Richard Charnin Oct. 25
What if you know 200 people in all age groups. What is the approximate probability P that 1, 2 or 3 died from Covid? Assume CDC reported deaths.
The probabilities are: P(1)=1/100; P(2)= 1/18,000; P(3)=1/5 million
The calculation function: P(n) = poisson (n, N*R*T, false) where n=number of deaths among N= 200 people, R=.00007= mortality rate based on the total U.S. population, T=.75 year (9 months).
Since 6% of Covid deaths had ZERO comorbidities, the approximate probabilities of pure Covid deaths would be much lower than above.