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John Zogby poll: Trump job approval is 48%. Tied at 46% with Biden. My analysis.

18 Jun

Richard Charnin

June 18, 2020

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Since 2000, John Zogby has been my favorite independent pollster.

In the latest John Zogby poll Trump job approval is 48%. He is tied at 46% with Biden. Biden is performing very well with swing voters; Trump’s approval is 51% with Hispanics. Rasmussen Trump approval is 40% with Blacks. But it is early. I expect Trump to open a solid lead over the next few months.

“Election polls have so far been all over the map with some giving Biden a big advantage. While many pollsters overweight Democrats, Zogby keeps them even with Republicans at 36% and independents at 28%”.

Estimated vote shares required to match Zogby poll
Zogby……Trump Biden
Rep. 36%…94.0% 6.0%
Dem.36%…15.0% 85.0%
Ind.. 28%…24.1% 47.3% Swing voters
Poll……..46.0% 46.0%

If Trump gets 60% of the 2-party RECORDED white vote as he did in 2016 (he did better in the TRUE VOTE), and 45% of Other (non-whites), he would have nearly 56% of the 2-party vote.

Assuming Trump has 61% of the white vote, 15% of blacks and 40% of others, he wins by 51.9-48.1%.

Estimated True Vote
NEP……Pct Trump Biden
White…..71% 60% 40% 2016 recorded
Black…..12% 40% 60% Rasmussen
Hispanic..11% 51% 49% Zogby
Asian……4% 45% 55%
Other……2% 45% 55%
Calc….100% 55.7% 44.3%

………… Trump %White
………..57%…60%…62%
%Other ……..Vote share
45% …. 53.5% 55.7% 57.1%
40% …. 52.1% 54.2% 55.6%
35% …. 50.6% 52.8% 54.2%
30% …. 49.2% 51.3% 52.7%
25% …. 47.7% 49.9% 51.3%

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/dead-heat-trump-biden-tied-at-46-long-night-expected-on-election-day

 
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Posted by on June 18, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

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