Probability of 1,2 or 3 Covid deaths in a group of 200

24 Oct

Richard Charnin Oct. 25


What if you know 200 people in all age groups. What is the approximate probability P that 1, 2 or 3 died from Covid? Assume CDC reported deaths.

The probabilities are: P(1)=1/100; P(2)= 1/18,000; P(3)=1/5 million

The calculation function: P(n) = poisson (n, N*R*T, false) where n=number of deaths among N= 200 people, R=.00007= mortality rate based on the total U.S. population, T=.75 year (9 months).

Since 6% of Covid deaths had ZERO comorbidities, the approximate probabilities of pure Covid deaths would be much lower than above.

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Posted by on October 24, 2020 in Uncategorized


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