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The Reuters/Ipsos impeachment polling scam: more confirmation of MSM duplicity

29 Nov

Richard Charnin
Nov. 29, 2019

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

The latest poll, conducted on Monday and Tuesday, found that 47% of adults in the United States felt Trump “should be impeached,” while 40% said he should not.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/reuters-peddles-democrat-heavy-poll-claiming-impeachment-support-growing

BUT THE REUTERS NUMBERS ARE MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE! How can -14.1% of Indies approve and -6.8% oppose impeachment?

The problem? Reuters sampled a disproportionate number of Democrats. Buried at the bottom of their report, they disclose:

“The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States. It gathered responses from 1,118 adults, including 528 Democrats (51%), 394 Republicans (38%) and 111 (11%) Independents. It has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 3 percentage points”.

Reuters…….. Approve Oppose (Implausible Party ID)
Rep 38%……. 20.0% 80.0%
Dem 51%…… 80.0% 20.0%
Ind 11%……. -14.1% -6.8% impossible negatives!
Poll………….. 47.0% 40.0% Bogus

Approval calculation: .47=.38*.20+.51*.80 +.11*(-.141)

Let’s adjust to plausible realistic Gallup voter affiliation weights and estimate the true percent of Independents who oppose impeachment.

Gallup………Approve Oppose (Plausible Party ID)
Rep 30% …… 20.0% 80.0%
Dem 31%…… 80.0% 20.0%
Ind 39%……… 23.6% 50.8%
Adjusted…… 40.0% 50.0% True

From Zerohedge: “After several major polls revealed a sharp decline in support for impeaching President Trump in the wake of unconvincing public testimony by aggrieved bureaucrats (and at least one House Democrat publicly opposing the move), Reuters/Ipsos now claims support for impeachment has increased.

“Reuters sampled more Democrats than Republicans and independents combined to arrive at their conclusion. They also reveal that ” about eight in 10 Democrats were supportive of impeaching Trump, and eight in 10 Republicans opposed”

The result, combined with Reuters/Ipsos polling over the past several weeks, showed that the number of Americans who want to impeach the president increasingly outnumbers those who do not. -Reuters

In the 2016 US election, Reuters/Ipsos was oversampling Democrats. Hillary Clinton had a giant lead over Donald Trump using a poll that sampled 44% Democrats and 33% Republicans.

I  analyzed the bogus CNN poll on Nov. 26:

CNN has 50% for impeachment, 43% against? That is just more BS propaganda. Who believes it? If you do, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. MSM polls are always over-weighted for the Dems.

The Gallup monthly voter affiliation survey is an accurate National tracking poll. Trump won the TRUE popular vote in 2016 and will win a landslide in 2020!

Bogus CNN poll: 50% approve, 43% oppose
CNN Pct…. Approve Oppose
Rep 25%……. 9.0% 84.0% Implausible
Dem 31%….. 85.0% 12.0%
Ind 44%……..48.6% 41.5%
Poll………….50.0% 43.0% Implausible

Adjusted: 44% approve, 55% oppose
Gallup Pct.. Approve Oppose
Rep 30%………..9.0% 90.0%  Plausible
Dem 31%……. 85.0% 12.0%
Ind 39%..,…… 38.0% 62.0%
Adjusted…… 44.0% 55.0% Plausible

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2019/11/16/2016-national-exit-poll-race-vote-shares-and-corresponding-census-weights-indicates-that-trump-won-the-popular-vote/
https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/26/politics/trump-cnn-impeachment-poll/index.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

 
2 Comments

Posted by on November 29, 2019 in Uncategorized

 

2 responses to “The Reuters/Ipsos impeachment polling scam: more confirmation of MSM duplicity

  1. mezmerrit

    December 30, 2019 at 11:49 am

    I thought it went without saying that media orgs only poll their own audience. But let’s face it, they aren’t mathematicians nor are their viewers.

     
  2. Sezsue

    February 24, 2020 at 12:23 am

    When I see poll numbers, I usually check how many Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have been polled. I noticed a long time ago that the numbers were ALWAYS skewed with more Democrats being polled, and quite often, more Independents than Republicans. Independents usually lean Democrat as well.
    I’ll usually comment on the controversial poll numbers, for example, reminding people that it’s not 57% of ALL Americans, but 57% of 1000 people who were polled, but more Dems were polled, etc.

     

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