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July 13: COVID-19 will soon no longer qualify as an epidemic

14 Jul

Richard Charnin
7/14/2020

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COVID-19 Will Soon No Longer Be An Epidemic At Current Rate of Decline – CDC


“Although infection rates are fluctuating, death rates remain flat and are likely to drop further, which will lead COVID-19 to soon no longer qualify as an epidemic”.

This can be found on the Mortality box on the CDC’s web page:
“Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.0% during week 25 to 5.9% during week 26, representing the tenth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC. The percentage is currently at the epidemic threshold but will likely change as more death certificates are processed, particularly for recent weeks.”

This change from epidemic rates to normalcy could happen as quickly as a few weeks from now”.

My analysis from the dates listed to 7/13 shows that cumulative U.S. death rates are DROPPING, not remaining flat.
From Rate
3/15 3.97%
5/1 3.03%
6/1 1.81%
7/1 1.10%

Since June 16 the total 0.87% death rate for the following states is lower than the corresponding 1.36% national rate:
……………CA……..TX……FL……AZ…….. total
Cases.. 175,907 180,798 204,217 87,069….. 647,991
Deaths ..1,951….1,308…1,330…..1,051……5,640
Rate…..1.11%… 0.72%….0.65%..1.21%……0.87%

View the calculations here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jbfznj3c27kKvF7Vpo9pWIeB69VsCAeVmwYjAEkIZL8/edit#gid=258532309

NCHS Mortality Surveillance Data
Updated July 10, 2020
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/07102020/nchs-mortality-report.html

 
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Posted by on July 14, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

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