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Debate infection Probabilities for Democrats and Republicans

05 Oct

Richard Charnin

Oct. 5, 2020

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Assume 100 people attended the Barrett nomination and/or the debate, 50 Dems and 50 Repubs. The probability of infection is 2%.

The probability that a) ZERO Dems would be infected is 0.364 and b) TEN Repubs would be infected is 1 in 21 million.

Binomial distribution
n1 inProb
02.750.364
12.690.372
250.186
3160.061
4690.015
53660.003
62,3920.000
718,6450.000
8169,9760.000
91,784,7530.000
1021,329,9700.000
nPoisson Prob (n of 50)prob
089.39%8.94E-01
110.03%1.00E-01
20.56%5.62E-03
30.02%2.10E-04
41 in 1 million5.90E-06
51 in 10 million1.32E-07
61 in 1 billion2.47E-09
71 in 100 billion3.97E-11
81 in 10 trillion5.56E-13
91 in 1000 trillion6.93E-15
101 in 100,000 trillion7.77E-17
 
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Posted by on October 5, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

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