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What are the odds that FOUR Republicans, SIX Trump/Amy Barrett-related people and ZERO Democrats would be infected within a few days of the debate and the upcoming SC vote?

03 Oct

Richard Charnin

Oct.3, 2020

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What are the odds that FOUR Republicans, SIX Trump/Amy Barrett-related people and ZERO Democrats would be infected within a few days of the debate and the upcoming SC vote?…. President Trump, Senators Ron Johnson, Mike Lee and Tim Tillis.

The following 6 were also infected:Rep. Louis Gohmert got the virus last month (he recovered with HCQ). Others include Bill Stepien, President Trump’s campaign manager; Melania Trump, first lady; Hope Hicks, Trump advisor; John I. Jenkins, president of the University of Notre Dame; and Kellyanne Conway, former top White House adviser.

Given: 7 million out of 300 million infected. The probability that FIVE of 250 Republicans would be infected in 1 week: P= 1 in 7.5 million where P= poisson (5, 250* 7/300* 1/52, false)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_House_COVID-19_outbreak#Amy_Coney_Barrett_nomination_event,_September_26

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/02/us/trump-vs-biden?fbclid=IwAR2qNJTfN2YdTJhQ0hTH3tprmeJteeT5kR4WE8pVZu57eoSTTfJLB7tOp_k

 
2 Comments

Posted by on October 3, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

2 responses to “What are the odds that FOUR Republicans, SIX Trump/Amy Barrett-related people and ZERO Democrats would be infected within a few days of the debate and the upcoming SC vote?

  1. Neubeowulf

    October 3, 2020 at 9:36 pm

    Can you update these odds, since there are now 11 reported and they’re all GOP?

    And how does this take into affect the explanation of a super spreader at a political function? Which is the current reasoning made by the opposition.

    Thank you.

     
  2. Richard Charnin

    October 24, 2020 at 11:08 am

    I revised the post: The probability that SIX of 250 Republicans would be infected in 1 week:
    P= poisson (6, 250* 7/300* 1/52, false) = 1 in 404 million = 0.00000000247

    P confirms there was a super spreader.

     

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