RSS

The following battleground states are ranked based on 2016 win probability and electoral vote

10 Sep

Richard Charnin

Sept. 10, 2020

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

The following battleground states are the ones Trump needs to focus on. It is safe to assume that he will win all 126 electoral votes from the deep red states that he won easily in 2016 (he had 306 total electoral votes). Therefore, he needs 154 additional EV from the list below to reach 270.

The state win probabilities are based on his 2016 recorded 2-party vote shares (he surely did better in the True Vote than the recorded vote shares).

FL, PA and MI are the most critical states based on rank.

stateEvote2016 winprob2020 winprobRankPct
IA699.95%95.0%121.0%
TX3899.90%95.0%766.2%
OH1899.74%95.0%362.9%
GA1695.9%95.0%352.8%
NC1589.4%90.0%383.1%
AZ1189.1%80.0%282.3%
FL2965.7%67.0%18515.1%
WI1060.5%62.0%957.7%
PA2059.7%55.0%20616.8%
MI1653.1%53.0%51742.1%
NH444.9%55.0%00.0%
MN1029.3%55.0%00.0%
NV619.9%25.0%00.0%
ME414.8%55.0%00.0%
CO94.0%10.0%00.0%
VA133.2%5.0%00.0%
NM50.1%5.0%00.0%

https://docs.google.com/…/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K…/edit…

Trump Clinton EV WinProb
55.1% 44.9%…. 6. 99.95% IA
54.7% 45.3%… 38. 99.9% TX
54.3% 45.7%… 18. 99.7% OH
52.7% 47.3%… 16. 95.9% GA
51.9% 48.1%… 15. 89.5% NC
51.9% 48.1%… 11. 89.1% AZ
50.6% 49.4%… 29. 65.7% FL
50.4% 49.6%… 10. 60.5% WI < 270 EV to win
50.4% 49.6%… 20. 59.7% PA
50.1% 49.9%… 16. 53.1% MI < 306 EV actual

Trump lost these states but could win them in 2020.
49.8% 50.2%….. 4. 44.9% NH
49.2% 50.8%… 10. 29.3% MN
48.7% 51.3%…. 6. 19.9% NV < 326 EV
48.4% 51.6%…. 4. 14.8% ME
47.3% 52.7%…. 9…4.0% CO < 339 EV
47.2% 52.8%… 13. 3.3% VA
45.3% 54.7%… 5. 0.12% NM <357 EV

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on September 10, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: