton won the 28 exit poll states by 49.2-45.2%.  But according to the exit polls, 68.9% of voters were white compared to 72.8% in the Census. The 3.9% discrepancy favored Clinton since Trump won whites by at least 20%. The 28 states represented 110.9  (81%) of 136.2 million votes.

Trump won the 23 non-exit poll states (25.4 million votes) by 50.4-43.7%.  The Census showed that whites were 76.2% of the vote in the 23 states.

View the sensitivity analysis matrix of alternative Trump shares scenarios. For instance, if Trump had 59% of whites and 22% of non-whites, he wins by 5.58 million votes (49.2-45.1%).

NEP Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 71.0% 37% 57% 6%
Black 12.0% 89% 8% 3%
Latino 11.0% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 4.0% 65% 27% 8%
Other 2.0% 56% 36% 8% Margin
Total 100.00% 47.93% 46.31% 5.76% 1.62%
136,216 65,288 63,082 7,846 2,207
Recorded 48.25% 46.17% 5.70% 2.08%
136,216 65,724 62,891 7,764 2,833
NEP Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 71.0% 37.0% 57.0% 6.0%
Non-white 29.0% 74.0% 21.0% 5.0% Margin
Total 100.0% 47.73% 46.56% 5.71% 1.17%
136,216 65,016 63,422 7,778 1,594
Recorded 48.25% 46.17% 5.70% 2.08%
136,216 65,724 62,891 7,764 2,833
Census Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 73.46% 37.0% 57.0% 6.0%
Non-white 26.54% 74.0% 21.0% 5.0% Margin
100.00% 46.82% 47.45% 5.73% 0.63%
136,216 63,776 64,628 7,811 852
Recorded 48.25% 46.17% 5.70% 2.08%
136,216 65,724 62,891 7,764 2,833
Trump%
White 57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0% 61.0%
Non-white Trump
25.0% 48.51% 49.24% 49.98% 50.71% 51.45%
24.0% 48.24% 48.98% 49.71% 50.45% 51.18%
23.0% 47.98% 48.71% 49.45% 50.18% 50.91%
22.0% 47.71% 48.45% 49.18% 49.91% 50.65%
21.0% 47.45% 48.18% 48.91% 49.65% 50.38%
Trump%
White 57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0% 61.0%
Non-white Clinton
25.0% 45.76% 45.02% 44.29% 43.55% 42.82%
24.0% 46.02% 45.29% 44.55% 43.82% 43.09%
23.0% 46.29% 45.55% 44.82% 44.09% 43.35%
22.0% 46.55% 45.82% 45.09% 44.35% 43.62%
21.0% 46.82% 46.09% 45.35% 44.62% 43.88%
Trump%
White 57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0% 61.0%
Non-white
Margin
25.0% 3,745 5,746 7,747 9,748 11,750
24.0% 3,022 5,023 7,024 9,025 11,027
23.0% 2,299 4,300 6,301 8,302 10,304
22.0% 1,575 3,577 5,578 7,579 9,581
21.0% 852 2,854 4,855 6,856 8,858

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17h3tOueSvQWwYFLwOEg3tCoIFdoB7wnEscsMgSFeDAk/edit#gid=1447777586

Tables 4A and 4B:    https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-580.html

 
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Posted by on November 16, 2019 in Uncategorized

 

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