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2020 Election forecast (subject to change on Nov.2)

27 Oct

Richard Charnin: Oct.27, 2020

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2020 Election forecast (subject to change on Nov.2)

Note: I forecast the electoral vote exactly in each of the last three elections. Will I do it again in 2020? I doubt it. It takes skill and luck. For those interested, I included a link below to my 2008 Election Model which used Monte Carlo simulation.

Model Forecast: Electoral Vote: Trump 356, Biden 182;

Popular Vote: Trump 51.7%, Biden 46.4%, Other 1.9%;

Votes (millions): Trump 77.5, Biden 69.6, Other 2.8 (7.9 million margin)

Assumptions:

1) 150 million votes and a fair count.

2) Trump wins 10% of Dems, 93% of Repubs and 51% of Independents. In 2016 Trump had 8%, 89%, 46%, respectively. Trump increases his share of Dems due to gains among Blacks, Hispanics and Dem Walkaways; his share of Repubs due to an energized base; his share of Independents due to fear of socialism.

3) Gallup voter affiliation (Sept. 14-28): 28% Rep, 27% Dem, 45% Ind. Assume equal % turnout for Dem and Rep.

Gallup voter affiliation survey (Oct. 3-15): 29% Rep, 31% Dem, 40% Ind. Trump’s margin declines from 7.9 to 4.1 million.

Note that both surveys were done before the final debate, the exploding Biden scandal and the historic 33% quarterly GDP growth rate.

9/14-28TurnoutParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem40,50027.0%89.0%10.0%1.0%
Rep42,00028.0%6.0%93.0%1.0%
Ind67,50045.0%46.0%51.0%3.0%
Total100.0%46.4%51.7%1.9%
Votes150,00069,61577,5352,850
Margin7,920

Sensitivity Analysis

Trump%Rep
Trump91.0%92.0%93.0%94.0%95.0%
% IndTrump%
55%52.9%53.2%53.5%53.8%54.1%
53%52.0%52.3%52.6%52.9%53.2%
51%51.1%51.4%51.7%52.0%52.3%
49%50.2%50.5%50.8%51.1%51.4%
47%49.3%49.6%49.9%50.2%50.5%
Biden%
55%45.2%44.9%44.6%44.3%44.1%
53%46.1%45.8%45.5%45.2%45.0%
51%47.0%46.7%46.4%46.1%45.9%
49%47.9%47.6%47.3%47.0%46.8%
47%48.8%48.5%48.2%47.9%47.7%
PctMargin
55%7.8%8.3%8.9%9.4%10.0%
53%6.0%6.5%7.1%7.6%8.2%
51%4.2%4.7%5.3%5.8%6.4%
49%2.4%2.9%3.5%4.0%4.6%
47%0.6%1.1%1.7%2.2%2.8%
VoteMargin
55%11,64012,48013,32014,16015,000
53%8,9409,78010,62011,46012,300
51%6,2407,0807,9208,7609,600
49%3,5404,3805,2206,0606,900
47%8401,6802,5203,3604,200

10/3-15TurnoutParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem46,50031.0%89.0%10.0%1.0%
Rep43,50029.0%6.0%93.0%1.0%
Ind60,00040.0%46.0%51.0%3.0%
Calc100.0%47.7%50.5%1.8%
Votes150,00071,59575,7052,700
Margin4,110

Model calculations https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=297739797

http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm

 
2 Comments

Posted by on October 27, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

2 responses to “2020 Election forecast (subject to change on Nov.2)

  1. bj

    October 31, 2020 at 11:06 pm

    Data for ballots requested/returned by party is available for some states. Will you factor any of this into your final analysis? There are far more ballots requested/returned by Democrats do you see this as an early sign of voter/election fraud?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      November 1, 2020 at 1:11 am

      We already have many indications of Democrat voter fraud (discarded Trump ballots, etc.). But I don’t plan on factoring them in. I focus on Gallup national and state party-id, voter turnout, 2016 vote shares and sensitivity analysis of forecast vote shares.

       

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