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Trump projected Vote share range and corresponding Electoral Votes

26 Oct

Richard Charnin

Oct.26, 2020

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The following 2020 Election Model tables show six forecast scenarios of Trump vote shares and corresponding electoral votes. Trump’s margins range from a 5.6 million loss with 47.4%, a 3.4 million win with 50.4% and a 9.4 million win with 52.4%.

TurnoutParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem41,75327.8%90%9%1.0%
Rep43,29928.9%7%92%1.0%
Ind64,94843.3%47%51%2.0%
Share100%48.2%50.4%1.4%
Votes150,00072,22775,6352,138
Elect Vote538182356
Pop Vote52.4%51.4%50.4%49.4%48.4%47.4%
EVote382356356325291214
AK333333
AL999999
AR666666
AZ1111111111
CA
CO99999
CT
DC
DE
FL2929292929
GA161616161616
HI
IA666666
ID444444
IL
IN111111111111
KS666666
KY888888
LA888888
MA
MD
ME4444
MI161616
MN101010
MO101010101010
MS666666
MT333333
NC1515151515
ND333333
NE555555
NH444444
NJ14
NM555
NV666666
NY
OH181818181818
OK777777
OR
PA20202020
RI
SC999999
SD333333
TN111111111111
TX383838383838
UT666666
VA1313131313
VT
WA12
WI10101010
WV555555
WY333333

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=737914131

 
2 Comments

Posted by on October 26, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

2 responses to “Trump projected Vote share range and corresponding Electoral Votes

  1. Scott Matthew

    October 28, 2020 at 11:58 am

    at 291, you have him winning VA, without winning MI, PA or WI. How does that make sense?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      October 28, 2020 at 8:04 pm

      Good point. No model is perfect in all scenarios, especially when the states are close. The model gives a good general overview of various state vote shares and corresponding EV

       

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