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The Reuters/Ipsos impeachment polling scam: more confirmation of MSM duplicity

29 Nov

Richard Charnin
Nov. 29, 2019

The latest poll, conducted on Monday and Tuesday, found that 47% of adults in the United States felt Trump “should be impeached,” while 40% said he should not.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/reuters-peddles-democrat-heavy-poll-claiming-impeachment-support-growing

BUT THE REUTERS NUMBERS ARE MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE! How can -14.1% of Indies approve and -6.8% oppose impeachment?

The problem? Reuters sampled a disproportionate number of Democrats. Buried at the bottom of their report, they disclose:

“The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States. It gathered responses from 1,118 adults, including 528 Democrats (51%), 394 Republicans (38%) and 111 (11%) Independents. It has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 3 percentage points”.

Reuters…….. Approve Oppose (Implausible Party ID)
Rep 38%……. 20.0% 80.0%
Dem 51%…… 80.0% 20.0%
Ind 11%……. -14.1% -6.8% impossible negatives!
Poll………….. 47.0% 40.0% Bogus

Approval calculation: .47=.38*.20+.51*.80 +.11*(-.141)

Let’s adjust to plausible realistic Gallup voter affiliation weights and estimate the true percent of Independents who oppose impeachment.

Gallup………Approve Oppose (Plausible Party ID)
Rep 30% …… 20.0% 80.0%
Dem 31%…… 80.0% 20.0%
Ind 39%……… 23.6% 50.8%
Adjusted…… 40.0% 50.0% True

From Zerohedge: “After several major polls revealed a sharp decline in support for impeaching President Trump in the wake of unconvincing public testimony by aggrieved bureaucrats (and at least one House Democrat publicly opposing the move), Reuters/Ipsos now claims support for impeachment has increased.

“Reuters sampled more Democrats than Republicans and independents combined to arrive at their conclusion. They also reveal that ” about eight in 10 Democrats were supportive of impeaching Trump, and eight in 10 Republicans opposed”

The result, combined with Reuters/Ipsos polling over the past several weeks, showed that the number of Americans who want to impeach the president increasingly outnumbers those who do not. -Reuters

In the 2016 US election, Reuters/Ipsos was oversampling Democrats. Hillary Clinton had a giant lead over Donald Trump using a poll that sampled 44% Democrats and 33% Republicans.

I  analyzed the bogus CNN poll on Nov. 26:

CNN has 50% for impeachment, 43% against? That is just more BS propaganda. Who believes it? If you do, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. MSM polls are always over-weighted for the Dems.

The Gallup monthly voter affiliation survey is an accurate National tracking poll. Trump won the TRUE popular vote in 2016 and will win a landslide in 2020!

Bogus CNN poll: 50% approve, 43% oppose
CNN Pct…. Approve Oppose
Rep 25%……. 9.0% 84.0% Implausible
Dem 31%….. 85.0% 12.0%
Ind 44%……..48.6% 41.5%
Poll………….50.0% 43.0% Implausible

Adjusted: 44% approve, 55% oppose
Gallup Pct.. Approve Oppose
Rep 30%………..9.0% 90.0%  Plausible
Dem 31%……. 85.0% 12.0%
Ind 39%..,…… 38.0% 62.0%
Adjusted…… 44.0% 55.0% Plausible

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2019/11/16/2016-national-exit-poll-race-vote-shares-and-corresponding-census-weights-indicates-that-trump-won-the-popular-vote/
https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/26/politics/trump-cnn-impeachment-poll/index.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

 
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Posted by on November 29, 2019 in Uncategorized

 

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