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Zogby: Trump 36% approval among non-whites

29 Aug

Richard Charnin

Aug. 29, 2020

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The latest Zogby poll (taken on Aug. 17-19 before the convention) has Trump at 52% total approval with 36% approval among Blacks, Hispanics and Asians. Since the Republicans got a convention bounce, Trump’s total approval is probably higher than the poll indicates.

Assumption 1: Trump gets 61% of the two-party white vote as he did in 2016 and 36% of non-whites. Then he wins by 11.8 million votes with 54.3% of the two party vote.

Assumption 2: Trump gets 61% of whites and 24% of non-whites. Then he wins by 4.7 million votes with 51.7% of the two-party vote.

With these margins, he wins an Electoral Vote landslide.

2-party2020 forecast
Race2016 CensusBidenTrump
White73.31%39%61%
Black12.44%64%36%
Latino9.22%64%36%
Asian3.67%64%36%
Other1.36%64%36%
Total100.0%45.67%54.33%
136,21662,21374,003
Margin11,789

25 Forecast scenarios
Trump
% black
% other24%27%30%33%36%
36%52.8%53.2%53.6%54.0%54.3%
33%52.6%52.9%53.3%53.7%54.1%
30%52.3%52.7%53.0%53.4%53.8%
27%52.0%52.4%52.8%53.1%53.5%
24%51.7%52.1%52.5%52.8%53.2%
Margin
36%7,7238,7399,75610,77311,789
33%6,9697,9869,00310,01911,036
30%6,2167,2328,2499,26610,282
27%5,4626,4797,4958,5129,529
24%4,7085,7256,7427,7598,775

https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/952-the-zogby-poll-new-trump-job-approval-numbers

 
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Posted by on August 29, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

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