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A COVID-19 probability quiz

24 Aug

Richard Charnin

Aug. 29. 2020

A COVID-19 probability quiz (updated 8/29)

Given: 55 daily cases and mortality rates since July 4.

Assume: the probability =1% that two consecutive days have the same mortality rate.

Calculate: the probability P that at least 6 consecutive date pairs have identical mortality rates.

P =1-BINOMDIST(5,55,0.01,true) = 1 in 52,497
Just a coincidence?

dates…….. rate (%)
July 4-5 … 0.56
July 21-22 1.67
Aug 6-7 … 2.04
Aug 13-14 1.85
Aug 16-17 1.42
Aug 28-29 2.23

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jbfznj3c27kKvF7Vpo9pWIeB69VsCAeVmwYjAEkIZL8/

 
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Posted by on August 24, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

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